There were a few reasons why I started this blog, but one of them was in order to get into dialogue with others about race horses…
I try to write in an open, positive fashion to encourage this to happen – but for whatever reason, it hadn’t really – not until I decided to send out the tips via email, that is…
That move forced a lot of you to contact me – and some of you to open up a little more. That manifested itself in more comments on the blog – and some interesting exchanges with a few of you.
One such exchange got us our ante-post tip for the RSA chase, First Lieutenant (thanks for that Kevin) and another, caused me to keep a closer eye on a horse called Evella…
Evella last ran in the now infamous Toby Belch race at Leicester.
As I’m sure a lot of you will recall, I tipped Toby Belch at 14/1 – and he promptly went off 11/4 favourite !
One of our number (I’ll call him Sean – because that is his name – LOL !) was keen that I kept an eye on Evella in that race.
I was happy to do so, as she is a horse I know quite well from the past.
I didn’t expect her to run particularly well that day, as she seemed way out of form – and I felt she needed softer ground than she was going to get. However, I was wrong…
Evella ran a cracking race that day, leading to the third last – and even when passed by the eventual winner, she still looked like the second best horse in the race.
However, she weakened dramatically after the third last fence and eventually finished seventh, beaten 85 lengths.
As a result of that, she has been dropped 6lb in the handicap. She is also dropping back in trip by half a mile – which considering how well she was going on the home turn at Leicester, can only be considered a good thing.
I think there is also a possibility that she needed the Leicester run, as it was only her second run back after 9 months off the track.
However, the icing on the cake with Evella – and this is what makes her a particularly good bet tomorrow – is that she is the only front runner in the race.
Better than that, there isn’t even another horse in the race that is particularly bothered about racing prominently.
This should mean that she has an uncontested lead – and a well handicapped horse, running into form, with an uncontested lead, is a dangerous beast ! Trust me on that one !!
The reason I’ve ‘only’ had 1.5 points on her, is because the opposition is a bit stronger than I would have liked (I refer you back to the blog post from Sunday, on staking).
In fact, so much so, that I want a saver on one of her rivals !!
That horse is Nataani, who ran really well on his chasing debut last time out.
Bizarrely (and I do mean bizarrely) he has been dropped 8lb for that run – which makes him a huge danger.
I can see Evella leading all the way – but with one horse making relentless inroads into her lead during the last half mile.
That horse is Nataani – though whether he actually gets to her is a different matter.
I figured it was worth investing half a point on him just in case though ;)
I guess the really brave amongst you might consider a forecast – I’ve dabbled for the tiniest stake B365 would allow.
That said, I will be happy enough if either of them come home in fornt – though particularly so if it is Evella…
1.5pt win Evella 16/1
0.5pt win Nataani 8/1
No comments:
Post a Comment