19th February - Selection rationale

Regular readers won’t be surprised to hear that I thought long and hard before putting up Lucky Landing today…

He is a horse that I have already tipped twice – and he has let us down on both occasions.

However, on both occasions he travelled like a horse much better than his rating – and traded around even money IR, before finding nothing when put under pressure.

My theory on the horse (unsubstantiated, I might add !) is that he has had breathing difficulties. This was supported by the fact that he wore a tongue tie on his final 2 starts for Donald McCain.

His last run for McCain was in January and he next appeared in a ‘bumpers for jumpers’ race at Southwell last weekend, this time representing the Tony Coyle stable.

It was interesting to see that the tongue tie was no longer in place – suggesting that his new trainer either didn’t think there was a need – or that corrective surgery had taken place in the interim...

In the race itself, Lucky Landing again travelled well – but was passed as the runners entered the home straight. I am reasonably confident that the ‘old’ Lucky Landing would have just weakened at that point – however, the new’ Lucky Landing proceeded to battle back and briefly looked like he might get up.

The problem is, it is impossible to know what that form is worth. It looked a very weak bumper so the form could amount to very little.

However, the important thing for me, was that Lucky Landing didn’t simply capitulate when asked for an effort, as he has done in the past.

I have no doubt that he is well handicapped and has more than enough ability to win a race like today’s -  provided he has no physical issues,.

On balance, I figured it was worth taking a small risk that his problems have been resolved. If they have, I think he can win – and 10/1 will then seem like a very good price indeed !!

1pt win Lucky Landing 10/1