I don’t suppose that too many of my regular followers were surprised to see me tipping Plein Pouvoir…
We’ve been on him the last twice – and I think I’ve suggested previously, that he is a horse I intend to follow during the winter months, until he wins (which he will – trust me !!).
I saw he was running tomorrow, when I looked through the declarations early this afternoon…
Between races at Mussleburgh, I checked out the opposition and although I don’t see the race as a cake-walk for Plein, I reckon he should go pretty close.
I was therefore staggered, when B365 put up an opening show of 20/1 !
I honestly didn’t know what to do (other than get as much on him as I dared !)
With regard to actually tipping him, I figured I should wait a little while – firstly to let the market settle and secondly to see what price the other bookmakers were going to put him up at.
Paddy Power priced up second and they went 9/1 – which was much more like it !
However, that inevitably put B365s quote under pressure. William Hill helped a little with a quote of 16/1 – but at this point, I lost my nerve and issued !
With regard to tomorrow’s race and his chance in it:
Firstly, he is no certainty – let’s get that straight ! I’ve staked him to the max because he was a tremendous ‘value’ bet at 20/1.
At 8/1 (or whatever he goes off), he would be a 1 point bet…
Simply, he is a horse who is gradually running himself into form; he will enjoy tomorrow’s conditions (though if it were even softer, that would be better still); he has dropped 2lb from a very good run last time (when he was just a little free) and is now only 3lb above the mark form which he bolted up last season.
In short, there is no reason why he shouldn’t run a very big race – and 20/1 was a crazy price.
On the flip side, I can see dangers in the race. Valley View is progressive and has Maurice Linehan on board; Sherwani Wolf has scope for improvement and Roi de Rose already has a verdict over Plein this season (though when Plein was not fully wound up). I could also make more speculative cases for 2 or 3 others…
However, Plein Pouvoir was priced up as an outsider – and that simply wasn’t right.
He may not win tomorrow – he may not even place – but he is definitely one of my best tips so far !
Fingers crossed that the meeting goes ahead and he can then hopefully prove that point…
2pt win 1pt place Plein Pouvoir 20/1
Just a quick note on another former ‘maximum’ tip, Lucky Landing…
Again, he is a horse we’ve followed closely this season – and who appears to have some physical issue (with his breathing, I guess).
He runs tomorrow in one of the ‘bumpers for jumpers’ races at Southwell. He has switched trainer from Donald McCain to Tony Coyle and it will be interesting to see if the ‘change in scenery’ is able to bring about any improvement in him…
Fascinating game this, isn’t it ;)
TVB
Price has collapsed already Andy, hills are 13/2 now and b365 7s :o
ReplyDeleteTis truly a value bet, I managed to get the point ew on at 20s but then had to take 14s for the point. Best of luck mate
If ever a price collapse was inevitable Ciaran, it was with this one...
ReplyDeleteStill, like you say, you managed to get some of the 20/1 - and I guess one or two others did as well.
At the end of the day, the 20/1 was going to go sooner rather than later - so it may as well be TVB followers that benefit.
Next we need the meeting to be given the green light; then we need Plein to have read the script.
Here's hoping...
TVB.
Tommorow I will have a bet on Treacle in the Hennessy Gold Cup. Backed at 65 BSP and 16 BSP for a place with intention to trade out inrunning. I will approach small, but I just think its a value bet.
ReplyDeleteFrom form the mass will underrate Treacle as its first time Grade 1, but i think this horse has some abilities. From his physical look its decent for a 3mile trip, it moves very fluent straightforward with nice headcarriage, its an 11 year old, but LTO it looked very good in a big field Hcp here in Leopardstown, when they quickened late and it stayed on very strongly to take 2nd despite a poor pace set up for it in my view. Townend is booked and I think that the favourite Quel Esprit will set a very steady good pace, which will bring the staying abilities from Treacle out, in Lim on 11/10/09 it raced in a 66k 3mile race when they went smilar to Quel Esprits racing style a steady good gallop and it finished with Townend very strongly 1st place. I fancy Quel Esprit in this, but valuewise I will try to sneak a place with Treacle.
In your race I fancy big time Requin if coming back to form, his 2nd LTO was a good perfromance against The Minack, and in spring he finisihed close up to really good horses like the As De Fer, Hidden Keel,Down The Stretch and Mohayer. Loves it around Exeter. LTO was really bad and I cannot find an excuse for this run but, because the odds are 15.0 BSP i will still back it.
ReplyDeleteI certainly think Requin has a chance in the Exeter race.
ReplyDeleteLike you say, his run behind The Minack was good - and in a way, his run last time out, was too bad to be true.
I wouldn't put you (or anyone else) off having a saver on him, that's for sure...
With regard to Treacle, then I have a general rule not to comment on the Irish racing (as it is my area of true expertise ;) ), however I'll make a brief excpetion here...
I think Treacle is outsider of the party for good reason...
I guess he could get closer than I would expect - but simply becasue I think there are question marks over most of today's field.
In terms of value - and if you want a back to lay IR - then there is only one horse to look at...
I think that Follow the Plan will run a huge race. Whether he will quite have the stamina to get home, I'm not sure. But I expect him to be in with every chance turning for home - and then it will simply be down to how good the opposition truly are...
Thank you very much for your detailed response and your effort.
ReplyDeleteA shame that the nice Exeter card is abandoned. I wanna say something to your selection aswell, I think it would have been a great bet at your price and I see why you fancy it it over Roi de Rose, its also an interesting horse from its size and runnign style and certainly rund more fluent than Roi De Rose. Requin would have been a bet to me at these odds, as I think LTo couldnt have beeen his true form. He actually didnt look ridden at all and on impression from races before could have been under this form a little standout against these, but still there is a big why in is last perfromance. Treacle I wouldnt expect to win, but I cant see the odds in his true probability as I really think it will benefit the company from high class horses that go steady.
I think you will have done very well not to lose on Treacle today – which is a shame, as I thought the horse ran a tremendous race !
ReplyDeleteHowever, he was clearly ridden simply to get the best placing he could – and with no attempt to win the race. That was fine for connections (who pocketed £14K for his efforts) but not so good for you if you backed him – even with a view to laying IR (as he never touched below 65).
It will be interesting to see how the handicapper reacts to the performance. He is currently rated 132 – but I reckon he ran to a level of around 146 today.
I’m sure the run won’t have gone unnoticed by the handicapper – which was apparently the intention.
Connections want him to run in the Grand National but he will need to be rated around 140 if that is to happen.
Assuming he is given that kind of mark by the handicapper when he is re-assessed, I could certainly think of worse 40/1 shots to be backing for the big race…
Follow the Plan also ran a fair race – though he too was probably ridden a little too far out of his ground.
Unlike Treacle he was able to get into a challenging position on the home turn but he ran out of stamina after the last (as I feared he might).
He didn’t trade IR as low as I would have liked (10) – but that is always a risk when you have a front running favourite.
TVB