19th February - Selection rationale

Regular readers won’t be surprised to hear that I thought long and hard before putting up Lucky Landing today…

He is a horse that I have already tipped twice – and he has let us down on both occasions.

However, on both occasions he travelled like a horse much better than his rating – and traded around even money IR, before finding nothing when put under pressure.

My theory on the horse (unsubstantiated, I might add !) is that he has had breathing difficulties. This was supported by the fact that he wore a tongue tie on his final 2 starts for Donald McCain.

His last run for McCain was in January and he next appeared in a ‘bumpers for jumpers’ race at Southwell last weekend, this time representing the Tony Coyle stable.

It was interesting to see that the tongue tie was no longer in place – suggesting that his new trainer either didn’t think there was a need – or that corrective surgery had taken place in the interim...

In the race itself, Lucky Landing again travelled well – but was passed as the runners entered the home straight. I am reasonably confident that the ‘old’ Lucky Landing would have just weakened at that point – however, the new’ Lucky Landing proceeded to battle back and briefly looked like he might get up.

The problem is, it is impossible to know what that form is worth. It looked a very weak bumper so the form could amount to very little.

However, the important thing for me, was that Lucky Landing didn’t simply capitulate when asked for an effort, as he has done in the past.

I have no doubt that he is well handicapped and has more than enough ability to win a race like today’s -  provided he has no physical issues,.

On balance, I figured it was worth taking a small risk that his problems have been resolved. If they have, I think he can win – and 10/1 will then seem like a very good price indeed !!

1pt win Lucky Landing 10/1

18th February - Race reviews

Another disappointing day, where the only consolation was that I didn’t tip more horses – or stake more on the ones I did tip !!

Just a few words on the performance of each:

Handy Andy ran a nothing sort of race: mid-division at best and weakening up the home straight.

He clearly isn’t as good as I initially thought and he is one to remove from any lists, until his rating plummets or he is put back over fences (which I’m sure he will be, in the fullness of time).

Atouchbetweenacara ran very well.

He raced prominently and still looked to be going nicely turning into the home straight. Unfortunately, his jumping let him down a little over the last few fences and he could only finish fourth.

If he gets his ideal conditions next time out (as described this morning) – he will win !

The question is whether connections will be patient enough to leave him for a couple of months and target a lower grade handicap on quicker ground. Only time will tell…

Carrickmines also ran a fair race.

He was held up at the back, but made good headway on the home turn. However his effort flattened out at that point and he could only plug on to finish eight.

He will be dropped a few pounds for this and is not one to give up on completely…

Over at Ascot, Little Josh ran very poorly in the Ascot chase, eventually pulling up.

He did lead the field for the first few fences, but was soon caught and overtaken by the rest of the field.

He should have run better than he did, suggesting that he either ’bounced’ following his Cheltenham run, or that he didn’t like going right handed.

Finally, Eastlake was the subject of one of my trademark plunges (possibily helped a little by Tom Segal). He tanked through the race (as he had done in the Lanzarote) and was still looking good approaching the home turn.

However, his early exertions had clearly taken their toll and he weakened badly up the straight, ultimately finishing well beaten.

I’m not sure what the plans are for him, but it looks to me as if he needs a fast run 2 miles. If he can get into the race, I would have thought that the county hurdle at the festival would be ideal. I’ll be keeping my eye on him…

18th February - Selection rationale

The volume and quality of horses running today is quite scary !

It has come about as a result of the recent cold snap, which has prevented a lot of horses from running for a few weeks; and the fact that we are now just under a month from the start of the Cheltenham festival.

Anything that harbours Cheltenham ambitions, and required a run prior to the festival, needs to be getting it in sharpish !

In order to find a winner, is therefore going to be important to identify the horses that are fit - and that aren’t being prepped for Cheltenham.

If you can find the right sub-set of runners, then the chances of hitting on a winner, are greatly improved.
Hopefully my selections for the day, all fall into that category…

Ascot 3:00

This is quite a weak race for a grade 1, with Riverside Theatre top rated at 165.

Furthermore, there are question marks over him (he’s not run since winning this race last year). He is unlikley to be founding wanting for fitness, but he does look beatable…

Second favourite is Kauto Stone and although very inexperienced, he has looked good on what we have seen of him so far. I’ll be surprised if he finishes out of the frame..

However, for the selection, I’ve opted for Little Josh.

He is lightly raced for a 10 year old but has shown a good level of form: most notably when winning last seasons Paddy Power chase.

That win saw his rating rise to 155 – just 10lb shy of Riverside Theatre – and, despite his age, I believe he still has scope to improve a little further…

Little Josh has only run 3 times since his Paddy Power victory and has been well beaten on each occasion.
However, last time out – on his seasonal debut for this campaign – he ran a cracker in the Cotswold chase at Cheltenham’s January meeting.

Over the 3m2f trip, he was going as well as anything until at the top of the hill.

He faded from that point – but he has never been a 3mile horse – and there is the possibility that he needed the run anyway (his first for a year).

If that has brought him on, they I can see him being very competitive back over this more suitable trip.

He may not quite have the class to win – but I could definitely see him getting a place – and if the favourites do under-perform, any thing is possible…

0.5pt EW Little Josh 20/1

Ascot 3:35

I don’t generally like tipping in these ultra-competitive handicaps – but I’m prepared to make an exception with this one…

Eastlake was a massive eye-catcher last time out in the Lanzarote hurdle at Kempton (it would appear that even Tom Segal noticed him ;) ). Coming round the home turn, he was absolutely cruising – but he emptied up the straight and eventually finished well beaten.

That was his first run in a big field handicap and I’m sure he will have learnt plenty from it. However, the way he travelled through the race suggested that he is well up to wining both in this grade –and off his current mark.

Today he gets to run over a couple of furlongs less, which I’m sure will help. His handicap mark was unchanged following the Lanzarote, which seems him get in today off 10st. Jonjo has also chosen to put up crack apprentice Maurice Linehan, which strikes me as hugely significant.

This guy is well worth his 7lb claim and I think this is the point in the season when the Jonjo stable will start to properly exploit it,

Obviously there is a danger, not just because of his profile – but also because of his connections, that he won’t perform today, so the bet has to be win only.

However, if he does perform, I get the feeling that he will go very close indeed…

1pt win Eastleak 16/1

Wincanton 2:00

This is a risky bet - but it has been stake accordingly…

I am tipping Handy Andy simply because I still believe that he is significantly better than his current handicap mark.

We were on him last time out, when he ran disappointingly at Warwick.

He seemed to race a little too freely that day – and just didn’t get home.

He has been dropped a couple of pounds in the handicap as a result of that run – and also has stable apprentice Steven Clements on today, reducing his weight by a further 7lb.

However, more importantly he is being dropped back in trip by 3 furlongs. That should help if he is again free today – and it is also closer to the distance over which he was spectacularly successful on his debut last season.

There is a real chance that he might bomb again today – but at the odds available, I think it is worth a small risk that he class he appeared to demonstrate last season, is still in tact…

0.5pt win Handy Andy 22/1

Wincanton 2:35

When I do stop tipping, after Cheltenham, I intend to have a final post, listing the horses that have provided us with most entertainment over the period…

Of course Fiendish Flame will be in there – but so too will Plein Pouvoir – and Atouchbetweenacara…

I think today is the third time I will have tipped him – and he’s not got within 40 lengths of the winner of the previous 2 occasions !!

However, last time in particular, he showed that the ability is still there – it just needs to be harnessed.

The fact is, that at his peak, Atouchbetweenacara would have carried this field. He was rated 148 just over 2 years ago – on the back of  a 24 length with of a mark of 129..

Today he is running off a mark of 117 – and has a 7lb claimer on board. That is a near 40lb drop (including a bit of artistic licence !) in a 24 month period…

Ofcourse, a drop in the weight is warranted to an extent – but I just get the feeling that this one has slipped a bit too far…

He is a 1 point tip today because conditions are not absolutely perfect (I would like to see him carrying top weight in a class 4 race, on good ground and after a 2 month break) – however, they are not too bad (aside from the race class) and I do like the fact that the blinkers, which were experimented with last time out, have been dispensed with today.

Hopefully he can bounce back to form today and make a mockery of his current rating…

If not, then maybe Carrickmines can capitalise…

He has never been as highly rated as Atouchbetwenacara, but he is still a fair tool – and was in good form over hurdles, earlier in the season.

He is back over fences today – but off a mark only 2lb higher than his last winning mark (when he absolutely bolted up at Kempton).

The trip may be a little on the short side for him – but he is a strong traveller, so I don’t think he will be done for toe.

It is a slight concern that he bled last time out – but hopefully there will be no repeat of that today.

Assuming that is the case, then he looks too big a price at 20/1…

1pt win Atouchbetweenacara 8/1

0.5pt win Carrickmines 20/1

17th February - Race reviews

I think today has to go down as a poor performance on my behalf…

If I’m honest, I probably shouldn’t have tipped: however, I’d opted out of the previous day and there was some very good racing.

Unfortunately, I really struggled to find any time for form study last night – and I think it showed.

In fairness, I don’t always need a lot of time for form study – a lot of knowledge is kept in my head. However, I do need time/space to properly assess races and I didn’t really have that last night.

I’ll try to avoid a repeat !!!

A few quick words on the performances of the 3 tips:

Whilst I quite enjoyed watching Zaynar school round in the first – though I would have been happier if I’d not had to pay for the pleasure !

For the second time this week, a horse who has made the running in all of it’s recent races, was allowed to lob along close to a soft pace.

In truth, he probably wouldn’t have got near Sprinter Sacre, regardless of how he was ridden – but it would have been nice to have at least had a chance.

Presumably Zaynar will now head for Cheltenham and one of the 2m4f races – either the Jewson or possibly, one of the handicaps. Either way, I suspect you will see him ridden far more aggressively.

Sprinter Sacre does look as if he will be tough to beat  in the Arkle – but I’m not sure we learnt a lot more about him today. The demands of Cheltenham should play more to the strengths of Peddlers Cross – and I certainly haven’t given up hope for him in that race.

I was very disappointed with the run of Sound Stage at Sandown.

I felt he was probably my best bet of the day – but he was beaten a long way out.

There is a chance that he doesn’t get the 3 mile trip – but that said, I’m not sure he was ever going well enough to feature at the finish.

He has been very lightly raced over the past couple of years – with some significant absences. The suggestion is that he has had some issues and maybe these are going to stop him fulfilling his potential.

Whatever, he is a horse I would struggle to follow until I saw some more positive signs…

Finally, Stow ran a reasonable race to finish fifth at Newbury – but he was well beaten by some progressive rivals.

In truth, that was always a danger and I can’t really have any complaints about the way he ran.

It looks as if he needs softer ground to be at his most effective – plus slightly weaker opposition.

He is worth keeping an eye out for in the right conditions – and in a slightly lower grade of race.

17th February - Selection rationale

I’ve been a little short of time today and am desperately trying to catch up on a few things (hence the very late post !) – so the logic for tomorrow’s tips, will be a little less comprehensive than normal.

I’ve also latched on to a few of our old friends for the tips – though only one of them has actually been a previous TVB tip.

In truth, the racing tomorrow is fiercely competitive. This is primarily due to the re-scheduling of last weekends abandoned Newbury card (plus the Scilly Isles novice chase, carried over from the Sandown card that was abandoned the weekend before).

The advantage of that however, was that for once, I was able to tip mid-week and not see blue appear all over odds checker within 5 minutes of me issuing !

Consequently, I would be optimistic that you will all have got the prices on tomorrows selections – so all they’ve got to do now, is win !!

Newbury 2:10

I’m going out on a limb a little here, by opposing Sprinter Sacre – but I think there is good reason to do so…

He is undoubtedly a hugely talented horse and is unbeaten over fences – but he has faced precisely 7 rivals in his 2 chases – and only one of those had any pretence to being of his calibre.

When he made his fencing debut at Doncaster, he was spectacular – but he also struck me as a little chancy. I admit that I didn’t feel the same way about him second time out at Kempton – but that nagging doubt concerning his jumping – especially if put under pressure – remains.

He made well turn out to be the real deal – but as he is also not likely to be 100% tomorrow, I think he is worth taking on at odds of 4/7…

Hold Fast, French Opera and Oh So Lucky are all decent animals - but they have limitations and it will be a little disappointing if any are good enough to win (though far from impossible !).

The really interesting one, is Zaynar…

This horse was good enough – and quick enough – to finish third in the Champion hurdle a couple of seasons back, so it is difficult to argue that he doesn’t have either the class or speed to take this race (unless Sprinter Sacre really is from the top drawer).

He was disappointing last season, when stepped up in distance over hurdles – but has gradually been coming back into form this season over fences, for new trainer Nick Williams…

He was spectacular on his penultimate outing at Ascot, when destroying a very decent field of novice chaser with a bold display of front running.

He tried to repeat the dose with seasoned handicappers next time out and whilst he wasn’t successful, he lost nothing in defeat – and doubtless gained some very valuable experience.

I suspect that he will be ridden aggressively tomorrow, to enable his undoubted stamina to come into play.

If he can get into a rhythm up front, then with his proven class, I think he will take some catching.

Coincidently, that will also be the time when we will also learn just how good our investment on Peddlers Cross for the Arkle, is !!

1pt win Zaynar 9/1

Newbury 2:25

I shouldn’t need to write a lot about Stow…

We’ve been on him the last twice he has run: the first of those races was at Chepstow, when he was the subject of an almighty plunge, but was beaten after about 2 hurdles!; the second was at Haydock, where he ran a cracking race, but was beaten by the ultra tough, Reindeer Dippin.

That second run was very good indeed. Reindeer Dippin was a well handicapped horse that day and Stow was the only runner that ever looked likely to beat him.

He has been raised just a pound for that performance and the blinkers that were first tried that day, are retained tomorrow.  

He actually won this very race 12 months ago and whilst he is running off a 4lb higher mark tomorrow, I can see no reason why he shouldn’t again go very close…

The biggest issue is probably the quality of the opposition. I say ‘probably’ because we can’t be absolutely sure. However, there are 3 very progressive novices running in the race and it would be no surprise if at least one of them didn’t prove to be a step ahead of the handicapper.

That said, all 3 have to give Stow the best part of a stone – or more – and they have all been priced up at around half his odds.

With their abilities still unproven to a degree – but the market assuming the ability is there – the value call has to be a small play on Stow.

0.5pt win Stow 10/1

Sandown 2:10

I may have moved away from Newbury for the final tip of the day – but the race is just as tricky to solve…

That said, Sound Stage was horse that really caught my eye last time out – and I’m sure he is well handicapped, so he was always likely to be a tip…

Sound Stage first came to my attention when he finished runner up to Midnight Chase at Cheltenham, almost 2 years ago. He’s only run twice over fences since then: firstly when beaten by Buffalo Bob at Newbury early last season; and secondly when falling at the last in the race won by Glenns Boy, also at Newbury, last month.

Considering that was his first chase run for over a year, Sound Stage ran really well that day, travelling strongly until he weakened down the home straight.

Hopefully that run will have brought him to peak fitness (and the fall won’t have negatively affected his confidence) in which case, I think he has to go very close tomorrow.

There are plenty of potential dangers in the race, headed by the now Paul Nichools trained Martys Mission. He has the natural ability to be a big danger of a mark of just 113. However, he has been absent from the racecourse for over 12 months.

Loch Ba, Minella Theatre and Richards Sundance should all go well, but I’ve felt for a while that Sound Stage has the ability to be much better than a 125 rated animal – and hopefully tomorrow, he’ll prove that point.

0.75pt EW Sound Stage 16/1

15th February - Race review

I have to say that I found today’s race a little frustrating to watch…

Quite why Alex Merriam didn’t grasp the nettle on Evella, when she has led in virtually all of her previous chases – and when there was no other front runner in the race – I simply don’t know…

Instead, he seemed happy to lob along side Paddy Brennan on Ring Bo Ree. I don’t even think that Brennan particularly wanted to be in the lead – but what do you do if you are gifted an uncontested one ?!

I did think briefly, that the tactics were maybe to sit in behind the leader down the back straight, where apparently there was a strong wind. But no, the tactics there were to race a couple of horse widths wide – and half a length down…

Maybe not too surprisingly, having not raced in her preferred style – and having given ground away all the way round, Evella started to fade after the fourth last fence.

In truth, she was eventually pulled up, so the tactics may have been irrelevant – but they were irritating non-the-less !!

Still, we also had Nataani in the race – and despite making a few early mistakes, he travelled nicely in third, rounding the home turn.
However, Paddy Brennan had ridden a canny race from the front and despite Ring Bo Ree making a complete mess of the final fence (a far worse than the mistake that saw Charingworth exit yesterday) he has sufficient in reserve to withstand Nataani’s late, persistent challenge…

15th February - Selection rationale

There were a few reasons why I started this blog, but one of them was in order to get into dialogue with others about race horses…

I try to write in an open, positive fashion to encourage this to happen – but for whatever reason, it hadn’t really – not until I decided to send out the tips via email, that is…

That move forced a lot of you to contact me – and some of you to open up a little more. That manifested itself in more comments on the blog – and some interesting exchanges with a few of you.

One such exchange got us our ante-post tip for the RSA chase, First Lieutenant (thanks for that Kevin) and another, caused me to keep a closer eye on a horse called Evella…

Evella last ran in the now infamous Toby Belch race at Leicester.

As I’m sure a lot of you will recall, I tipped Toby Belch at 14/1 – and he promptly went off 11/4 favourite !

One of our number (I’ll call him Sean – because that is his name –  LOL !) was keen that I kept an eye on Evella in that race.

I was happy to do so, as she is a horse I know quite well from the past.

I didn’t expect her to run particularly well that day, as she seemed way out of form – and I felt she needed softer ground than she was going to get. However, I was wrong…

Evella ran a cracking race that day, leading to the third last – and even when passed by the eventual winner, she still looked like the second best horse in the race.

However, she weakened dramatically after the third last fence and eventually finished seventh, beaten 85 lengths.

As a result of that, she has been dropped 6lb in the handicap. She is also dropping back in trip by half a mile – which considering how well she was going on the home turn at Leicester, can only be considered a good thing.

I think there is also a possibility that she needed the Leicester run, as it was only her second run back after 9 months off the track.

However, the icing on the cake with Evella – and this is what makes her a particularly good bet tomorrow – is that she is the only front runner in the race.

Better than that, there isn’t even another horse in the race that is particularly bothered about racing prominently.

This should mean that she has an uncontested lead – and a well handicapped horse, running into form, with an uncontested lead, is a dangerous beast ! Trust me on that one !!

The reason I’ve ‘only’ had 1.5 points on her, is because the opposition is a bit stronger than I would have liked (I refer you back to the blog post from Sunday, on staking).

In fact, so much so, that I want a saver on one of her rivals !!

That horse is Nataani, who ran really well on his chasing debut last time out.

Bizarrely (and I do mean bizarrely) he has been dropped 8lb for that run – which makes him a huge danger.

I can see Evella leading all the way – but with one horse making relentless inroads into her lead during the last half mile.

That horse is Nataani – though whether he actually gets to her is a different matter.

I figured it was worth investing half a point on him just in case though  ;)

I guess the really brave amongst you might consider a forecast – I’ve dabbled for the tiniest stake B365 would allow.

That said, I will be happy enough if either of them come home in fornt – though particularly so if it is Evella…

1.5pt win Evella 16/1

0.5pt win Nataani 8/1