Cheltenham Day 3

Another engrossing day today – with the inevitable ups and downs…

It started really well, as 2 of the 3 tips for the National Hunt chase, fought out the finish from the home turn.

Having looked the most likely to succeed, Four Commanders just couldn’t maintain his effort up the final hill, enabling Teaforthree to battle his way back to the front.

The other selection, Daffern Seal, also ran an honourable race to finish sixth. He travelled particularly well in rear and is definitely one to keep an eye out for in the coming weeks…

2 of the 3 selections in the second race were non-runners – which was probably a blessing in disguise, considering how comfortably Simonsig won.
The third, Benefficient, ran a fair enough race, briefly looking as if he might play a hand in the finish, but he was ultimately well beaten…

Grands Crus proved a major disappointment in the RSA chase. It is difficult to know whether he didn’t get home – or whether something just wasn’t right with him.

Whatever, he was beaten entering the home straight, leaving our ante-post selection, First Lieutenant, to fight out the finish with Bobs Worth.

There was little early pace in the race (as rather oddly, Mr Moonshine was held up) and as a consequence, First Lieutenant ran a bit too free.

I suspect that was a major factor in him not getting home quite as well as Bobs Worth.

So it was the place money we picked up rather than the win money – a disappointment, but these things happen…

I was thinking exactly the same after just one fence of the Queen Mother Champion chase, when the well supported Kauto Stone managed to take a crashing fall.

Wishfull Thinking departed even more spectacularly at the next, leaving the race as a dual between Sizing Europe and Finians Rianbow.

Ultimately it was the younger horse who proved the stronger – but for a Championship race, the form doesn’t really look that great.

In the Coral Cup, Balgarry was well supported and was given an aggressive ride by Tom Scudamore. Coming down the hill it briefly looked as if it might pay off – but he was a spent force turning for home and could only finish seventh.

Spare a thought for Featherbed Lane, who broke a leg down the back straight. He was a horse who should have had a very bright future, so the incident was particularly sad...

In the Fred Winter hurdle, is was a bit galling to back a horse from the same stable as the winner – and with the stable jockey on board ! Aside from that, there was little to take out of the race, as Soliwery was pulled up around half way and Argocat never featured.

Finally, in the bumper, Horatio Hornblower raced prominently but weakened before the home straight; whereas Jezki made ground on the run to the home straight but never looked likely to reach the leaders…

An afternoon that started so well, ultimately went down hill.

On the plus side however, only a tiny loss was made on the bets placed as part of the ‘Special’ – and this was more than offset by the profit  from the ante-post wager on First Lieutenenant.

So, onto day 3 – and we are still very much in the game…  

Jewson Novice chase

Not surprisingly, the market for the race is headed by Peddlers Cross.

He is undoubtedly the class act – but there has to be some doubt over his fitness for tomorrow’s race. If he was A1, you have to think that he would have taken on Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle – but that didn’t happen.

He might be able to get away with not being 100% in this slightly lesser company and over a slightly further trip - and the form of the McCain yard is a big positive - but non-the-less, he is not an easy horse to back in the circumstances…

Sir Des Champs is a horse I have got a lot of time for. He won at the festival last season (beating Son of Flicka) and looks to have an attitude to die for. If he’s in with a shout jumping the last, I think he will take some beating – even by Peddlers Cross…

Cristal Bonus, Champion Court, Solix and For Non Stop are all very decent animals – so whatever wins this race is clearly going to have to be from the top drawer…

Despite this strength, I’m going to take a chance with a couple of outsiders…

Zaynar would have been a match for almost all of these in his prime, over hurdles. He has also shown in flashes this season, that he could be just as good over fences – however, he has also shown signs of temperament.

Last time out at Kempton, he unseated his rider when refusing to jump the first fence. He was sent off at 3/1 to beat Cristal Bonus that day and was attempting to give him 7lb. Tomorrow they meet at level weights…

Maybe as a result of his performance, Zaynar has been transferred to the stable of David Pipe. He has his first run for the yard tomorrow – and blinkers are applied…

Just 3 runs earlier, Zaynar had jumped for fun at Ascot and taken apart a decent field. If the change of stable can revive that level of form – and he is given a suitably aggressive ride - then I think he can go very well tomorrow…

Michael Flips is a much more reliable horse – though probably a little less talented…

That said, he has been steadily improving this season and has run particularly well in his last 2 races.

Last time out, he finished second to For Non Stop at Newbury. He meets that rival on exactly the same terms tomorrow – but was only beaten 2 lengths and is tomorrow available at 4 times the price.

A feature of both his last 2 races has been his clean fast jumping – and his ability to get into a rhythm.

If he can do the same tomorrow, it will stand him in very good stead – and I can see him outrunning his odds and hopefully claiming a place, at least…

Pertemps Final

It’s difficult not to start with Buena Vista when previewing the Pertemps Final, as the horse has won the last 2 runnings of the race.

What’s more, I think he has a very good chance of making it 3 on the bounce - and I’m not saying that for sentimental reasons…

He will be racing off a mark just 2lb higher than the one he won off last year – and he didn’t just win then, he dotted up. The official margin was 4 lengths – but it was a very comfortable 4 lengths and the rest of the field were strung out behind. If he had carried 2lb more last year, it would not have made a jot of difference to the result.

Of course there is a good reason why he is only running off a mark 2lb higher tomorrow-  and that is because he has run poorly on almost every start since.

I say almost, because last time out at Newbury, there were distinct signs of a retune to form. He was completely unfancied that day but led the field to the fourth last – before running out of gas. He travelled really well that day and it looked to me as if that run would put him spot on for tomorrow (which is the only day of the year that counts for him).

I fully expect him and his new apprentice jockey to run a huge race – and I really won’t be at all surprised if he does make it a hatrick of victories in the race.

If he’s not quite up to the job, then the one I’m hoping will take advantage, is Cape Tribulation.

He was also a big eye catcher last time out at Haydock. He finished fourth to Grand Vision that day, with Alfie Sherrin just behind him.

Coming to the second last, he really looked like he would be involved in the finish.However, he didn’t quite get home and faded to finish fourth. It is the same trip tomorrow - but the heavy Haydock ground will be replaced with quicker Cheltenham turf. In theory, this won’t be ideal for Cape Tribulation, who likes the ground soft – but I’m confident he will get away with it once.

He is very well handicapped on old form and has the big race jockey of the moment, Denis O’Regan, on board.

I can see him running a very big race… 

Ryanair Chase

An absolutely cracking race – and one I’d fancy having a real go at, if we weren’t already sitting pretty with our ante-post bet…

I would be happy taking on quite a few of the field, for one reason or another – which would leave me with a very manageable short-list…

Starting at the top of the market: despite the stable form and suitability of the trip, I wouldn’t want to be with Riverside Theatre…

He was very disappointing the last time he ran at Cheltenham in the 2010 Arkle – and there must also be a chance he will ‘bounce’ following his comeback victory at Ascot…

The ground is likely to be just too quick for both Rubi Light and Blazing Tempo – whilst you must have some serious concerns about Albertas Run and Kalahari King – both 11 year olds and both returning from significant absences…

Forpadytheplasterer and Little Josh are honest sorts – but they don’t look good enough and at 10 years old, are unlikely to be progressing. Which leaves just 6…

Poquelin hasn’t proved up to the task the last 2 seasons – and with Ruby deserting him this year, his case has hardly been enhanced.

Whilst Medermit appears comfortably held by Captain Chris on a couple of pieces of form – and doesn’t really look quite good enough any way…

I think the remaining 4 – Noble Prince, Somersby, Great Endeavor and Captain Chris - have all got a shout…

Captain Chris is the riskiest of the 4. His jumping last time out was positively alarming. However, if he can recapture his form of last season – or indeed first time out this season, he would take all the beating. At 16/1 he is worth a saver…

I can see no reason why Noble Prince won’t run a really big race – but equally it wouldn’t surprise me if the string of ‘2’s against his name got one longer after tomorrow…

I could give Great Endeavour a big shout - and he looks a fair bet at 11/1,

However, the horse I would be tipping – if we hadn’t already backed him, would be Somersby…

However you look at it, his form is absolutely rock solid - even his last time out defeat of Finians Rainbow was made to look positively guilt edged today.

Furthermore, his form is consistently from the top drawer. Barring accidents., he looks almost certain to run a huge race tomorrow and with a bit of luck I think he can provide us with some compensation for First Lieutenants defeat….

World Hurdle

Great horse that he is, Big Bucks is going to get beaten one day – and I have a sneaking suspicion that day might be tomorrow…

The reason I think this, is because tomorrow, Big Bucks takes on a higher calibre of opponent that he has for some significant time – possibly ever…

Specifically, I am referring to Oscar Whiskey and Thousand Stars, horses who were good enough to be placed in last seasons Champion hurdle.

If there is no pace in tomorrow’s race, I think that one – or possible both of them – will have too much speed for Big Bucks.

Consequently, how the race will be run, becomes very important. I doubt it will be run at a crawl – but the only horse I can see who will want to make the running is Dynaste.

Dynaste has faced Big Bucks on his last 2 outings and Tom Scudamore made the mistake of going far too fast on the first of those and played right into Big Bucks hands.

Therefore, I think he will make a much slower pace tomorrow – and hope to kick going down the hill.

In that scenario, it is the speed horses that will be best suited – most specifically, Oscar Whiskey and Thousand Stars – but also possibly Voler la Vadette.

I really don’t see very much between the first 2 named: they finished close together in last seasons Champion – and have consistently run to a similar level of form.

However, Thousand Stars is available at around twice the price of Oscar Whiskey – and that is despite the fact he is proven over 3 miles and the highest level and Oscar Whiskey isn’t…

I think Voler La Vadette is also worth a small play. She is a really classy mare – with plenty of pace and she too will be well suited if the race develops into a sprint.

I was happy enough with the 14/1 on offer about her over the weekend – 25/1 tonight just looks insulting !

However, despite this, Thousand Stars is the solid play. I think he has the class to beat Big Bucks – but if the race does become a stamina test, then I think he is stronger on that front than Oscar Whiskey.

The other runners set are all of a decent standard – but they are the kind of horses that Big Bucks has been toying with for the past 3 seasons. Tomorrow he will have a different kind of battle on his hands and if comes through this one unscathed, he will deserve all the accolades that will doubtless flow his way…

Byrne Group Plate

There are a number of potentially well handicapped horses in this race…

Salut Flo, Crack Away Jack and Divers, are the 3 most obvious and there has to be a chance that one of the 3 will just waltz away with the race.

However, all 3 have significant jumping frailties and I therefore couldn’t entertain tipping any of them.

I think Salut Flo is potentially the best handicapped of the 3 – but he showed the Cheltenham fences no respect when he ran here in December and subsequently paid the price. Unless he has been taught to jump differently in the meantime I struggle to see how the outcome won’t be the same tomorrow…

A far more solid option than any of the 3, is Hectors Choice.

He has been a revelation this season, running good race after good race – yet despite this, he has only risen just over a stone in the handicap. He probably ran his best race of all last time out, when he looked likely to collect the Racing Plus chase until lack of stamina caught him out over that 3 mile trip.

There is no shame in losing to Nacarat at Kempton – yet bizarrely he has been dropped a pound for that run. More importantly however, he is cut back 3 furlongs in distance tomorrow and he looks sure to run a really big race.

I acknowledge that even if he runs to his best, he might find a better handicap rival on the day – but at 4/1 for him to be in the first 4, I think he represent a really solid each way bet.

One of his rivals who could prove to be very well handicapped, is Gilbarry. He has shown very little this season – but at the end of last season, looked to be a horse going places…

It is a bit of an act of faith, but the warmer weather and quicker ground – plus a handicap mark that has dropped 11lb since the start of the season, could see him spring back to form. At 50/1, I think he is worth a tiny play just in case…

Similarly, the case for Radetsky March is not that obvious. True he did win a handicap hurdle off a mark just 2lb lower than he races off tomorrow, on his penultimate outing, but  he has subsequently disappointed and it is a long time since he showed any worthwhile form over fences.

However, I do think he remains well weighted in that discipline and the fact he likes to race prominently should see him avoiding trouble. When he gets unto a rhythm up front, he can prove difficult to pass – and hopefully that is exactly what will happen tomorrow.

Kim Muir Chase

I was quite keen on the chances of Benbane Head in today’s National Hunt chase, but connections decided to side step that event for a shot at the Kim Muir.

Banbane Head is only a novice and has in fact only won one chase in his life – but he has already shown a reasonable level of form and there is every reason for believing he can build on that tomorrow.

Back in November, he ran third in the Badger Ales trophy at Wincanton, behind The Minack. The Minack was running off a mark of 141 that day – but is now rated 159, which shows the size of the task for Benbane Head that day. The fact he was only beaten 9 lengths, is to his credit.

Some fair horses finished well behind that day, including Richards Sundance, Aldertune and – Dovers Hill. Despite that, Benbane Head gets to run off a mark 1lb lower tomorrow…

Benbane Head has only run 3 times since then and has been well beaten on each occasion. However, the first of those runs was a 5 runner affair, where the form is probably not that reliable and in the second of them the ground had turned soft, which does not suit Benbane Head at all…

He was put away after that run and only reappeared in the middle of February, when he ran over hurdles at Wincanton. I think it is safe to assume that race was simply a prep for tomorrow…

In summary, I think Benbane Head has a lot going for him. He should be well suited by the trip and the ground and appears to have been prepared specifically for the festival. He has scope for improvement but has also demonstrated himself capable of running well in a similar contest.

The icing on the cake is the booking of Matt O’Connor for the ride. He was a crack apprentice with Colm Murphy in Ireland until he had a near life ending fall a couple of seasons back. He has clearly found it difficult since that day and has switched status to become an amateur. He will be far more competent than the majority of the jockeys riding in tomorrow s race.

I was a big fan of his when he was riding for Murphy – and it would give me enormous pleasure to see him ride a winner at the festival. After everything he has been through over the past few years, I don’t think any one would begrudge him a day in the limelight…

Summary of bets

1:30 Jewson Novice Chase

Michael Flips 0.5pt EW 25/1

Zaynar 0.5pt win 25/1

2:05 Pertemps Final

Buena Vista 1pt win 11/1

Cape Tribulation 0.5pt EW 20/1 

2:40 Ryanair Chase

Somersby 1pt EW 20/1 (ante-post)

Captain Chris 0.5pt win 16/1

3:20 World Hurdle

Thousand Stars 1pt win 9/1 

Voler La Vedette 0.5pt EW 14/1

without Big Bucks

Thousand Stars 1pt win 9/2 

4:00 Byrne Group Plate

Hectors Choice 0.5pt EW 16/1

Vino Griego 0.5pt EW 33/1 (NR - stake refunded)

Gilbarry 0.25pt win 50/1

Radetsky March 0.25pt win 40/1

4:40 Kim Muir Chase

Baile Anrai 1pt win 12/1 (NR - stake refunded)

Benbane Head 0.75pt EW 33/1

12 points staked in total