10th March - Selection rationale

I guess that all my regular readers know that today should have been the day…

We have waited all winter for Plein Pouvoir to get his conditions: heavy ground; 2 and a half miles; reasonable handicap mark; class 3 race (OK – I wanted class 4, but the top weight is only rated 120).

So what happens ? He gets his conditions – and hardly anything turns up to take him on ! and worse still, the 5 rivals who do make the effort, have all got some sort of a chance…

The opposition is headed by another one of our old friends, Buffalo Bob. He’s running over a more suitable trip than last time – and with an uncontested lead likely, he is not easily dismissed (though I do think he may be past his peak, this season).

I could also give definite chances to both Soixante and Star Galaxy…

This said, I think Plein Pouvoir is the most likely winner – but so to do the bookmakers.

At the end of the day, it all comes down to price. I think 5/2 is fair – so he would become a bet at 3/1.

However, 3/1 is not currently available…

As I’ve mentioned a few times recently, this is a situation that I’m hitting more and more with the early bird prices (Rich Lord was a good example on Thursday).

The horses I fancy, are being priced up too short to make them ‘value’ bets (those odds compilers seem to be getting a bit more shrewd !).

What I don’t really want to do, is advise bets on horses I don’t fancy as much – simply because they are at ‘value’ prices.

Instead, what I am proposing – and this is something I would look to build upon if I tip again next season – is offer guidance on the prices at which a horse becomes and bet – and how strong a bet it should be…

So, for Plein Pouvoir today, I would suggest the following:

1pt at 3/1

2pt at 4/1

3pt at 5/1

Obviously, if I do adopt this method, I won’t be able to keep a running P&L.

But at the end of the day, the P&L on my blog is irrelevant – it’s the P&L that each of you have with your bookmakers, that counts.

Hopefully, during the day, Plein Pouvoir will drift. If he does, as he reaches the odds listed above, I would suggest adding a point to your stake, until you have a maximum of 3 points on him, if he reaches 5/1.

Obviously, if he doesn’t drift to at least 3/1, then you don’t back him – but if you consistently back under the odds, but that is just the way it must be. One thing is for sure, if you consistently back t under the odds, you will make a loss.

I’m happy to take feedback on the above proposal – and I will cover it in more detail in the future – but I will go for this approach on this particular horse, today…

On the other 2 horses I fancy today, I’m happy to tip at the best available early bird prices:

Sandown 2:40

Dovers Hill is a bit of a risky proposition here, in so much as he appears out of form and has not run for almost 3 months.

However, he is a much better horse on quicker ground and has run very well when fresh in the past.

His poor form earlier in the campaign has also seen his handicap mark drop by 8lbs – and I would be hopeful that he could take advantage of that drop today.

He should be well suited by the 3 mile trip around the flat Kempton track and if he can bounce back to the form that saw him beat Helpston at Market Rasen last April, he will go very close.

The other thing that makes him an attractive bet today, is that it’s not too difficult to pick holes in his opposition. The change in ground is going to catch out quite a few horses over the next few weeks and The Sawyer and Ballyfoy are two would prefer deep winter ground. In addition, 2 or 3 of his other opponents seem to be currently well out of form.

Favourite Martys Mission also looks opposable running off a mark 4lb higher that when he was unsuccessful on his chasing debut for Paul Nichols…

All in all, at a best price of 20/1, Dovers Hill looked worth a small play.

0.75pt win Dovers Hill 20/1

Ayr 4:00

I am very keen on the chances of Sophonie today – and if she had been priced at the 9/1 (or bigger) that I had hoped, she would have been a maximum bet !!

The reason I thought she might be a bigger price, is that her chances aren’t really that obvious – however, spotlight napping her in the RP, probably caused the bookmakers to take a slightly more cautious stance and alerted one or two punters to her chances…

From a pure handicapping perspective, the chances of Sophonie aren’t obvious today.

Her chasing handicap mark is 3lb higher than her hurdles mark – and she was beaten off that hurdles mark last time out. Also, she was beaten off her current chasing mark, the last time she ran over fences (back in November, at Wetherby).

However, that chasing run was full of promise: Sophonie would have gone very close that day, if she had jumped with more fluency and I think that will be the case again today.

After the Wetherby run, Sophonie was switched to hurdles and after an unplaced run at Wetherby over Christmas, she won in the mud at Uttoxeter. The heavy ground seemed to make all the difference to her that day  - and she will get heavy ground again today, at Ayr.

The other big thing in her favour today, is the way the race is likely to unfold. As spotlight points out, there is a lot of potential pace in today’s race. There are at least 4 runners who like to force the pace or race close to it. This will put all 4 at something of a disadvantage – but should play perfectly into the hands of Sophonie, who can run a little keen but likes to be settled in.

The other thing about Sophonie, is that I just don’t think wee have seen the best of her yet. This is only her second season in the UK and she is improving all the time.

I think that the trip/going and the way the race should unfold, give her a great chance- but when you add in the fact she could well be improving, I think you have a very good bet.

2pt win Sophonie 7/1