Cheltenham Day 3

Another engrossing day today – with the inevitable ups and downs…

It started really well, as 2 of the 3 tips for the National Hunt chase, fought out the finish from the home turn.

Having looked the most likely to succeed, Four Commanders just couldn’t maintain his effort up the final hill, enabling Teaforthree to battle his way back to the front.

The other selection, Daffern Seal, also ran an honourable race to finish sixth. He travelled particularly well in rear and is definitely one to keep an eye out for in the coming weeks…

2 of the 3 selections in the second race were non-runners – which was probably a blessing in disguise, considering how comfortably Simonsig won.
The third, Benefficient, ran a fair enough race, briefly looking as if he might play a hand in the finish, but he was ultimately well beaten…

Grands Crus proved a major disappointment in the RSA chase. It is difficult to know whether he didn’t get home – or whether something just wasn’t right with him.

Whatever, he was beaten entering the home straight, leaving our ante-post selection, First Lieutenant, to fight out the finish with Bobs Worth.

There was little early pace in the race (as rather oddly, Mr Moonshine was held up) and as a consequence, First Lieutenant ran a bit too free.

I suspect that was a major factor in him not getting home quite as well as Bobs Worth.

So it was the place money we picked up rather than the win money – a disappointment, but these things happen…

I was thinking exactly the same after just one fence of the Queen Mother Champion chase, when the well supported Kauto Stone managed to take a crashing fall.

Wishfull Thinking departed even more spectacularly at the next, leaving the race as a dual between Sizing Europe and Finians Rianbow.

Ultimately it was the younger horse who proved the stronger – but for a Championship race, the form doesn’t really look that great.

In the Coral Cup, Balgarry was well supported and was given an aggressive ride by Tom Scudamore. Coming down the hill it briefly looked as if it might pay off – but he was a spent force turning for home and could only finish seventh.

Spare a thought for Featherbed Lane, who broke a leg down the back straight. He was a horse who should have had a very bright future, so the incident was particularly sad...

In the Fred Winter hurdle, is was a bit galling to back a horse from the same stable as the winner – and with the stable jockey on board ! Aside from that, there was little to take out of the race, as Soliwery was pulled up around half way and Argocat never featured.

Finally, in the bumper, Horatio Hornblower raced prominently but weakened before the home straight; whereas Jezki made ground on the run to the home straight but never looked likely to reach the leaders…

An afternoon that started so well, ultimately went down hill.

On the plus side however, only a tiny loss was made on the bets placed as part of the ‘Special’ – and this was more than offset by the profit  from the ante-post wager on First Lieutenenant.

So, onto day 3 – and we are still very much in the game…  

Jewson Novice chase

Not surprisingly, the market for the race is headed by Peddlers Cross.

He is undoubtedly the class act – but there has to be some doubt over his fitness for tomorrow’s race. If he was A1, you have to think that he would have taken on Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle – but that didn’t happen.

He might be able to get away with not being 100% in this slightly lesser company and over a slightly further trip - and the form of the McCain yard is a big positive - but non-the-less, he is not an easy horse to back in the circumstances…

Sir Des Champs is a horse I have got a lot of time for. He won at the festival last season (beating Son of Flicka) and looks to have an attitude to die for. If he’s in with a shout jumping the last, I think he will take some beating – even by Peddlers Cross…

Cristal Bonus, Champion Court, Solix and For Non Stop are all very decent animals – so whatever wins this race is clearly going to have to be from the top drawer…

Despite this strength, I’m going to take a chance with a couple of outsiders…

Zaynar would have been a match for almost all of these in his prime, over hurdles. He has also shown in flashes this season, that he could be just as good over fences – however, he has also shown signs of temperament.

Last time out at Kempton, he unseated his rider when refusing to jump the first fence. He was sent off at 3/1 to beat Cristal Bonus that day and was attempting to give him 7lb. Tomorrow they meet at level weights…

Maybe as a result of his performance, Zaynar has been transferred to the stable of David Pipe. He has his first run for the yard tomorrow – and blinkers are applied…

Just 3 runs earlier, Zaynar had jumped for fun at Ascot and taken apart a decent field. If the change of stable can revive that level of form – and he is given a suitably aggressive ride - then I think he can go very well tomorrow…

Michael Flips is a much more reliable horse – though probably a little less talented…

That said, he has been steadily improving this season and has run particularly well in his last 2 races.

Last time out, he finished second to For Non Stop at Newbury. He meets that rival on exactly the same terms tomorrow – but was only beaten 2 lengths and is tomorrow available at 4 times the price.

A feature of both his last 2 races has been his clean fast jumping – and his ability to get into a rhythm.

If he can do the same tomorrow, it will stand him in very good stead – and I can see him outrunning his odds and hopefully claiming a place, at least…

Pertemps Final

It’s difficult not to start with Buena Vista when previewing the Pertemps Final, as the horse has won the last 2 runnings of the race.

What’s more, I think he has a very good chance of making it 3 on the bounce - and I’m not saying that for sentimental reasons…

He will be racing off a mark just 2lb higher than the one he won off last year – and he didn’t just win then, he dotted up. The official margin was 4 lengths – but it was a very comfortable 4 lengths and the rest of the field were strung out behind. If he had carried 2lb more last year, it would not have made a jot of difference to the result.

Of course there is a good reason why he is only running off a mark 2lb higher tomorrow-  and that is because he has run poorly on almost every start since.

I say almost, because last time out at Newbury, there were distinct signs of a retune to form. He was completely unfancied that day but led the field to the fourth last – before running out of gas. He travelled really well that day and it looked to me as if that run would put him spot on for tomorrow (which is the only day of the year that counts for him).

I fully expect him and his new apprentice jockey to run a huge race – and I really won’t be at all surprised if he does make it a hatrick of victories in the race.

If he’s not quite up to the job, then the one I’m hoping will take advantage, is Cape Tribulation.

He was also a big eye catcher last time out at Haydock. He finished fourth to Grand Vision that day, with Alfie Sherrin just behind him.

Coming to the second last, he really looked like he would be involved in the finish.However, he didn’t quite get home and faded to finish fourth. It is the same trip tomorrow - but the heavy Haydock ground will be replaced with quicker Cheltenham turf. In theory, this won’t be ideal for Cape Tribulation, who likes the ground soft – but I’m confident he will get away with it once.

He is very well handicapped on old form and has the big race jockey of the moment, Denis O’Regan, on board.

I can see him running a very big race… 

Ryanair Chase

An absolutely cracking race – and one I’d fancy having a real go at, if we weren’t already sitting pretty with our ante-post bet…

I would be happy taking on quite a few of the field, for one reason or another – which would leave me with a very manageable short-list…

Starting at the top of the market: despite the stable form and suitability of the trip, I wouldn’t want to be with Riverside Theatre…

He was very disappointing the last time he ran at Cheltenham in the 2010 Arkle – and there must also be a chance he will ‘bounce’ following his comeback victory at Ascot…

The ground is likely to be just too quick for both Rubi Light and Blazing Tempo – whilst you must have some serious concerns about Albertas Run and Kalahari King – both 11 year olds and both returning from significant absences…

Forpadytheplasterer and Little Josh are honest sorts – but they don’t look good enough and at 10 years old, are unlikely to be progressing. Which leaves just 6…

Poquelin hasn’t proved up to the task the last 2 seasons – and with Ruby deserting him this year, his case has hardly been enhanced.

Whilst Medermit appears comfortably held by Captain Chris on a couple of pieces of form – and doesn’t really look quite good enough any way…

I think the remaining 4 – Noble Prince, Somersby, Great Endeavor and Captain Chris - have all got a shout…

Captain Chris is the riskiest of the 4. His jumping last time out was positively alarming. However, if he can recapture his form of last season – or indeed first time out this season, he would take all the beating. At 16/1 he is worth a saver…

I can see no reason why Noble Prince won’t run a really big race – but equally it wouldn’t surprise me if the string of ‘2’s against his name got one longer after tomorrow…

I could give Great Endeavour a big shout - and he looks a fair bet at 11/1,

However, the horse I would be tipping – if we hadn’t already backed him, would be Somersby…

However you look at it, his form is absolutely rock solid - even his last time out defeat of Finians Rainbow was made to look positively guilt edged today.

Furthermore, his form is consistently from the top drawer. Barring accidents., he looks almost certain to run a huge race tomorrow and with a bit of luck I think he can provide us with some compensation for First Lieutenants defeat….

World Hurdle

Great horse that he is, Big Bucks is going to get beaten one day – and I have a sneaking suspicion that day might be tomorrow…

The reason I think this, is because tomorrow, Big Bucks takes on a higher calibre of opponent that he has for some significant time – possibly ever…

Specifically, I am referring to Oscar Whiskey and Thousand Stars, horses who were good enough to be placed in last seasons Champion hurdle.

If there is no pace in tomorrow’s race, I think that one – or possible both of them – will have too much speed for Big Bucks.

Consequently, how the race will be run, becomes very important. I doubt it will be run at a crawl – but the only horse I can see who will want to make the running is Dynaste.

Dynaste has faced Big Bucks on his last 2 outings and Tom Scudamore made the mistake of going far too fast on the first of those and played right into Big Bucks hands.

Therefore, I think he will make a much slower pace tomorrow – and hope to kick going down the hill.

In that scenario, it is the speed horses that will be best suited – most specifically, Oscar Whiskey and Thousand Stars – but also possibly Voler la Vadette.

I really don’t see very much between the first 2 named: they finished close together in last seasons Champion – and have consistently run to a similar level of form.

However, Thousand Stars is available at around twice the price of Oscar Whiskey – and that is despite the fact he is proven over 3 miles and the highest level and Oscar Whiskey isn’t…

I think Voler La Vadette is also worth a small play. She is a really classy mare – with plenty of pace and she too will be well suited if the race develops into a sprint.

I was happy enough with the 14/1 on offer about her over the weekend – 25/1 tonight just looks insulting !

However, despite this, Thousand Stars is the solid play. I think he has the class to beat Big Bucks – but if the race does become a stamina test, then I think he is stronger on that front than Oscar Whiskey.

The other runners set are all of a decent standard – but they are the kind of horses that Big Bucks has been toying with for the past 3 seasons. Tomorrow he will have a different kind of battle on his hands and if comes through this one unscathed, he will deserve all the accolades that will doubtless flow his way…

Byrne Group Plate

There are a number of potentially well handicapped horses in this race…

Salut Flo, Crack Away Jack and Divers, are the 3 most obvious and there has to be a chance that one of the 3 will just waltz away with the race.

However, all 3 have significant jumping frailties and I therefore couldn’t entertain tipping any of them.

I think Salut Flo is potentially the best handicapped of the 3 – but he showed the Cheltenham fences no respect when he ran here in December and subsequently paid the price. Unless he has been taught to jump differently in the meantime I struggle to see how the outcome won’t be the same tomorrow…

A far more solid option than any of the 3, is Hectors Choice.

He has been a revelation this season, running good race after good race – yet despite this, he has only risen just over a stone in the handicap. He probably ran his best race of all last time out, when he looked likely to collect the Racing Plus chase until lack of stamina caught him out over that 3 mile trip.

There is no shame in losing to Nacarat at Kempton – yet bizarrely he has been dropped a pound for that run. More importantly however, he is cut back 3 furlongs in distance tomorrow and he looks sure to run a really big race.

I acknowledge that even if he runs to his best, he might find a better handicap rival on the day – but at 4/1 for him to be in the first 4, I think he represent a really solid each way bet.

One of his rivals who could prove to be very well handicapped, is Gilbarry. He has shown very little this season – but at the end of last season, looked to be a horse going places…

It is a bit of an act of faith, but the warmer weather and quicker ground – plus a handicap mark that has dropped 11lb since the start of the season, could see him spring back to form. At 50/1, I think he is worth a tiny play just in case…

Similarly, the case for Radetsky March is not that obvious. True he did win a handicap hurdle off a mark just 2lb lower than he races off tomorrow, on his penultimate outing, but  he has subsequently disappointed and it is a long time since he showed any worthwhile form over fences.

However, I do think he remains well weighted in that discipline and the fact he likes to race prominently should see him avoiding trouble. When he gets unto a rhythm up front, he can prove difficult to pass – and hopefully that is exactly what will happen tomorrow.

Kim Muir Chase

I was quite keen on the chances of Benbane Head in today’s National Hunt chase, but connections decided to side step that event for a shot at the Kim Muir.

Banbane Head is only a novice and has in fact only won one chase in his life – but he has already shown a reasonable level of form and there is every reason for believing he can build on that tomorrow.

Back in November, he ran third in the Badger Ales trophy at Wincanton, behind The Minack. The Minack was running off a mark of 141 that day – but is now rated 159, which shows the size of the task for Benbane Head that day. The fact he was only beaten 9 lengths, is to his credit.

Some fair horses finished well behind that day, including Richards Sundance, Aldertune and – Dovers Hill. Despite that, Benbane Head gets to run off a mark 1lb lower tomorrow…

Benbane Head has only run 3 times since then and has been well beaten on each occasion. However, the first of those runs was a 5 runner affair, where the form is probably not that reliable and in the second of them the ground had turned soft, which does not suit Benbane Head at all…

He was put away after that run and only reappeared in the middle of February, when he ran over hurdles at Wincanton. I think it is safe to assume that race was simply a prep for tomorrow…

In summary, I think Benbane Head has a lot going for him. He should be well suited by the trip and the ground and appears to have been prepared specifically for the festival. He has scope for improvement but has also demonstrated himself capable of running well in a similar contest.

The icing on the cake is the booking of Matt O’Connor for the ride. He was a crack apprentice with Colm Murphy in Ireland until he had a near life ending fall a couple of seasons back. He has clearly found it difficult since that day and has switched status to become an amateur. He will be far more competent than the majority of the jockeys riding in tomorrow s race.

I was a big fan of his when he was riding for Murphy – and it would give me enormous pleasure to see him ride a winner at the festival. After everything he has been through over the past few years, I don’t think any one would begrudge him a day in the limelight…

Summary of bets

1:30 Jewson Novice Chase

Michael Flips 0.5pt EW 25/1

Zaynar 0.5pt win 25/1

2:05 Pertemps Final

Buena Vista 1pt win 11/1

Cape Tribulation 0.5pt EW 20/1 

2:40 Ryanair Chase

Somersby 1pt EW 20/1 (ante-post)

Captain Chris 0.5pt win 16/1

3:20 World Hurdle

Thousand Stars 1pt win 9/1 

Voler La Vedette 0.5pt EW 14/1

without Big Bucks

Thousand Stars 1pt win 9/2 

4:00 Byrne Group Plate

Hectors Choice 0.5pt EW 16/1

Vino Griego 0.5pt EW 33/1 (NR - stake refunded)

Gilbarry 0.25pt win 50/1

Radetsky March 0.25pt win 40/1

4:40 Kim Muir Chase

Baile Anrai 1pt win 12/1 (NR - stake refunded)

Benbane Head 0.75pt EW 33/1

12 points staked in total

Cheltenham Day 2

I did say that I wouldn’t do my normal ‘race reviews’ for the Cheltenham festival – after all, there are only so many hours in the day ! But I simply can’t let Day 1 pass without making a few comments…

What a tremendous days racing it was - it really doesn’t take very long for me to remember why the Cheltenham festival is the centre of my entire year !

From a financial perspective, I feared that it might all go a bit pear-shaped, after Cinder and Ashes won the opener…

He was the first horse I found – but I dismissed him, due in part to the ‘incident’ with Peddlers Cross. A costly lesson…

Trifoloium ran an honourable race – and may well have prevailed on softer ground. Though that said, the winner won well – despite ploughing through the last.

In the Arkle, Sprinter Sacre lived up to all the hype. The race didn’t pan out exactly as I expected, because Ruby chose to ride Al Ferof more aggressively (an understandable move, if he wanted to beat Sprinter Sacre) - but it was all to no avail. Al Ferof made a costly mistake at the top of the hill and Sprinter Sacre cantered into the lead. Despite the best efforts of both Cue Card and Menorah, the winner was simply different class and the post race quote of 2/1 about him winning next season’s Queen Mother Champion chase, almost looks generous.

There was little to cheer in the Festival handicap chase, as neither Zarrafakt nor Baile Anrai ever figured. Instead it was left to the peerless Tom Segal (Pricewise) to find another big priced winner.

Then came the Champion hurdle – and my fears concerning the day looked to have been confirmed.

I intended to have 0.5pt on Rock on Ruby last night at the 12/1 with Ladbrokes but they shortened the price just as I was about to issue – so I decided not to bother. Needless to say, Rock on Ruby powered up the hill to record a famous victory...

However, once again, the Philip Hobbs/Richard Johnson combination saved the day for me. They did it a few times during my 4 months tipping – and they worked the oracle again today in the cross country chase.

It struck me from the start of the race, that Johnson looked determined to avenge Decembers defeat over the same course – and Balthazar King was clearly full of himself, jumping from fence to fence.

Approaching the second last, it did look like A New Story was going to over-haul him – but as I said on the blog a few times, whilst he may not be the most technically gifted jockey, I would not swap Richard Johnson for anyone, if it comes down to a battle from the last fence to the line. Once again, he didn’t let me down, forcing Balthazar King’s head back up in the shadows of the post.

At that point, the day seemed to turn and I had great hopes for both Terre Du Vent and Vino Griego.

However, Terre Du Vent made a costly error 5 hurdles form home and couldn’t recover her position. I doubt she would have troubled Quevega regardless as she looked truly imperious, taking her fourth mares title.

In the finale, Vino Griego ran well – as I expected him to. However, he was just too free and despite leading over the second last, he had nothing to offer from that point. He needs to be ridden with more restraint – but I’m not sure that Jamie Moore is the man to do that and I doubt the ride will go to anyone else…

Again, it is highly unlikely that he would have beaten the winner whatever, as Hunt Ball was again hugely impressive in victory. He really could make up into a Gold Cup contender next season. Not bad for a horse that started this season rate 69 !!

Anyway, after that ‘brief’ recap of today, on to tomorrow…!

National Hunt Chase 

Day 2 of the Festival kicks off with the National Hunt 4 mile chase…

In days gone by, this was the most important race at the meeting – but now it is seen more as a curiosity, sending amateur riders over the furthest distance of any festival race.

My main fancy for the race, is Teaforthree.

He is the highest rated horse in the race and can boast some pretty decent form this season. The trip should hold no fears for him and he should be well suited by the prevailing ground conditions. The booking of J T McNamara is also seen as a positive, as he is a previous winner of the race (he gave Rith Dubh a brilliant ride to get up close home in 2002).

Treaforthree likes to race prominently - but that tends to be an advantage in races such as this, as it means you steer clear of any trouble.

There are 2 other in the race, that catch my eye at longer odds…

The first is Four Commanders, who is a full brother to former Gold Cup winner, Kicking King.

He is unlikely to ever reach the lofty heights his sibling managed, but he has already shown himself to be a fair performer. There is a slight question mark about him getting the trip – but I would expect him to benefit greatly from running on the quicker spring ground (Kicking King has a preference for good ground).

Again ,the jockey booking (which is important in amateur races) can be seen as a positive, with Nina Carberry taking the ride.

Finally, I feel obliged to have a small play on the Dermot Weld trained Daffern Seal.

There is quite a bit of guess work involved with his one, as he has only run 4 times in his life (only twice over fences); has never run further than 2m6f – and hasn’t run for 6 months !

However, he was very impressive on his chasing debut – and represents top class connections who simply wouldn’t be coming over for just a day out.

Robbie McNamara (cousin of JT – and brother of Andrew) is just about the best amateur around in my opinion – and if anyone can get a tune out of Daffern Seal, he will.

In a very trappy race, fingers crossed one of the 3 manages to come good.  

Neptune Novice Hurdle

This looks even stronger than today’s Supreme novice hurdle !

Simonsig, Monksland and Sous Les Cieux could all be seriously smart animals – but equally, they have all been priced up short enough, considering the strength of the race.

Batonnier was very impressive in taking the trial for this race, held at the January Cheltenham meeting. He cruised through that race and could be called the winner some way from home.

He is clearly progressing quickly and the fact he has good course and distance form to his name, is a further positive. His credentials look rock solid and I will be surprised if he does not go close.

Benefficient actually beat Sous Le Cieux last time out. His odds of 50/1 that day, suggest the win was something of a fluke – and it is true that he had the run of the race. However, Sous Le Cieux had time to get to him that day, if he had been good enough – and Benefficient appeared to improve for racing on quicker ground.

The ground will be on the quick side again tomorrow, so it is difficult to justify the huge disparity in odds.

Benefficient isn’t anywhere near as solid as Batonnier – he is likely to either win or finish nowhere. However at the odds on offer, I think he is worth a small play to demonstrate that his last time out victory wasn’t a fluke.

Finally, I want to have a tiny play on The Tracey Shuffle...

He finished mid-field in last seasons Champion bumper and has only run twice over hurdles this season, finishing second at Lingfield before hacking up at Ayr.

I suspect he will go from the front and might be able to get a few of the other runners at it.

I would have preferred Tom Scudamore to be on board (the jockeys hadn’t been declared when I issued the tip) – as the jockey booking suggests he is not the stable first string.
Still, the horse doesn’t know that – and hopefully he will run a fair race regardless… 

RSA Chase

My two longest standing ante-post bets for the festival, were Grands Crus in the Gold Cup (at 33/1, backed in November) and Peddlers Cross for the Arkle…

As it turns out, neither animal will run in the race for which I backed it – yet despite potentially losing much more by Grands Curs taking up the RSA option, I don’t feel nearly as bad about it, as I did about Peddlers not running in the Arkle !

I’ll be surprised if Grands Crus doesn’t win the RSA chase tomorrow. Being in mind our ante-post position on First Lieutenant, I did actually toy with putting him up as a saver, as the generally available 6/4.

On quick ground, over the 3 mile trip, I think he will take some beating…

That said, I wouldn’t have been anywhere near as confident about his chances, if Mr Moonshine were not running in the race. He is the only pace angle I can see – and Grands Crus will definitely need a strong gallop if he is to win.

A lack of pace is always a potential issue with a small field – and tomorrows field is much smaller than expected.

Of course, that is good news for our ante post bet, First Lieutenant, who looks sure to run a big race on his favoured quick ground.

In fact, if Grands Crus is beaten, I think First Lieutenant is the horse most likely to hand out the defeat, so I am very comfortable with our position on the race.

Of the others, I’m not a big fan of Bobs Worth (over fences) or Join Together, whilst I’ll be surprised if the Irish horses prove good enough.

In fact the other horse I can see outrunning his odds, is the aforementioned Mr Moonshine.

As I said, he is likely to get an uncontested lead – and the conditions of the race should suit him fine. On official ratings, he has not got much to find with most of the field and I can certainly see him outrunning his current odds of 80/1.

There will be worse each-way shouts, that's for sure…

Queen Mother Champion Chase

I’m a big fan of Sizing Europe, but seeing him priced up as an odds on shot for the Queen Mother Champion chase, just seems wrong.

He’s a really good horse – but lets be honest, he’s no Master Minded, or Moscow Flyer or Viking Flagship – and certainly no Pearlyman ! (my favourite racehorse of all time :D ).

That said, when I look at the opposition, I can understand why he is that price – I don’t think he’s frightened them away, it is just that there is just a dearth of top class 2 miles chasers at the moment.

Of course, that is not Sizing Europe’s fault – and the situation will doubtless change next season, when Sprinter Sacre has graduated form the novice ranks.

For tomorrow though, I can’t help but feel that whilst Sizing Europe looks the best horse in the field, in absolute terms, he doesn’t set an impossibly high standard…

That said, looking through the field, I can only see 2 horses who have the potential to beat him: Finians Rainbow and Kauto Stone.

The chances of Finians Rainbow are the more obvious. He was a decent novice last season, finishing second in the Arkle before winning well at Aintree.

He has continued his progression this season, wining at Kempton after making a shocking mistake 4 out – and then finishing runner up to Somersby in the Victor Chandler chase at Ascot.

However, it is that second run which I feel demonstrates his limitations. He was beaten by Somersby that day and whilst he is a good horse – he is no crack 2 miler.

If he is to win tomorrow, Finians Rainbow will need to have improved a good deal from the Ascot run.

Kauto Stone is a half brother to Kauto Star and was a grade 1 winner in his native France as a 4 year old.

He made his debut for Paul Nicholls at Down Royal last November and was mightily impressive in victory.

Next time out, he tackled Sizing Europe at Sandown in the Tingle Creek chase. That was a heck of an ask for a relative novice and he ran really well, keeping tabs on the reigning champion until his jumping started to let him down over the final few obstacles.

Despite this, he was only beaten 8 lengths on the day – a gap which I can see being closed tomorrow…

I was actually tempted to tip Kauto Stone ante-post for this race based on that performance but it looked likely that connections would opt for the Ryanair chase over an extra half mile. However Kauto Stone disappointed in his prep race for that target and instead finds himself back in the Queen Mother field…

Hopefully, that will turn out to be a blessing in disguise. Despite running poorly at Ascot, Kauto Stone showed real pace and I don’t see the drop back in trip as an issue.

He does have 8 lengths to make up on Sizing Europe but he is only 6 years old and so there is still likely to be improvement in him.

If anyone can eak that improvement out, it is Paul Nicholls – and with the rest of the opposition looking limited, I am really optimistic that Kauto Stone will be able to run in to a place tomorrow – and who knows, with a bit of luck, he might even be able to get the better of the current champion.

Coral Cup

When the overnight declarations for the Coral cup were released this morning, I was really surprised to see that Balgarry had made it into the field.

He was way down the list when I looked over the weekend and expected him to be running in the Martin Pipe conditionals race on Friday instead.

However this is the more valuable race – and I, like connections, feel he has an excellent chance of success in this race.

In truth, his chances aren’t that easy to assess, as he has only run once in this country.

That run came at Newbury at the beginning of this month, when he took apart a competitive field, recording an easy victory over Nampour. The merit of that performance was highlighted on Saturday, when Nampour himself ran an excellent race to finished runner up in the Imperial Cup.

Balgarry gets into tomorrows race off his old mark of 129 – plus a 5lb penalty. Following the Newbury victory, the official handicapper raised him to a mark of 140 – so he is officially 6lb well in tomorrow.

However, the real thing about Balgarry, is his potential. He won by 3 and a half lengths at Newbury – but at one point it looked as if it might be double that margin. A rating of 140 might significantly under-estimate his ability.

The big concern with him however, is whether he will ‘bounce’ following his Newbury effort. That was his first run for 18 months, so there is a possibility that he will need longer than the 2 weeks he has had, to get over it.

However, if that isn’t the case, then I can see him going very close tomorrow…
The other one I want on side for tomorrow’s race, is Featherbed Lane.

He is a much more exposed horse - but has been improving throughout the season.

He transferred into the care of Philip Hobbs at the start of this season and on his first outing for his new trainer, won well at Ascot, off a mark of 120. He then defeated Reindeer Dippin in the mud at Aintree, before running Swincombe Flame very close at Kempton.

His final outing was in a conditions race at Haydock and although he was ultimately well beaten behind Restless Harry, it looked to me as if it was the 3 mile trip that was his undoing that day.

He is dropped back to 2m5f tomorrow which should suit him better and although he has a mark of 150 to defy, Philip Hobbs has wisely enlisted the services of 7lb claimer James Best, to reduce his burden.

It will be a tough ask – but I think the horse is still progressing and I expect him to run very well.

Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle

Of all the races run during the 4 days of the Cheltenham festival, this is the one that appeals least to me…

I’m not a big fan of juvenile hurdles – especially handicap hurdles – but the winner will be payed out in the same way as all the other races, so I have diligently gone through the runners.

Initially I was looking for horses who were relatively unexposed. The theory being that you would ideally want to find a horse that hadn’t fully shown it’s hand to the handicapper (and therefore had scope for improvement).

I think Argocat is such a horse. He was a fair performer on the flat and has only run 3 times over hurdles, On the second of those runs, he finished behind Darroun and Shadow Catcher - both of whom are prominent in the betting for Fridays Triumph Hurdle.

On his final outing, he was a comfortable winner of a Thurles maiden hurdle. The suggestion is that he is improving – whilst still being unexposed.

I am happy to keep him onside, however, whilst I was looking though the field it struck me that there were a number of runners who had acquired their ratings whilst running in France for other stables.

There is a distinct possibility that these animals will improve for the switch to UK stables and therefore show themselves to be well handicapped.

The favourite, Vendor, is an example of such an animal – but so too is Soliwery.

He has also only run 3 times in his life: twice in his native France and once in the UK.

He showed distinct promise on that UK debut at Sandown and if he can build on that, I think he should run well tomorrow.

All this said, the race remains one to be cautious about and therefore stakes have been kept to a minimum…

Champion Bumper

Another race where it is very difficult to get a handle on things – and one where again, stakes should be kept low…

That said, I was really taken by the performance of Horatio Hornblower when he made he debut at Newbury in the middle of February.

Historically, that race has always been a hot contest (I remember watching Mosigneur run in it before wining the Cheltenham Bumper) and Horatio Hornblower was a relatively unconsidered 25/1 shot.

However, he ran a race full of promise – and would probably have won, if he had not shown inexperience in the final few furlongs.

With that run under his belt – and receiving the valuable 4 year old allowance – I think he can go very well tomorrow.

I am taking another 4 year old as a saver.

He is the Jessica Harrington trained Jezki. He has run a couple of times in Ireland and won on both occasions, showing a good attitude and significant ability.

There is a fair bit of guess work involved, trying to figure out which form lines are the strongest, but in a race where there are no obvious standouts, he looks decent value at 14/1.

Summary of Bets

1:30 National Hunt Chase

Teaforthree 1pt win 8/1 

Benbane Head 0.5pt win 25/1 (NR - stake refunded)

Daffern Seal 0.5pt win 25/1

Four Commanders 0.5pt win 14/1

2:05 Neptune Novice Hurdle

Benefficient 0.5pt win 20/1 Generally

The Tracey Shuffle 0.25pt EW 66/1 L,C (50/1 Generally)

Batonnier 0.5pt win 9/1 BS,PP

Mount Benbulben 0.5pt EW 25/1 T,BS,BF,SJ (NR - stake refunded)

2:40 RSA Chase

First Lieutenant 1pt EW 20/1 (ante-post)

3:20 Queen Mother Champion Chase

Kauto Stone 0.75pt EW 18/1 SJ (16/1 Generally)

4:00 Coral Cup

Balgarry 1pt win 12/1

Featherbed Lane 0.75pt win 16/1

Batonnier 0.75pt win 14/1 (NR - stake refunded)

4:40 Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle

Argocat 0.5pt win 20/1

Soliwery 0.5pt win 25/1

5:15 Champion Bumper

Horatio Hornblower 1pt win 16/1

Jezki 0.5pt win 14/1

11.75 points staked in total

Cheltenham Day 1

The wait is over – the week that the remainder of the year revolves around has finally arrived – the Cheltenham festival is here !!

And what a week it promises to be…

In a way, this moment in time is as good as it gets – pure anticipation of what lies ahead. I’m sure there will be countless ups and down – highs and lows – but right now, in the calm before the storm, everything still has the potential to go perfectly !!

That won’t actually happen of course – but hopefully we will have enough ups to offset the inevitable downs – and if luck happens to smile on us, then who knows what might occur !

As you will have seen, I’ve been quite liberal with my Cheltenham tipping. However, each tip was as carefully thought out as any I have issued in the preceding 4 months.

Cheltenham is unique is so much as it is always in your mind, so studying the form for Cheltenham doesn’t actually take anywhere near as long as it does ordinarily.

It’s simply a question of weighing up the variables and checking out the odds on offer.

Let’s hope that I’ve got sufficient calls right to make this a profitable – as well as enjoyable – week !!

Supreme Novice‘s Hurdle

19 runners and at least a dozen can be given a chance…

Worse still it is very difficult to draw comparisons between the various different form lines, so an element of guess work is required – with the available odds and hence that all important ‘value’, a big factor in selections…

My main fancy for the race is the horse that Gigginstown have evidently nominated as their number 1: Trifoloium…

He’s an ex-French horse who took a few runs before he finally broke his duck over hurdles in Ireland. That victory coincided with the fitting of cheek-pieces – and he has not looked back since…

He won his second hurdle race at Limerick on St Stephens day (Boxing day) – but it was his next outing over hurdles that really drew him to my attention.

In that race, he cruised up along side the now 158 rated So Young, approaching the second last, before that more experienced rival quickened away from him.

On his final outing, Trifolium was seriously impressive, pulling right away from Simeon, who re-opposes him tomorrow.

The big unknown with Trifolium is the ground. All his form is on soft or heavy ground, so it remains to be seen how he will handle a quicker surface. However, if he does cope with it, I think he will take all the beating.

In addition to Trifolium, I am proposing a couple of small each way bets on two other Irish trained horses…

Dylan Ross has been mixing it with the very best in Ireland – and generally coming second ! However, he has a very high cruising speed and I think that the quicker ground and bigger field could make the difference for him.

Expect to see Paul Carberry sat quietly out the back, and then to start picking off his rivals one by one.

Whether he will be good enough to pick them all of, is another matter – and even if he is, I’m not sure he is mentally tough enough to stay there ! But at around 8/1 to be placed, I think he is worth a small play…

In a similar vein, Distant Memories was not far off the best of this field, on the flat. He also made a successful transition to hurdles before finishing behind Dylan Ross and Midnight Game, at Naas.

On that form he can’t beat either of them tomorrow, however he did make a bad mistake at the second last that day – and he will be much better suited by the quicker ground that he will encounter tomorrow.

I struggle to split the home contingent: Cinders and Ashes should run well – I’m just a little concerned about his getting up the hill. Colour Squadron is another one that I could see running well – but his wayward tendencies at the end of his races would have to be a worry.

At the end of the day, I’m happy to stick with the 3 at decent prices and hope that the Irish get the meeting off to a cracking start !!

Arkle Chase

You maybe won’t be too surprised to hear that I’ve lost my appetite for this race a little…

I’ve written enough about this on the blog, so I won’t write much more on it here – but suffice to say, the Arkle without Peddlers Cross, won’t be the same race as an Arkle with Peddlers Cross in the field…

As I’ve said before, this race simply boils down to whether Sprinter Sacre is as good as he is being made out to be. If he is, he will win – but I some how doubt he will be…

That is not to say that he won’t win – he may very well do so – just that suggesting he is a better horse than Moscow Flyer, seems like a rash thing for Barry Geraghty to have done. In a way, I hope he is right – racing needs it’s superstars and if Sprinter Sacre is that good, he will be a superstar, make no mistake about that.

However plenty of potential superstars are proclaimed – but few actually reach the those lofty heights…

I actually think that it is quite easy to predict how the race should unfold: Cue Card is likely to make the running (Joe Tizzard has said he will – and I think it is his best chance of success). Sprinter Sacre will sit in just behind him – probably taking a strong hold.

Menorah will make too many mistakes – and the Irish horses won’t be good enough.

Geraghty will ask Sprinter Sacre for an effort round the home turn – and he will challenge Cue Card. The acid question is: what happens next…?

If Sprinter Sacre is as good as they say, he will lengthen away – that’s what Moscow Flyer would have done. However I suspect it might turn into a bit of a scrap.

Cue Card will fight back; Al Ferof will be finishing fast – and Sprinter Sacre will have to hold on. He may be good enough to do that – but then again he may not…

Anyway, that’s my prophecy on how it will unfold – and in that scenario, I would be happy to be on Al Ferof at 5/1 – in the knowledge that if Sprinter Sacre did hold on, I would get my money back !

Fortunately, that is the bet I have as I followed the ante-post advice on the blog !
Maybe I shouldn’t be down about the race after all ;)

Festival Handicap Chase

I’m happy enough to take on the market leaders in this particular race…

Whilst I rate Quantitativeeasing as a horse, he will be some animal if he can successfully carry 11st12lb to victory. That said, I would still take him over Hold on Julio, he ran in snatches and made mistakes, when winning at Sandown. He will need to improve if he is to take this contest. The Package is potentially the most interesting of the 3 market leaders – but only David Pipe and his team really know if his is in the form required to win a race such has this after an absence from the track of 18 months (though the market will doubtless be very informative, just before the off)…

Instead, I am going with 2 progressive horses: one is still a novice and whilst the other is a little more experienced, this will only be his sixth outing over fences…

The first is Baile Anrai, who was a decent novice hurdler last seen and actually finished a very creditable second to Fingal Bay in the Persian War novice hurdle at Chepstow in October. That was a tremendous performance, as he was only beaten 6 lengths by the winner, who would have started hot favourite for the Neptune Investment hurdle, had he not been ruled out through injury.

Despite that promise, Baile Anrai’s attention was then switched to fencing – where he has been gradually progressive.

The big concern is his jumping. He has fallen twice in his four outings – and they have been in smaller fields. However, it simply can’t be ignored that he is potentially thrown in at the weights – he could literally be over a stone better than his handicap mark.

Therefore, if he does jump round without blemish, he will take the world of beating and 16/1 seems a very fair price about that possibility.

The other selection is Zarrafakt…

It has taken his connections a little while to work out that the key to him is long gaps between his races. However, they have figured it out now and it is almost 8 weeks since he last ran…

That was at Wincanton,. When he simply toyed with Aldertune and Richards Sundance - both of whom ran very well at Sandown on Saturday.

Zarrafakt was raised 12lb for that win – but it is difficult to know just how much he had in hand. It’s unlikely to be a stone – but then his jumping comes with less risks !

Again, at a price of 16/1, he seems worth a risk.

Mossley and Pentiffic were the other 2 that caught my eye, but the jumping of both would be a concern.

On balance, I’m happy to be represented by Baile Anrai and Zarrafakt.

Champion Hurdle

Only 10 runners go to post for the prime hurdle race of the season – and it will be a shock if the winner doesn’t come from the first 5 in the betting.

Hurricane Fly is probably the most talented horse in the race – an assertion supported by the fact he is unbeaten in his last 7 outings, including in last years Champion. However, he is also quite fragile. That said, assuming he is fit and well – and nothing untoward happens during the race, he will take all the beating…

Zarkandar is all about potential: he is unbeaten over hurdles, with last seasons Triumph hurdle included in his list of victories. But that also signifies his potential Achilles heal. His is only 5 years old and horses of that age have a very poor record in the Champion hurdle. In fact, only one has won in the past 25 years – and that was in freakish circumstances. Many have tried – but generally, they lack the physical maturity to compete with their elders, off level weights.

Of course, that is not to say a 5 year old can’t win: if he is of exceptional ability (and Zarkandar might well be) or if the opposition is not up to scratch. However, Hurricane Fly is very much up to scratch – so it is difficult to see Zarkandar taking his measure.
Next year might be a different story of course...

Oscars Well threatened to be a very good horse this season, but hasn’t really delivered. He ran really well in last seasons Neptune novice hurdle, cruising into the lead round the home turn, before fluffing the last. There is always a chance that the return to Cheltenham and quicker ground will see him put in a better performance, but he’s not for me.

Rock on Ruby is a different matter. He finished 6 lengths ahead of Oscars Well at last year’s festival – and has continued his progression this season. He has only run over hurdles 6 times in his life, so there could still be improvement in him. At 12/1 or bigger, he would be worth a small a saver.

However, for the main bet, I have gone for Binolcular…

He is a bit of an enigma – but there can be little doubt that when on song, he too is a prodigious talent.

He was on song on this day 2 years ago, when he bounded up the hill for a comfortable victory in the 2010 champion. However, he has not been on song many times since that day...

That said, his last outing at Wincanton did seem to suggest that maybe he was still up to the task. He toyed with Celestial Halo that day – and whilst that one may not be Champion hurdle class, he still sets a reasonable standard.

The key aspect of that apparent return to form however, was that it was Binocular’s first run following a breathing operation. If an inability to breath properly is what has been causing Binocular to under-perform, then sorting it out could see him back to his brilliant best. If that is the case, then he and Hurricane Fly could end up having one hell of a battle.

In short, unless Rock on Ruby has taken another big stride forward, the only horse I see capable of beating a top form Hurricane Fly, is Binocular. In the hope that the breathing operation has returned him to his peak, I think he is worth a small play to topple the Fly and regain the hurdling crown

Cross Country Chase

When I first sat down and looked properly at the declarations for day 1, Balathazar King was my strongest selection…

The seasoned amongst you, will recall that we were on him when he ran in the cross country race at the December Cheltenham meeting.

That race descended into farce, with all but 3 of the runners taking the wrong course.

Balthazar King was one of the disqualified runners – and although it is impossible to say where he would have finished that day, he was still very much in with a shout, when his race came to an abrupt end.

Balthazar King apparently broke his cheek bone in the mellay and so has been out of action since.

Bizarrely this could prove to be a blessing in disguise though, as he invariably runs his best races when fresh. The other big thing in his favour, it that all of his best form is on quick ground. The ground on the cross country course will be significantly quicker than on the other courses, as it is not possible to artificially water it.

The case for Balthazar King is made stronger by the fact that there are chinks in the armour of at least a couple of his main rivals:

Scotsirish is a class act – but he prefers cut in the ground and isn’t sure to stay the marathon trip; whilst Garde Champetre is now 13 years old and unlikely to be the force he once was.

Uncle Junior and Sizing Australia aren’t as easily dismissed – but they are plenty short enough in the betting.

In fact the other one of interest is Maljimar. He has run well at the festival in the past – including in this race last season. He was sent off favourite that day and was cruising entering the home straight before emptying up the hill.

I suspect it might be the same story this season – but he has clearly been aimed at this race by connections, who must think he can get home.

At the prices, he is worth a small saver – but Balthazar King is the main bet.

David Nicholson Mares Hurdle

Although no horse is ever unbeatable – particularly at the Cheltenham festival – Quevega must get as close to a ‘banker’ as it is possible to get…

True she hasn’t run for almost a year – but it was the same story last year and she absolutely bolted up.

That was her third win on the bounce in this race – and it is difficult to imagine her not recording a fourth tomorrow, all things being equal.

That said, I feel I have found a tremendous bet to at least give her a race – and who knows, maybe even bustle her up a little ;)

Terre Du Vent had clearly crept under the radar of the odds compilers. I was a bit surprised when I saw her at 33/1 over the weekend – but literally staggered to see her at 50/1 on the opening show today…

I guess if you just look at her form figures, then 50/1 is not too surprising – but to say that a single ‘F’ doesn’t really tell the story, is a bit of an understatement…

Terre Du Vent was a high class staying mare on the flat, in her native France. There she won a couple of listed races – and finished just a few lengths off the winner in a group 2 and a group 1 contest, only last year.

She has been sent over to the UK and put into the care of Tom George, presumably with this race as her main objective. George already trains a number of horses for her owner, including the top class Nacarat and our old friend, Module.

Terre Du Vent made her hurdling debut in the Dovecot novice hurdle at Kempton on Racing Plus chase day in February.

She was well backed that day, despite taking on, amongst others, Grumeti, who was vying for Triumph hurdle favouritism.

Coming round the home turn, she looked like she was going to give him a good run for his money – and traded at just above 2 on BF, before taking a crashing fall at the second last.

However, what that race did show was that Terre Du Vent had an aptitude for hurdling and this coupled with her proven ability, should make her a potent hurdling force.

Whether she is potent enough to cope with Quevega, is of course a completely different matter – but, with improvement from the Kempton run pretty much assured, she could well be capable of coping with the remainder of her rivals – the best of whom are 140ish rated performers.

If Quevega wasn’t in the race, she would almost be a maximum bet – and the 14/1 on offer by Stan James without the favourite looks a great bet.

However, I’ll stick with the EW option – at 33/1, it’s still over 8/1 a place – and there is always the possibility that Quevega may not perform to the expected level ;)

Centenary Novice Handicap chase

The final race of the day – and the third great bet (in case you’ve not been paying attention, Balthazar King and Terre Du Vent are the other 2 !!).

However, a little like Terre Du Vent, I fear that it might not be quite good enough to be a winning one.

This time however, the reason has nothing to do with the opposition – and everything to do with the horse himself !

Vino Griego is a massive talent – and actually finished fourth in this very race last year (off a pound higher mark). Furthermore, he looked sure to bolt up that day, as he took up the running on the home turn, going very strongly.

However, Vino Griego is a law unto himself. He didn’t really finish his race that day – and a combination of that and sloppy jumping, invariably manage to catch him out.

However, the ability is there – and one of these days, everything will fall into place.

I really hope that day will be tomorrow – and it certainly isn’t beyond the realms of possibility, provided Jamie Moore can ride him with sufficient confidence and strength.

As you may have gathered from the way I have staked the bet, I have a horrible feeling that he will almost get it right.

I can see him being a few lengths clear jumping the last – and then just fading up the hill. I hope I’m wrong – but we are well placed financially if I am right.

If he does get nailed in the shadows of the post, then I think the horse most likely to get to him is Carrickboy – and not just because he is trained by Venetia Williams !!

He won really well at Hereford last week and is just the type of horse that Venetia is able to run up a sequence with. Even with a 5lb penalty for that success, he is not badly treated and should find conditions ideal.

I’ll be more than happy if he doesn’t quite manage to reel in Vino Griego – but I think he is worth a saver, just in case !!

 

Summary of bets for Day 1

1:30 Supreme Novice hurdle

Trifolium 0.5pt win 14/1

Dylan Ross 0.25pt EW 33/1

Distant Memories 0.25pt EW 50/1

2:05 Arkle Chase

Peddlers Cross 2pt win 6/1 (ante-post)

Al Ferof 1pt win 5/1 (ante-post)

2:40 Festival Handicap Chase

Baile Anrai 1pt win 16/1

Zarrafakt 1pt win 16/1

3:20 Champion Hurdle

Binocular 1pt win 5/1

4:00 Cross Country Chase

Balthazar King 1.5pt win 14/1

Maljimar  0.5pt win12/1

4:40 David Nicholson Mares Hurdle

Terre Du Vent 0.5pt EW 33/1 & 0.25pt EW 50/1

5:15 Centenary Novice chase

Vino Griego 0.75pt EW 25/1 & 0.5pt place 6/1

Carrickboy 0.5pt win 16/1

13.5 points staked in total

10th March - Race reviews

I’ve no idea what happened with Dovers Hill this afternoon – he’d obviously not read the job description for TVB tips…

That clearly states that when a TVB tip is backed like crazy, it has a responsibility to finish an honourable second. During this ‘project’ I have tipped 15 horses which have at least halved in price – and no less than 6 of them have finished runner up – with just the 1 winning (Mostly Bob).

In truth, I was absolutely sure, jumping the last, that Dovers Hill was going to make it 7 – but credit to the horse, even with that massive burden on his shoulders, he put his head down and battled all the way to the line.

In all seriousness, it was a fine performance from Dovers Hill, who jumped from fence to fence and clearly relished the quicker ground.

I guess I have to feel a little for Ballyfoy – maybe the ground was just a bit too quick for him ;)

I think the ground was also a little quick for Sophonie – despite the official description of heavy ! I’ve not checked the times, but the ground certainly didn’t look to be riding as if it were heavy.

It is possible that Sophonie was settled just a bit too far off the pace. I expected that to be the plan – but the trouble is, the leaders didn’t stop, as I’d hoped they would.
Sophonie ran a fair race – and I’ve little doubt that she could win a race off today’s mark on truly bottom less ground. But, with spring in the air, I suspect that will happen next season…

The same was also true for Plein Pouvoir, over at Chepstow.

He is such a fine big horse – and he treats the fences like hurdles - but all he can do it plod. Unfortunately for him, Buffalo Bob was able to quicken away from him after the third last – and hard as he tried, he just couldn’t peg him back.

A bit like Sophonie, I think that is likely to be his last chance this season.

Still, he will start next season on a very fair mark – and I for one, will be looking out for him..

Just a quick word on his price, which did drift slightly. I suspect that it might have touched 3/1 at a point (I was only monitoring prices on BF), so if that was the case, it would have been 1 point lost.

Like I said this morning, I’m happy to take feedback from people on whether they think dealing with races in such a manner, could work.

Today’s 2 tips are likely to be the last ‘public’ tips that I give out this season…

I’m desperately trying to put the hours into the Cheltenham form study and I simply can’t do that and do the day-to-day racing justice.

My plan is to tidy everything up, once Cheltenham is over. I’ll write a final report for the season – make a few proposals/suggestions and then knock things on the head.

If anyone does want to join the Cheltenham fun – but hasn’t subscribed yet – there is still time !

Just follow the instructions under ’Cheltenham Special’ on the right and I’ll add you to the distribution list and send you all of the tips that have been issued so far.

TVB.

10th March - Selection rationale

I guess that all my regular readers know that today should have been the day…

We have waited all winter for Plein Pouvoir to get his conditions: heavy ground; 2 and a half miles; reasonable handicap mark; class 3 race (OK – I wanted class 4, but the top weight is only rated 120).

So what happens ? He gets his conditions – and hardly anything turns up to take him on ! and worse still, the 5 rivals who do make the effort, have all got some sort of a chance…

The opposition is headed by another one of our old friends, Buffalo Bob. He’s running over a more suitable trip than last time – and with an uncontested lead likely, he is not easily dismissed (though I do think he may be past his peak, this season).

I could also give definite chances to both Soixante and Star Galaxy…

This said, I think Plein Pouvoir is the most likely winner – but so to do the bookmakers.

At the end of the day, it all comes down to price. I think 5/2 is fair – so he would become a bet at 3/1.

However, 3/1 is not currently available…

As I’ve mentioned a few times recently, this is a situation that I’m hitting more and more with the early bird prices (Rich Lord was a good example on Thursday).

The horses I fancy, are being priced up too short to make them ‘value’ bets (those odds compilers seem to be getting a bit more shrewd !).

What I don’t really want to do, is advise bets on horses I don’t fancy as much – simply because they are at ‘value’ prices.

Instead, what I am proposing – and this is something I would look to build upon if I tip again next season – is offer guidance on the prices at which a horse becomes and bet – and how strong a bet it should be…

So, for Plein Pouvoir today, I would suggest the following:

1pt at 3/1

2pt at 4/1

3pt at 5/1

Obviously, if I do adopt this method, I won’t be able to keep a running P&L.

But at the end of the day, the P&L on my blog is irrelevant – it’s the P&L that each of you have with your bookmakers, that counts.

Hopefully, during the day, Plein Pouvoir will drift. If he does, as he reaches the odds listed above, I would suggest adding a point to your stake, until you have a maximum of 3 points on him, if he reaches 5/1.

Obviously, if he doesn’t drift to at least 3/1, then you don’t back him – but if you consistently back under the odds, but that is just the way it must be. One thing is for sure, if you consistently back t under the odds, you will make a loss.

I’m happy to take feedback on the above proposal – and I will cover it in more detail in the future – but I will go for this approach on this particular horse, today…

On the other 2 horses I fancy today, I’m happy to tip at the best available early bird prices:

Sandown 2:40

Dovers Hill is a bit of a risky proposition here, in so much as he appears out of form and has not run for almost 3 months.

However, he is a much better horse on quicker ground and has run very well when fresh in the past.

His poor form earlier in the campaign has also seen his handicap mark drop by 8lbs – and I would be hopeful that he could take advantage of that drop today.

He should be well suited by the 3 mile trip around the flat Kempton track and if he can bounce back to the form that saw him beat Helpston at Market Rasen last April, he will go very close.

The other thing that makes him an attractive bet today, is that it’s not too difficult to pick holes in his opposition. The change in ground is going to catch out quite a few horses over the next few weeks and The Sawyer and Ballyfoy are two would prefer deep winter ground. In addition, 2 or 3 of his other opponents seem to be currently well out of form.

Favourite Martys Mission also looks opposable running off a mark 4lb higher that when he was unsuccessful on his chasing debut for Paul Nichols…

All in all, at a best price of 20/1, Dovers Hill looked worth a small play.

0.75pt win Dovers Hill 20/1

Ayr 4:00

I am very keen on the chances of Sophonie today – and if she had been priced at the 9/1 (or bigger) that I had hoped, she would have been a maximum bet !!

The reason I thought she might be a bigger price, is that her chances aren’t really that obvious – however, spotlight napping her in the RP, probably caused the bookmakers to take a slightly more cautious stance and alerted one or two punters to her chances…

From a pure handicapping perspective, the chances of Sophonie aren’t obvious today.

Her chasing handicap mark is 3lb higher than her hurdles mark – and she was beaten off that hurdles mark last time out. Also, she was beaten off her current chasing mark, the last time she ran over fences (back in November, at Wetherby).

However, that chasing run was full of promise: Sophonie would have gone very close that day, if she had jumped with more fluency and I think that will be the case again today.

After the Wetherby run, Sophonie was switched to hurdles and after an unplaced run at Wetherby over Christmas, she won in the mud at Uttoxeter. The heavy ground seemed to make all the difference to her that day  - and she will get heavy ground again today, at Ayr.

The other big thing in her favour today, is the way the race is likely to unfold. As spotlight points out, there is a lot of potential pace in today’s race. There are at least 4 runners who like to force the pace or race close to it. This will put all 4 at something of a disadvantage – but should play perfectly into the hands of Sophonie, who can run a little keen but likes to be settled in.

The other thing about Sophonie, is that I just don’t think wee have seen the best of her yet. This is only her second season in the UK and she is improving all the time.

I think that the trip/going and the way the race should unfold, give her a great chance- but when you add in the fact she could well be improving, I think you have a very good bet.

2pt win Sophonie 7/1