Thoughts from the day...

Just a few quick words on today – as much for my benefit as for the benefit of my readers !!

Whilst it was disappointing that Exeter was abandoned – and consequently a potentially great bet didn’t get the chance to deliver. If I’m honest, I think that it might actually have been a blessing in disguise…

There can be little doubt, that Plein Pouvoir was a tremendous bet at 20/1 last night, however, with the benefit of hindsight, I’m not convinced he warranted a 3 point stake…

I think there are 3 components to a tip:

- The Horse

- The Oppositon

- The Price

I think I got blinded by the price last night and lost sight a little of the fact that ‘the horse’ – and ‘the opposition’ were not perfect…

What I mean by that, is that the conditions were not perfect for Plein Pouvoir. They shouldn’t have been an issue (or he wouldn’t have been a tip !); however, ideally, he would have been carrying top weight in bottomless ground. That wasn’t the case, so that element of the tip, shouldn’t have ‘scored’ a maximum.

Similarly, the opposition weren’t a walk-over: I mentioned 3 potential dangers and also suggested there were a further 3 more that I thought had a chance.

It wasn’t a ‘red hot’ race, but it wasn’t a formality either.

So again, that element of the tip, shouldn’t have scored a maximum.

What couldn’t be faulted, was the price ! That was clearly way out of line. However, I’m not sure we should really be staking 3 points on a horse, purely because it is significantly over-priced.

Whilst in theory this will make us rich – in reality, we could go a long time and lose a lot of money before we collect !

In fairness, I have to make very quick decisions on both the horses and the staking – and I won’t always get it right. However, I think I need better guidelines to help me decide on staking – and that is the main purpose of this post !!

The other issue with tipping the night before is the impact it has on the price. Causing the price of a horse to crash form 20/1 to 7/1 the next morning might actually be self defeating. If connections are forced to take less than half the price they wanted, then there has to be a danger that they will choose to wait for another day…

I think that is less of a risk, the more valuable the race – but it has to be a danger in any race worth less than £10K…

Anyway, something for me to think about. Maybe I/we got a lesson today without having to pay for it (that’s the way I would like to view it any how !!)

Just one final point:

I was intrigued to watch the run of Lucky Landing today…

As has been the case in all of his races so far this season, he travelled really well in the race – once again trading odds on IR.

The key thing I wanted to watch, was how he responded when put under pressure.

That happened about 2 furlongs out, when he was challenged and the eventual winner went past him.

I fully expected him to capitulate at that point, as he has done previously – but he didn’t. Instead, he battled and briefly looked like he might get back up.

Now I don’t want to read too much into a performance in a poor bumper at Southwell (the opposition could well all have been donkeys !). But, if this horse is over his physical problems, he is dangerously well handicapped.

What’s more, we are aware of that possibility and few others will be (this is called an edge ;) ).

I’ll be keeping a careful eye on him next time he runs – and may even be tempted to tip him again. However, be warned, he is more likely to be a 1point tip than a 3 point one ;)

TVB.

12th February - Selection rationale

I don’t suppose that too many of my regular followers were surprised to see me tipping Plein Pouvoir…

We’ve been on him the last twice – and I think I’ve suggested previously, that he is a horse I intend to follow during the winter months, until he wins (which he will – trust me !!).

I saw he was running tomorrow, when I looked through the declarations early this afternoon…

Between races at Mussleburgh, I checked out the opposition and although I don’t see the race as a cake-walk for Plein, I reckon he should go pretty close.

I was therefore staggered, when B365 put up an opening show of 20/1 !

I honestly didn’t know what to do (other than get as much on him as I dared !)

With regard to actually tipping him, I figured I should wait a little while – firstly to let the market settle and secondly to see what price the other bookmakers were going to put him up at.

Paddy Power priced up second and they went 9/1 – which was much more like it !

However, that inevitably put B365s quote under pressure. William Hill helped a little with a quote of 16/1 – but at this point, I lost my nerve and issued !

With regard to tomorrow’s race and his chance in it:

Firstly, he is no certainty – let’s get that straight ! I’ve staked him to the max because he was a tremendous ‘value’ bet at 20/1.

At 8/1 (or whatever he goes off), he would be a 1 point bet…

Simply, he is a horse who is gradually running himself into form; he will enjoy tomorrow’s conditions (though if it were even softer, that would be better still); he has dropped 2lb from a very good run last time (when he was just a little free) and is now only 3lb above the mark form which he bolted up last season.

In short, there is no reason why he shouldn’t run a very big race – and 20/1 was a crazy price.

On the flip side, I can see dangers in the race. Valley View is progressive and has Maurice Linehan on board; Sherwani Wolf has scope for improvement and Roi de Rose already has a verdict over Plein this season (though when Plein was not fully wound up). I could also make more speculative cases for 2 or 3 others…

However, Plein Pouvoir was priced up as an outsider – and that simply wasn’t right.

He may not win tomorrow – he may not even place – but he is definitely one of my best tips so far !

Fingers crossed that the meeting goes ahead and he can then hopefully prove that point…

2pt win 1pt place Plein Pouvoir 20/1

Just a quick note on another former ‘maximum’ tip, Lucky Landing…

Again, he is a horse we’ve followed closely this season – and who appears to have some physical issue (with his breathing, I guess).

He runs tomorrow in one of the ‘bumpers for jumpers’ races at Southwell. He has switched trainer from Donald McCain to Tony Coyle and it will be interesting to see if the ‘change in scenery’ is able to bring about any improvement in him…

Fascinating game this, isn’t it ;)

TVB

11 February - Race reviews

Quite amazingly, for the third month in succession, the first tip of the month was successful !

And once again it was a double figure priced horse, that was hammered in the betting.

Unfortunately, my staking wasn’t so smart and we are winning less and less on these tips – but I’ll know the score for March ;)

In truth, it was a hell of a day’s tipping….

In the first race that I mentioned last night, Devotion to Duty and Moonlight Drive looked set to fight out the finish, only to get pipped by Everaard.

I couldn’t figure out whether it was a good result for me or not ! I would probably have tipped Devotion to Duty EW (as I did last Sunday), so it would have been a small profit – but irritating to miss out on a big one.

On the other side, I did back Devotion to Duty, so that was a bit annoying (though something I am very used to !).

Tara Royal ran in the second race that I covered last night – and I think it is fair to say that he absolutely bolted up !

Not only that, he was backed to do so – something that I just couldn’t have foreseen (a little like Toby Belch, the other week).

I’ve no idea how I manage to pick these steamers, but I’ve certainly got a knack !

It is no exaggeration to say that, at no point in the race did he ever look like losing. He cantered in behind the leaders; cantered into the lead; and won very comfortably.

If only it always worked out like that !

Ultimate ran the kind of race I expected – though I will have to look at it again to see if there was sufficient promise in his run for me to consider getting involved with him at Cheltenham.

Shadows Lengthen ran a fair race in the Scottish Count hurdle, to finish fifth.

He travelled well throughout the race, but just couldn’t find sufficient when it was required.

He did look like he might prefer a slightly stiffer test – which may explain why he was tried over further last time.
Whatever, he wasn’t good enough today.

Credit to the guy who commented that he fancied Ubi Ace in the race (I’ve got a lot of time for people who are prepared to express an opinion BEFORE a race takes place). Ubi Ace ran really well and was unlucky not to collect. He is clearly still progressing and seem well suited by the course (something I wasn’t convinced would be the case, beforehand).

Even more credit however, to the legendary Tom Segal (Pricewise),who managed to tip the first and second ! The guy really is a freak. How he manages to nail big race after big race, is beyond me (even if he did read Ultimate wrongly ;) ).
He really should be cherished - tipsters like Tom don't come round very often...

Anyway, on to the last race of the day, where Cape Dutch was backed down to 6./4 and duly won with ease.

I did toy with putting him up last night (as I considered he had a very, very good chance) but I’ve found that if you start operating in an unfamiliar area (ie. short priced horses) your judgement is never as good.

I’ll just stick to my 16/1 winners for the time being – I’m guessing you can all cope with that ;)

TVB

11th February - Selection rationale

It seems a long time since I last wrote up the rationale for a tip…

They say that a week is a long time in politics, well it is certainly a long time in race horse tipping !

Anyway, domestic NH racing looks like it will be back tomorrow – and whilst it will not be with the bang that Newbury would doubtless have provided, the card at Mussleburgh is quite acceptable.

I’ve decided to ease back into things with just a couple of small tips.

I could easily have tipped a couple more – but I missed the price on one, and the other is too short (even though I think it will hack up !)

So, without further ado, here is the rationale behind February’s first 2 tips…!

Mussleburgh 3:10

This is a very competitive race – and it is also likely to be something of a burn up !

Mussleburgh is a notoriously quick track – and there are also 4 or 5 runners in the race, who like to make the pace. As a result, the action is likely to be fast and furious !

With such competition for the lead, I think it makes sense to look for a horse who tends to be more patiently ridden (if there is a battle for the lead, a finisher should be able to take advantage).

Tara Royal is such a horse and I think he has a fair chance of getting involved where it counts.

He was shaping up into a decent novice chaser at the beginning of last season; finishing runner up to Divers, Wishful Thinking and Stagecoach Pearl (all 3 are now rated much higher than he is). His season was cut short however and he didn’t run from last November until this December.

Despite that absence, he was sent off a 4/1 shot on his seasonal debut, for a hot 2mile chase at Ascot. Unfortunately, he fell that day (when moving well) – and jumping has been a bit of an issue for him…

However, it has improved in his last 3 outings – and the fences at Mussleburgh are relatively soft.

In his penultimate run at Warwick , he finished third to Marodima, 5 lengths behind the runner-up, Gracchus. He meets that horse on 6lb better terms tomorrow, which should be enough to turn the tables – and yet is available at almost double the price…

One horse I will be keeping an eye on tomorrow, is Ultimate. In different circumstances, I could quite fancy him for the race but I believe he is being aimed at the Grand Annual chase at the festival. As thing stands, he will get into that race with a very low weight. If he were to win tomorrow, his rating would rise – and so his chances of winning the Grand Annual would reduce.

I expect to see him run a fair race tomorrow – but to weaken up the home straight. If that scenario does materialise, then there is a chance that we could be looking at one of our future Cheltenham ante-post bets ;)

0.5pt EW Tara Royal 16/1

Mussleburgh 3:45

Although there is a runner less than in the previous race, if anything, this is even more competitive !

You really couldn’t write off any of the runners with confidence, so it is a question of finding one with a chance better than the odds imply - and hopefully Shadows Lengthen falls into that category...

He had been progressing nicely this season, following a fair run at Bangor with a good win at Doncaster. However, he was then beaten at Catterick – though that was over 2m4f and the hope is that dropping him back to 2miles will see him continue with his earlier progression…

Koup De Kanon is the other horse in the race, that really interests me – and anyone who managed to secure some of the 10/1 offered early by Boylesports, has got themselves a decent bet.

He ran well in the Cheltenham race won by Module, seeming not quite to get home that day. On this easier course, he has to be a big danger, if he runs to the same level of form.

1pt win Shadows Lengthen 12/1

Just a few quick words on the ones that got away (or, more accurately, the ones I chose not to tip tomorrow !).

In the 2:45 race, I was tempted by both Moonlight Drive and Devotion to Duty (who I tipped when the race was originally scheduled to be run, last Sunday).

However, I missed the 8/1 available early on the former – and 6/1 is quite tight for a horse who comes with significant risks. Similarly, the 16/1 on Devotion to Duty, soon became a general 12/1, which didn’t look sufficiently attractive for a horse whom I feel has a ‘fair’ chance.

The other horse that I haven’t tipped tomorrow (!), is Cape Dutch, who runs in the finale on the card.

The reason for this, is simply the price. I don’t tip (or back) 5/2 shots – even if I think they should be much shorter !

If you do like to play at that end of the market, then I suspect he is a good bet – but I’m afraid he can’t be a TVB tip !

Let’s hope that at least one of the two horses that are tips, can get the month off to a good start (if a little belatedly). And if they can’t I just hope that non of the horses that I didn’t tip, make me regret my decision to leave them alone…

TVB.

And the winner is....

After 3 days of frenzied voting, the TVB public have decided on the greatest TVB tip so far – and that prestigious accolade goes to (cue drum roll…):

Fiendish Flame !!

As with all great champions, he was forced to battle all the way for his victory, with both Carruthers and Mark the Book pressing him throughout the final few furlongs.
However, Fiendish Flame showed enough class to see them both off and ultimately come home a comfortable winner.

A highly creditable 42 votes were cast and Fiendish Flame took a praiseworthy 12 of those (28%).
In second place, Carruthers managed 9 votes (21%) whilst Mark the Book took 6 votes (14%).

For what it is worth, if I’d been allowed to vote, Fiendish Flame would have won slightly more easily…

Those of you with an ATR account, might want to watch the race again. It really was all over after they had jumped a hurdle…!

http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/?va=LES_2011_12_01_03_1400

Anyway, after that pleasant interlude, it is back to the serious business of finding more winners – or not !!

The reality is that the freezing weather is showing little sign of relenting and it could easily be next weekend before the next TVB tip is able to run in anger.

Still, there is nothing we can do about it, we just have to be patient.

I have had another look at the Cheltenham ante-post markets, in case I could see any fresh angles there, but nothing jumped out.

The trouble is, the Championship races are almost looking foregone conclusions, whilst there is still much doubt over the participation of various runners, in many of the other contests.

However, we shouldn’t forget that patience is a virtue – so we have all just got to be virtuous for a little while longer…

In the forthcoming week, I’ll do as I’ve done the last few days and continue to try and find tips, in the hope that meetings will take place – but I’m not going to spend time on the write ups until meetings are confirmed as on.

I’m hoping that one little bonus that has come from reliving all the great tips so far, is that it will have set my mind right for when the action does finally resume. That being the case, I'm optimistic that I'll be able to push Fiendish Flame out of the top 3, by the end of the Cheltenham festival ;)

TVB

What is the greatest TVB tip so far..?!

With the cold snap really starting to bite and us facing our third consecutive day without tips tomorrow (plus the unthinkable prospect of a Saturday with no racing !), I thought you might all fancy a light distraction…

I’ve now been producing the TVB earlybird tips for 3 full months – and have issued well over 100 selections.

I’m sure you’ve all got your favourites ( ;) ) but the questions is, which is the greatest TVB tip so far ?!

Which such quality on a daily basis ( ;) again !) I appreciate this will be a difficult  decision for most of you. So to help, I’ve pulled out a dozen of the finest thus far…

Maybe a little surprisingly, they are not all winners – but each has considerable merit.

So, it’s down the you, the TVB public, to nominate your TVB tip of the season so far !

The short-list can be found below, with a little memory jogger against each horse. In order to vote for your favourite, you have to select an option from the poll on the right hand side.

It is just one vote per person, so use yours wisely !

I will publish the results on Sunday evening…

- Frontier Dancer             The first TVB winner – and a 2pointer to boot !

- Wise Hawk                   Did everything but win – and at 25/1

- Roalco De Farges          The longest priced TVB winner with an SP of 22/1 – tasty !

- Carruthers                     The first half of the unforgettable Hennessey forecast

- Hey Big Spender           A confident selection, who always looked like winning

- Fiendish Flame              The easiest TVB winner – and staked accordingly

- Otage De Brion             He would have hacked up – wouldn’t he ?!

- Mostly Bob                  Came from an impossible position to break the losing streak

- Ockey De Neulliac       Just how easy did he win ?!

- Mark the Book             Powered home in the Chepstow mud

- Toby Belch                  The plunge of the season !

- Module                        An inspired example of reading between the lines

What a selection !

Enjoy your reminiscing …

TVB

January monthly summary

The cold snap may not be good news for the tipping – but it should at least enable me to get on top of the admin, which has to be a good thing ;)

When I had a ‘proper’ job, I used to hate having to produce a monthly report – but now I do it out of choice, it is something I rather look forward to.
I find it really interesting to analyse my performance for the month and see where I got things right – and wrong !

Fortunately, there was a little more of the former than the latter, during January, which was good to see, after the disappointment of December…

Firstly the headline figures:

38 selections (in 34 races)

36.5pts staked

15pts profit (so an ROI of 41%)

The first thing to point out, is that I’ve recorded the number of races, in addition to the number of selections.

This is in response to me tipping multiple horses in some of the more competitive races (normally on a Saturday). 

Obviously, this makes no difference to the overall P&L for the month – however, when I start looking at how the horses actually performed, it does become important.

If I tip 38 horses in 34 races, then the maximum number of winners I can tip is 34. Not even I can tip multiple winners of the same race !.

The second thing of note from the headline figures, is that I staked significantly less points and in less races, than I did in December. The numbers are actually much closer to those posted in November.

I think the less races,was due mainly to me reacting to having less time. Simply, I didn’t look at as many races as I did in December, so I was always unlikely to tip in as many of them…

The less points, is probably a result of my conservative nature kicking in, partly in response to the poor December. Only 2 selections in January warranted 2pt bets – compared to 8 in December. I think I need to try and find a middle ground in this area…

Looking at the results in more detail:

9 of the selections finished first or second – which is around the target of 25% (just above or below, depending on whether you look at the number of selections or the number of races). Unlike December, 5 of these selections won – and this is the biggest single difference between the 2 months.

A further 5 selections finished third – but non fourth. Meaning that that just under the target 50% of selections, were placed (which is where I aim to be).

Average odds of selections were again just below 13/1, which is fine.

Interestingly, the 5 winners was actually more than I managed in November, yet the profits for the month were significantly less.

This is due in part to the fact that 2 of January’s 5 winners, were marginal bets (Reindeeer Dippin and Module). Although it would have been better if I had staked more on these 2 horses, the reality is that without a conscious switch to more marginal bets, both would most likely have been missed…

The ratio of price taken to Betfair Starting Price (adjusted for points staked) was roughly where it has sat throughout this ‘project’.

If you have simply bet every selection tipped in January, at the odds advised, to the stake advised – and then layed off the bet at BSP, you would have made 11.59pts profit.

With 10.6pts profit in November and 13.3pts profit in December, there is getting to be a scary consistency in this area !!

As I suggested earlier, if there is one area where January was weak, I think it was the staking. There were only 2 bets of 2pts – and non of more than this.

That said, I have no issue with the staking on any of January’s winners – apart from maybe Ockey De Neulliac, though I did reduce the potential stake on him because of ‘the Ferdy factor’ !

So, all in all, I think January can go down as a very solid month – and probably a fair reflection of what I can achieve.

From a profit perspective, it sat bang in the middle of November and December, which again, suggests it is a fair representation.

Despite the passing of Christmas, time continues to be a big issue for me – though I’m not sure there is a lot I can do about it.

As I’ve mentioned before, I fit the tipping in around my other commitments and they are currently running at a greater level than expected.

This situation is not likely to change this month, so I’ve just got to deal with it.

That said, I think I dealt with it reasonably well during January, so hopefully, I will be able to do the same during February !!

TVB.