Cheltenham Day 2

I did say that I wouldn’t do my normal ‘race reviews’ for the Cheltenham festival – after all, there are only so many hours in the day ! But I simply can’t let Day 1 pass without making a few comments…

What a tremendous days racing it was - it really doesn’t take very long for me to remember why the Cheltenham festival is the centre of my entire year !

From a financial perspective, I feared that it might all go a bit pear-shaped, after Cinder and Ashes won the opener…

He was the first horse I found – but I dismissed him, due in part to the ‘incident’ with Peddlers Cross. A costly lesson…

Trifoloium ran an honourable race – and may well have prevailed on softer ground. Though that said, the winner won well – despite ploughing through the last.

In the Arkle, Sprinter Sacre lived up to all the hype. The race didn’t pan out exactly as I expected, because Ruby chose to ride Al Ferof more aggressively (an understandable move, if he wanted to beat Sprinter Sacre) - but it was all to no avail. Al Ferof made a costly mistake at the top of the hill and Sprinter Sacre cantered into the lead. Despite the best efforts of both Cue Card and Menorah, the winner was simply different class and the post race quote of 2/1 about him winning next season’s Queen Mother Champion chase, almost looks generous.

There was little to cheer in the Festival handicap chase, as neither Zarrafakt nor Baile Anrai ever figured. Instead it was left to the peerless Tom Segal (Pricewise) to find another big priced winner.

Then came the Champion hurdle – and my fears concerning the day looked to have been confirmed.

I intended to have 0.5pt on Rock on Ruby last night at the 12/1 with Ladbrokes but they shortened the price just as I was about to issue – so I decided not to bother. Needless to say, Rock on Ruby powered up the hill to record a famous victory...

However, once again, the Philip Hobbs/Richard Johnson combination saved the day for me. They did it a few times during my 4 months tipping – and they worked the oracle again today in the cross country chase.

It struck me from the start of the race, that Johnson looked determined to avenge Decembers defeat over the same course – and Balthazar King was clearly full of himself, jumping from fence to fence.

Approaching the second last, it did look like A New Story was going to over-haul him – but as I said on the blog a few times, whilst he may not be the most technically gifted jockey, I would not swap Richard Johnson for anyone, if it comes down to a battle from the last fence to the line. Once again, he didn’t let me down, forcing Balthazar King’s head back up in the shadows of the post.

At that point, the day seemed to turn and I had great hopes for both Terre Du Vent and Vino Griego.

However, Terre Du Vent made a costly error 5 hurdles form home and couldn’t recover her position. I doubt she would have troubled Quevega regardless as she looked truly imperious, taking her fourth mares title.

In the finale, Vino Griego ran well – as I expected him to. However, he was just too free and despite leading over the second last, he had nothing to offer from that point. He needs to be ridden with more restraint – but I’m not sure that Jamie Moore is the man to do that and I doubt the ride will go to anyone else…

Again, it is highly unlikely that he would have beaten the winner whatever, as Hunt Ball was again hugely impressive in victory. He really could make up into a Gold Cup contender next season. Not bad for a horse that started this season rate 69 !!

Anyway, after that ‘brief’ recap of today, on to tomorrow…!

National Hunt Chase 

Day 2 of the Festival kicks off with the National Hunt 4 mile chase…

In days gone by, this was the most important race at the meeting – but now it is seen more as a curiosity, sending amateur riders over the furthest distance of any festival race.

My main fancy for the race, is Teaforthree.

He is the highest rated horse in the race and can boast some pretty decent form this season. The trip should hold no fears for him and he should be well suited by the prevailing ground conditions. The booking of J T McNamara is also seen as a positive, as he is a previous winner of the race (he gave Rith Dubh a brilliant ride to get up close home in 2002).

Treaforthree likes to race prominently - but that tends to be an advantage in races such as this, as it means you steer clear of any trouble.

There are 2 other in the race, that catch my eye at longer odds…

The first is Four Commanders, who is a full brother to former Gold Cup winner, Kicking King.

He is unlikely to ever reach the lofty heights his sibling managed, but he has already shown himself to be a fair performer. There is a slight question mark about him getting the trip – but I would expect him to benefit greatly from running on the quicker spring ground (Kicking King has a preference for good ground).

Again ,the jockey booking (which is important in amateur races) can be seen as a positive, with Nina Carberry taking the ride.

Finally, I feel obliged to have a small play on the Dermot Weld trained Daffern Seal.

There is quite a bit of guess work involved with his one, as he has only run 4 times in his life (only twice over fences); has never run further than 2m6f – and hasn’t run for 6 months !

However, he was very impressive on his chasing debut – and represents top class connections who simply wouldn’t be coming over for just a day out.

Robbie McNamara (cousin of JT – and brother of Andrew) is just about the best amateur around in my opinion – and if anyone can get a tune out of Daffern Seal, he will.

In a very trappy race, fingers crossed one of the 3 manages to come good.  

Neptune Novice Hurdle

This looks even stronger than today’s Supreme novice hurdle !

Simonsig, Monksland and Sous Les Cieux could all be seriously smart animals – but equally, they have all been priced up short enough, considering the strength of the race.

Batonnier was very impressive in taking the trial for this race, held at the January Cheltenham meeting. He cruised through that race and could be called the winner some way from home.

He is clearly progressing quickly and the fact he has good course and distance form to his name, is a further positive. His credentials look rock solid and I will be surprised if he does not go close.

Benefficient actually beat Sous Le Cieux last time out. His odds of 50/1 that day, suggest the win was something of a fluke – and it is true that he had the run of the race. However, Sous Le Cieux had time to get to him that day, if he had been good enough – and Benefficient appeared to improve for racing on quicker ground.

The ground will be on the quick side again tomorrow, so it is difficult to justify the huge disparity in odds.

Benefficient isn’t anywhere near as solid as Batonnier – he is likely to either win or finish nowhere. However at the odds on offer, I think he is worth a small play to demonstrate that his last time out victory wasn’t a fluke.

Finally, I want to have a tiny play on The Tracey Shuffle...

He finished mid-field in last seasons Champion bumper and has only run twice over hurdles this season, finishing second at Lingfield before hacking up at Ayr.

I suspect he will go from the front and might be able to get a few of the other runners at it.

I would have preferred Tom Scudamore to be on board (the jockeys hadn’t been declared when I issued the tip) – as the jockey booking suggests he is not the stable first string.
Still, the horse doesn’t know that – and hopefully he will run a fair race regardless… 

RSA Chase

My two longest standing ante-post bets for the festival, were Grands Crus in the Gold Cup (at 33/1, backed in November) and Peddlers Cross for the Arkle…

As it turns out, neither animal will run in the race for which I backed it – yet despite potentially losing much more by Grands Curs taking up the RSA option, I don’t feel nearly as bad about it, as I did about Peddlers not running in the Arkle !

I’ll be surprised if Grands Crus doesn’t win the RSA chase tomorrow. Being in mind our ante-post position on First Lieutenant, I did actually toy with putting him up as a saver, as the generally available 6/4.

On quick ground, over the 3 mile trip, I think he will take some beating…

That said, I wouldn’t have been anywhere near as confident about his chances, if Mr Moonshine were not running in the race. He is the only pace angle I can see – and Grands Crus will definitely need a strong gallop if he is to win.

A lack of pace is always a potential issue with a small field – and tomorrows field is much smaller than expected.

Of course, that is good news for our ante post bet, First Lieutenant, who looks sure to run a big race on his favoured quick ground.

In fact, if Grands Crus is beaten, I think First Lieutenant is the horse most likely to hand out the defeat, so I am very comfortable with our position on the race.

Of the others, I’m not a big fan of Bobs Worth (over fences) or Join Together, whilst I’ll be surprised if the Irish horses prove good enough.

In fact the other horse I can see outrunning his odds, is the aforementioned Mr Moonshine.

As I said, he is likely to get an uncontested lead – and the conditions of the race should suit him fine. On official ratings, he has not got much to find with most of the field and I can certainly see him outrunning his current odds of 80/1.

There will be worse each-way shouts, that's for sure…

Queen Mother Champion Chase

I’m a big fan of Sizing Europe, but seeing him priced up as an odds on shot for the Queen Mother Champion chase, just seems wrong.

He’s a really good horse – but lets be honest, he’s no Master Minded, or Moscow Flyer or Viking Flagship – and certainly no Pearlyman ! (my favourite racehorse of all time :D ).

That said, when I look at the opposition, I can understand why he is that price – I don’t think he’s frightened them away, it is just that there is just a dearth of top class 2 miles chasers at the moment.

Of course, that is not Sizing Europe’s fault – and the situation will doubtless change next season, when Sprinter Sacre has graduated form the novice ranks.

For tomorrow though, I can’t help but feel that whilst Sizing Europe looks the best horse in the field, in absolute terms, he doesn’t set an impossibly high standard…

That said, looking through the field, I can only see 2 horses who have the potential to beat him: Finians Rainbow and Kauto Stone.

The chances of Finians Rainbow are the more obvious. He was a decent novice last season, finishing second in the Arkle before winning well at Aintree.

He has continued his progression this season, wining at Kempton after making a shocking mistake 4 out – and then finishing runner up to Somersby in the Victor Chandler chase at Ascot.

However, it is that second run which I feel demonstrates his limitations. He was beaten by Somersby that day and whilst he is a good horse – he is no crack 2 miler.

If he is to win tomorrow, Finians Rainbow will need to have improved a good deal from the Ascot run.

Kauto Stone is a half brother to Kauto Star and was a grade 1 winner in his native France as a 4 year old.

He made his debut for Paul Nicholls at Down Royal last November and was mightily impressive in victory.

Next time out, he tackled Sizing Europe at Sandown in the Tingle Creek chase. That was a heck of an ask for a relative novice and he ran really well, keeping tabs on the reigning champion until his jumping started to let him down over the final few obstacles.

Despite this, he was only beaten 8 lengths on the day – a gap which I can see being closed tomorrow…

I was actually tempted to tip Kauto Stone ante-post for this race based on that performance but it looked likely that connections would opt for the Ryanair chase over an extra half mile. However Kauto Stone disappointed in his prep race for that target and instead finds himself back in the Queen Mother field…

Hopefully, that will turn out to be a blessing in disguise. Despite running poorly at Ascot, Kauto Stone showed real pace and I don’t see the drop back in trip as an issue.

He does have 8 lengths to make up on Sizing Europe but he is only 6 years old and so there is still likely to be improvement in him.

If anyone can eak that improvement out, it is Paul Nicholls – and with the rest of the opposition looking limited, I am really optimistic that Kauto Stone will be able to run in to a place tomorrow – and who knows, with a bit of luck, he might even be able to get the better of the current champion.

Coral Cup

When the overnight declarations for the Coral cup were released this morning, I was really surprised to see that Balgarry had made it into the field.

He was way down the list when I looked over the weekend and expected him to be running in the Martin Pipe conditionals race on Friday instead.

However this is the more valuable race – and I, like connections, feel he has an excellent chance of success in this race.

In truth, his chances aren’t that easy to assess, as he has only run once in this country.

That run came at Newbury at the beginning of this month, when he took apart a competitive field, recording an easy victory over Nampour. The merit of that performance was highlighted on Saturday, when Nampour himself ran an excellent race to finished runner up in the Imperial Cup.

Balgarry gets into tomorrows race off his old mark of 129 – plus a 5lb penalty. Following the Newbury victory, the official handicapper raised him to a mark of 140 – so he is officially 6lb well in tomorrow.

However, the real thing about Balgarry, is his potential. He won by 3 and a half lengths at Newbury – but at one point it looked as if it might be double that margin. A rating of 140 might significantly under-estimate his ability.

The big concern with him however, is whether he will ‘bounce’ following his Newbury effort. That was his first run for 18 months, so there is a possibility that he will need longer than the 2 weeks he has had, to get over it.

However, if that isn’t the case, then I can see him going very close tomorrow…
The other one I want on side for tomorrow’s race, is Featherbed Lane.

He is a much more exposed horse - but has been improving throughout the season.

He transferred into the care of Philip Hobbs at the start of this season and on his first outing for his new trainer, won well at Ascot, off a mark of 120. He then defeated Reindeer Dippin in the mud at Aintree, before running Swincombe Flame very close at Kempton.

His final outing was in a conditions race at Haydock and although he was ultimately well beaten behind Restless Harry, it looked to me as if it was the 3 mile trip that was his undoing that day.

He is dropped back to 2m5f tomorrow which should suit him better and although he has a mark of 150 to defy, Philip Hobbs has wisely enlisted the services of 7lb claimer James Best, to reduce his burden.

It will be a tough ask – but I think the horse is still progressing and I expect him to run very well.

Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle

Of all the races run during the 4 days of the Cheltenham festival, this is the one that appeals least to me…

I’m not a big fan of juvenile hurdles – especially handicap hurdles – but the winner will be payed out in the same way as all the other races, so I have diligently gone through the runners.

Initially I was looking for horses who were relatively unexposed. The theory being that you would ideally want to find a horse that hadn’t fully shown it’s hand to the handicapper (and therefore had scope for improvement).

I think Argocat is such a horse. He was a fair performer on the flat and has only run 3 times over hurdles, On the second of those runs, he finished behind Darroun and Shadow Catcher - both of whom are prominent in the betting for Fridays Triumph Hurdle.

On his final outing, he was a comfortable winner of a Thurles maiden hurdle. The suggestion is that he is improving – whilst still being unexposed.

I am happy to keep him onside, however, whilst I was looking though the field it struck me that there were a number of runners who had acquired their ratings whilst running in France for other stables.

There is a distinct possibility that these animals will improve for the switch to UK stables and therefore show themselves to be well handicapped.

The favourite, Vendor, is an example of such an animal – but so too is Soliwery.

He has also only run 3 times in his life: twice in his native France and once in the UK.

He showed distinct promise on that UK debut at Sandown and if he can build on that, I think he should run well tomorrow.

All this said, the race remains one to be cautious about and therefore stakes have been kept to a minimum…

Champion Bumper

Another race where it is very difficult to get a handle on things – and one where again, stakes should be kept low…

That said, I was really taken by the performance of Horatio Hornblower when he made he debut at Newbury in the middle of February.

Historically, that race has always been a hot contest (I remember watching Mosigneur run in it before wining the Cheltenham Bumper) and Horatio Hornblower was a relatively unconsidered 25/1 shot.

However, he ran a race full of promise – and would probably have won, if he had not shown inexperience in the final few furlongs.

With that run under his belt – and receiving the valuable 4 year old allowance – I think he can go very well tomorrow.

I am taking another 4 year old as a saver.

He is the Jessica Harrington trained Jezki. He has run a couple of times in Ireland and won on both occasions, showing a good attitude and significant ability.

There is a fair bit of guess work involved, trying to figure out which form lines are the strongest, but in a race where there are no obvious standouts, he looks decent value at 14/1.

Summary of Bets

1:30 National Hunt Chase

Teaforthree 1pt win 8/1 

Benbane Head 0.5pt win 25/1 (NR - stake refunded)

Daffern Seal 0.5pt win 25/1

Four Commanders 0.5pt win 14/1

2:05 Neptune Novice Hurdle

Benefficient 0.5pt win 20/1 Generally

The Tracey Shuffle 0.25pt EW 66/1 L,C (50/1 Generally)

Batonnier 0.5pt win 9/1 BS,PP

Mount Benbulben 0.5pt EW 25/1 T,BS,BF,SJ (NR - stake refunded)

2:40 RSA Chase

First Lieutenant 1pt EW 20/1 (ante-post)

3:20 Queen Mother Champion Chase

Kauto Stone 0.75pt EW 18/1 SJ (16/1 Generally)

4:00 Coral Cup

Balgarry 1pt win 12/1

Featherbed Lane 0.75pt win 16/1

Batonnier 0.75pt win 14/1 (NR - stake refunded)

4:40 Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle

Argocat 0.5pt win 20/1

Soliwery 0.5pt win 25/1

5:15 Champion Bumper

Horatio Hornblower 1pt win 16/1

Jezki 0.5pt win 14/1

11.75 points staked in total