18th February - Selection rationale

The volume and quality of horses running today is quite scary !

It has come about as a result of the recent cold snap, which has prevented a lot of horses from running for a few weeks; and the fact that we are now just under a month from the start of the Cheltenham festival.

Anything that harbours Cheltenham ambitions, and required a run prior to the festival, needs to be getting it in sharpish !

In order to find a winner, is therefore going to be important to identify the horses that are fit - and that aren’t being prepped for Cheltenham.

If you can find the right sub-set of runners, then the chances of hitting on a winner, are greatly improved.
Hopefully my selections for the day, all fall into that category…

Ascot 3:00

This is quite a weak race for a grade 1, with Riverside Theatre top rated at 165.

Furthermore, there are question marks over him (he’s not run since winning this race last year). He is unlikley to be founding wanting for fitness, but he does look beatable…

Second favourite is Kauto Stone and although very inexperienced, he has looked good on what we have seen of him so far. I’ll be surprised if he finishes out of the frame..

However, for the selection, I’ve opted for Little Josh.

He is lightly raced for a 10 year old but has shown a good level of form: most notably when winning last seasons Paddy Power chase.

That win saw his rating rise to 155 – just 10lb shy of Riverside Theatre – and, despite his age, I believe he still has scope to improve a little further…

Little Josh has only run 3 times since his Paddy Power victory and has been well beaten on each occasion.
However, last time out – on his seasonal debut for this campaign – he ran a cracker in the Cotswold chase at Cheltenham’s January meeting.

Over the 3m2f trip, he was going as well as anything until at the top of the hill.

He faded from that point – but he has never been a 3mile horse – and there is the possibility that he needed the run anyway (his first for a year).

If that has brought him on, they I can see him being very competitive back over this more suitable trip.

He may not quite have the class to win – but I could definitely see him getting a place – and if the favourites do under-perform, any thing is possible…

0.5pt EW Little Josh 20/1

Ascot 3:35

I don’t generally like tipping in these ultra-competitive handicaps – but I’m prepared to make an exception with this one…

Eastlake was a massive eye-catcher last time out in the Lanzarote hurdle at Kempton (it would appear that even Tom Segal noticed him ;) ). Coming round the home turn, he was absolutely cruising – but he emptied up the straight and eventually finished well beaten.

That was his first run in a big field handicap and I’m sure he will have learnt plenty from it. However, the way he travelled through the race suggested that he is well up to wining both in this grade –and off his current mark.

Today he gets to run over a couple of furlongs less, which I’m sure will help. His handicap mark was unchanged following the Lanzarote, which seems him get in today off 10st. Jonjo has also chosen to put up crack apprentice Maurice Linehan, which strikes me as hugely significant.

This guy is well worth his 7lb claim and I think this is the point in the season when the Jonjo stable will start to properly exploit it,

Obviously there is a danger, not just because of his profile – but also because of his connections, that he won’t perform today, so the bet has to be win only.

However, if he does perform, I get the feeling that he will go very close indeed…

1pt win Eastleak 16/1

Wincanton 2:00

This is a risky bet - but it has been stake accordingly…

I am tipping Handy Andy simply because I still believe that he is significantly better than his current handicap mark.

We were on him last time out, when he ran disappointingly at Warwick.

He seemed to race a little too freely that day – and just didn’t get home.

He has been dropped a couple of pounds in the handicap as a result of that run – and also has stable apprentice Steven Clements on today, reducing his weight by a further 7lb.

However, more importantly he is being dropped back in trip by 3 furlongs. That should help if he is again free today – and it is also closer to the distance over which he was spectacularly successful on his debut last season.

There is a real chance that he might bomb again today – but at the odds available, I think it is worth a small risk that he class he appeared to demonstrate last season, is still in tact…

0.5pt win Handy Andy 22/1

Wincanton 2:35

When I do stop tipping, after Cheltenham, I intend to have a final post, listing the horses that have provided us with most entertainment over the period…

Of course Fiendish Flame will be in there – but so too will Plein Pouvoir – and Atouchbetweenacara…

I think today is the third time I will have tipped him – and he’s not got within 40 lengths of the winner of the previous 2 occasions !!

However, last time in particular, he showed that the ability is still there – it just needs to be harnessed.

The fact is, that at his peak, Atouchbetweenacara would have carried this field. He was rated 148 just over 2 years ago – on the back of  a 24 length with of a mark of 129..

Today he is running off a mark of 117 – and has a 7lb claimer on board. That is a near 40lb drop (including a bit of artistic licence !) in a 24 month period…

Ofcourse, a drop in the weight is warranted to an extent – but I just get the feeling that this one has slipped a bit too far…

He is a 1 point tip today because conditions are not absolutely perfect (I would like to see him carrying top weight in a class 4 race, on good ground and after a 2 month break) – however, they are not too bad (aside from the race class) and I do like the fact that the blinkers, which were experimented with last time out, have been dispensed with today.

Hopefully he can bounce back to form today and make a mockery of his current rating…

If not, then maybe Carrickmines can capitalise…

He has never been as highly rated as Atouchbetwenacara, but he is still a fair tool – and was in good form over hurdles, earlier in the season.

He is back over fences today – but off a mark only 2lb higher than his last winning mark (when he absolutely bolted up at Kempton).

The trip may be a little on the short side for him – but he is a strong traveller, so I don’t think he will be done for toe.

It is a slight concern that he bled last time out – but hopefully there will be no repeat of that today.

Assuming that is the case, then he looks too big a price at 20/1…

1pt win Atouchbetweenacara 8/1

0.5pt win Carrickmines 20/1