1st November - Selection rationale

Evening Guys and welcome to the first ’live’ post from the TVB Early Bird blog.

Just in case any of you were wondering, TVB stands for TheValueBettor and is the name that I’ve chosen to front my racing/betting activities. I like to think that it sums up my ‘gambling’ principals quite neatly J

Provided time etc. permits, I intend to post on this blog every evening, until the middle of March.

Often the posts will just be short summaries of the rationale behind any selections for the following day; occasionally, they will be something more grand (assuming I have something more grand to say !).

Tonight, it is a bit of a combination of the two: a justification for tomorrow’s tip (incorporated in a brief race preview) – and this little pre-amble to set the scene.

If you have any comments/observations/questions on either the blog in general – or a specific selection, please feel free to post.

I’m monitoring comments, just to ensure that the blog doesn’t get filled with spam – but I promise that I will publish and reply to, all reasonable (non-abusive !) comments, regardless of whether I agree with them or not !

One of my prime objectives in creating this blog, is to try and create a virtual community – and this will only be possible if people contribute, so don’t be shy !!

Whilst I’m interested in flat racing and bet on it just as much as I do NH, I don’t have the time during the flat season to study to the depths that do during the winter. Consequently, I’ve made a decision that I will only cover the NH on this blog.

So, without further ado, on to tomorrow’s selection and a preview of the race it is running in.

Exeter 2:50

What a cracking race this is – I really would have struggled to find a better race to tip in, at this point in the season.

What makes it truly fascinating, is that 3 of the best 2 mile novice chasers from last season, are making their seasonal debuts in the race and taking on a couple of seasoned top class handicappers – and a very interesting horse from Ireland.

I find it very difficult to split the 3 second season chasers: Captain Chris, Ghizao and Medermit. Although Captain Chris finished the season as the best of the 3, he was beaten twice by Ghizao earlier in the year – and also by Medermit.

So much is going to depend on which one has improved most over the summer – and which one is most primed for tomorrow.

You can only guess on both counts – though I have a real concern that non of the trio will be cherry ripe tomorrow…

Of the 2 seasoned handicappers, I feel that Cornas should have the beating of Oiseau De Nuit. Cornas finished in front on the same terms when the 2 met at Sandown at the back end of last season – and he has also had a pipe-opener in France 3 weeks ago when he finished second in a listed chase.

I struggle to see why Cornas is the longer price of the 2 (I doubt he will be come the off) and I suspect he will come out on top in a match bet.

The final runner (of significance) is the Colm Murphy trained Zaarito. He is a horse of enormous ability – but with very definite jumping frailties.

In his novice season, the season before last, he ran 8 times – and managed to fall on 4 occasions ! 3 of the falls occurred late in his races, and on each occasion he looked sure to go very close to winning, if he had stood up.   

His novice form ties in very closely with Sizing Europe and Captain Cee Bee. Both of those horses were top class novices – and both made the transition to top class chasers finishing first and third in last year’s champion chase.

In summary, I think fitness is going to prove crucial – and there are concerns on that score for the top 3 in the market who will all have bigger targets later in the season. There is also the unknown of how their novice form will stack up against more established performers.

Collectively, they take nearly 75% out of the book – so I don’t find it too hard to look elsewhere !

Cornas is the default winner of the race – if non of the others are tuned up. He is too big at 12/1 and maybe worth a small saver.

However, I’m going to take a chance that Zaarito’s jumping holds up and am selecting him.

There is little doubt he has the class/form to win this and I think it is reasonable to assume that Colm Murphy wouldn’t be sending him over from Ireland if he needed the run.

1.5pt win Zaarito 8/1

Exeter 3:50

I was half tempted to tip Strongbows Legend in this.

He comes from the Charlie Longsdon stable which is absolutely flying at the moment and he ran a really sound race on his seasonal debut, splitting 2 horses which have subsequently franked the form.
However, he has been raised 3lb for that effort and now has to take on 16 rivals – a number of whom are unexposed and open to improvement.

Ultimately, it comes down to price (as it invariably does) and at 7/1, I felt there would be better bets in the forthcoming weeks/months.

I’ll be keeping a close eye on the race, all the same !

Fingers crossed we can get off to a good start.

TVB