Thoughts from the day...

Just a few quick words on today – as much for my benefit as for the benefit of my readers !!

Whilst it was disappointing that Exeter was abandoned – and consequently a potentially great bet didn’t get the chance to deliver. If I’m honest, I think that it might actually have been a blessing in disguise…

There can be little doubt, that Plein Pouvoir was a tremendous bet at 20/1 last night, however, with the benefit of hindsight, I’m not convinced he warranted a 3 point stake…

I think there are 3 components to a tip:

- The Horse

- The Oppositon

- The Price

I think I got blinded by the price last night and lost sight a little of the fact that ‘the horse’ – and ‘the opposition’ were not perfect…

What I mean by that, is that the conditions were not perfect for Plein Pouvoir. They shouldn’t have been an issue (or he wouldn’t have been a tip !); however, ideally, he would have been carrying top weight in bottomless ground. That wasn’t the case, so that element of the tip, shouldn’t have ‘scored’ a maximum.

Similarly, the opposition weren’t a walk-over: I mentioned 3 potential dangers and also suggested there were a further 3 more that I thought had a chance.

It wasn’t a ‘red hot’ race, but it wasn’t a formality either.

So again, that element of the tip, shouldn’t have scored a maximum.

What couldn’t be faulted, was the price ! That was clearly way out of line. However, I’m not sure we should really be staking 3 points on a horse, purely because it is significantly over-priced.

Whilst in theory this will make us rich – in reality, we could go a long time and lose a lot of money before we collect !

In fairness, I have to make very quick decisions on both the horses and the staking – and I won’t always get it right. However, I think I need better guidelines to help me decide on staking – and that is the main purpose of this post !!

The other issue with tipping the night before is the impact it has on the price. Causing the price of a horse to crash form 20/1 to 7/1 the next morning might actually be self defeating. If connections are forced to take less than half the price they wanted, then there has to be a danger that they will choose to wait for another day…

I think that is less of a risk, the more valuable the race – but it has to be a danger in any race worth less than £10K…

Anyway, something for me to think about. Maybe I/we got a lesson today without having to pay for it (that’s the way I would like to view it any how !!)

Just one final point:

I was intrigued to watch the run of Lucky Landing today…

As has been the case in all of his races so far this season, he travelled really well in the race – once again trading odds on IR.

The key thing I wanted to watch, was how he responded when put under pressure.

That happened about 2 furlongs out, when he was challenged and the eventual winner went past him.

I fully expected him to capitulate at that point, as he has done previously – but he didn’t. Instead, he battled and briefly looked like he might get back up.

Now I don’t want to read too much into a performance in a poor bumper at Southwell (the opposition could well all have been donkeys !). But, if this horse is over his physical problems, he is dangerously well handicapped.

What’s more, we are aware of that possibility and few others will be (this is called an edge ;) ).

I’ll be keeping a careful eye on him next time he runs – and may even be tempted to tip him again. However, be warned, he is more likely to be a 1point tip than a 3 point one ;)

TVB.