17th February - Selection rationale

I’ve been a little short of time today and am desperately trying to catch up on a few things (hence the very late post !) – so the logic for tomorrow’s tips, will be a little less comprehensive than normal.

I’ve also latched on to a few of our old friends for the tips – though only one of them has actually been a previous TVB tip.

In truth, the racing tomorrow is fiercely competitive. This is primarily due to the re-scheduling of last weekends abandoned Newbury card (plus the Scilly Isles novice chase, carried over from the Sandown card that was abandoned the weekend before).

The advantage of that however, was that for once, I was able to tip mid-week and not see blue appear all over odds checker within 5 minutes of me issuing !

Consequently, I would be optimistic that you will all have got the prices on tomorrows selections – so all they’ve got to do now, is win !!

Newbury 2:10

I’m going out on a limb a little here, by opposing Sprinter Sacre – but I think there is good reason to do so…

He is undoubtedly a hugely talented horse and is unbeaten over fences – but he has faced precisely 7 rivals in his 2 chases – and only one of those had any pretence to being of his calibre.

When he made his fencing debut at Doncaster, he was spectacular – but he also struck me as a little chancy. I admit that I didn’t feel the same way about him second time out at Kempton – but that nagging doubt concerning his jumping – especially if put under pressure – remains.

He made well turn out to be the real deal – but as he is also not likely to be 100% tomorrow, I think he is worth taking on at odds of 4/7…

Hold Fast, French Opera and Oh So Lucky are all decent animals - but they have limitations and it will be a little disappointing if any are good enough to win (though far from impossible !).

The really interesting one, is Zaynar…

This horse was good enough – and quick enough – to finish third in the Champion hurdle a couple of seasons back, so it is difficult to argue that he doesn’t have either the class or speed to take this race (unless Sprinter Sacre really is from the top drawer).

He was disappointing last season, when stepped up in distance over hurdles – but has gradually been coming back into form this season over fences, for new trainer Nick Williams…

He was spectacular on his penultimate outing at Ascot, when destroying a very decent field of novice chaser with a bold display of front running.

He tried to repeat the dose with seasoned handicappers next time out and whilst he wasn’t successful, he lost nothing in defeat – and doubtless gained some very valuable experience.

I suspect that he will be ridden aggressively tomorrow, to enable his undoubted stamina to come into play.

If he can get into a rhythm up front, then with his proven class, I think he will take some catching.

Coincidently, that will also be the time when we will also learn just how good our investment on Peddlers Cross for the Arkle, is !!

1pt win Zaynar 9/1

Newbury 2:25

I shouldn’t need to write a lot about Stow…

We’ve been on him the last twice he has run: the first of those races was at Chepstow, when he was the subject of an almighty plunge, but was beaten after about 2 hurdles!; the second was at Haydock, where he ran a cracking race, but was beaten by the ultra tough, Reindeer Dippin.

That second run was very good indeed. Reindeer Dippin was a well handicapped horse that day and Stow was the only runner that ever looked likely to beat him.

He has been raised just a pound for that performance and the blinkers that were first tried that day, are retained tomorrow.  

He actually won this very race 12 months ago and whilst he is running off a 4lb higher mark tomorrow, I can see no reason why he shouldn’t again go very close…

The biggest issue is probably the quality of the opposition. I say ‘probably’ because we can’t be absolutely sure. However, there are 3 very progressive novices running in the race and it would be no surprise if at least one of them didn’t prove to be a step ahead of the handicapper.

That said, all 3 have to give Stow the best part of a stone – or more – and they have all been priced up at around half his odds.

With their abilities still unproven to a degree – but the market assuming the ability is there – the value call has to be a small play on Stow.

0.5pt win Stow 10/1

Sandown 2:10

I may have moved away from Newbury for the final tip of the day – but the race is just as tricky to solve…

That said, Sound Stage was horse that really caught my eye last time out – and I’m sure he is well handicapped, so he was always likely to be a tip…

Sound Stage first came to my attention when he finished runner up to Midnight Chase at Cheltenham, almost 2 years ago. He’s only run twice over fences since then: firstly when beaten by Buffalo Bob at Newbury early last season; and secondly when falling at the last in the race won by Glenns Boy, also at Newbury, last month.

Considering that was his first chase run for over a year, Sound Stage ran really well that day, travelling strongly until he weakened down the home straight.

Hopefully that run will have brought him to peak fitness (and the fall won’t have negatively affected his confidence) in which case, I think he has to go very close tomorrow.

There are plenty of potential dangers in the race, headed by the now Paul Nichools trained Martys Mission. He has the natural ability to be a big danger of a mark of just 113. However, he has been absent from the racecourse for over 12 months.

Loch Ba, Minella Theatre and Richards Sundance should all go well, but I’ve felt for a while that Sound Stage has the ability to be much better than a 125 rated animal – and hopefully tomorrow, he’ll prove that point.

0.75pt EW Sound Stage 16/1