6th March - Update

The third day on the trot with no tips and I’m sure a few of you are worrying that I’m maybe suffering from pre-Cheltenham nerves !!

In reality, there are 3 reasons for the lack of tips over the past few days:

Firstly (and foremost), the racing hasn’t really lent itself to tipping. There have been a few half decent races, but nothing I’ve really fancied grabbing hold of ;

Secondly, it seems to be getting harder to find the early ‘value’. The bookmakers are pricing up races, one at a time, with sizeable gaps between, and are incredibly sensitive to even the slightest support for a horse. I wanted to tip Phidippides today (he was ultimately a NR, so it was immaterial) but his price had been cut twice by B365, before 4 bookmakers had priced up the race. There would therefore be a danger, that if I had tipped him, the majority of you would have ended up taking well below the odds.

And thirdly; the presences of Cheltenham on the horizon, is proving a major distraction to me. I’m spending more and more time, watching replays of last season’s festival – and keys races from this season. It is not that easy to switch from the rarefied atmosphere of the festival to the relative dross served up at Hereford on a Monday afternoon (no disrespect intended to Hereford there !) 

I did actually toy with the idea of pulling the plug on the tipping following last Saturday afternoon. However, I figured that as there was a chance that something I wanted to tip might be running this week, I may as well just let things tick over and see what happened.

If something I really fancy, runs this week, then I’ll tip it – if that doesn’t happen , then we may get to the end of the week with no further tips…

Talking of Cheltenham, the ‘Special’ has already received a really good response.

I believe that I have replied, thanking everyone who has already subscribed (I’m not sure that all bank transfers come through instantly, so don’t worry if you’ve sent me a payment and not heard just yet).

I will send out an email on Sunday to everyone whom I’ve received a payment from  (I may even include the odd tip or two, as the 4 day decs will be through by then for most of the days) so if you don’t hear anything then and you believe you have subscribed, please shout !!

On the Cheltenham front, our ante-post selections received another body blow this evening, with the news that Peddlers Cross will be running in the Jewson novice chase rather than the Arkle…

I know that it is a risk with ante-post betting but this particular move doesn’t sit to comfortably with me.

Peddlers Cross has been targeted at the Arkle all season. Every interview with his trainer, Donald McCain, has confirmed this to be the case. Yet now, connections are running scared of Sprinter Sacre (and that is all that it is).

I could accept if the horse wasn’t ready for Cheltenham because of an injury – but to decline taking on a horse who still has a lot to prove, I find very disappointing.

In a way, this is a consequence of the 4 day festival. 5 years ago, there would have been no alternative race and Peddlers Cross would either have had to take on Sprinter Sacre – or bypass the festival. The fourth day – and the new races needed to fill it – has effectively diluted the Cheltenham experience. All of the contenders no longer have to take on each other to establish the best – it is possible to duck and dive, if that is your want…

Anyway, I’m a big fan of Peddlers Cross and I hope he does himself justice in the Jewson. I also hope that his connections get what they deserve for taking this path – and unfortunately, those 2 wishes are mutually exclusive!

With regard to the Arkle, then at least we still have the saver on Al Ferof – and I remain unconvinced that Spinter Sacre is home and horsed just yet !!

Finally, one of my readers sent me a link to the daily mail site, which is offering 2 for 1 entry to certain race meetings, this year.

I’m unlikely to be able to take advantage of it myself, but I said I would post it on the blog in case it was of use to any of my other readers.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/prmts/article-1344999/The-Daily-Mail-offer-2012.html

The Cheltenham Special

I have now posted details of how the ‘Cheltenham Special’ will work, in the Cheltenham festival section of the blog.

If you want to receive emails during the Cheltenham festival, you will need to subscribe to the Special, before next weekend.

I do not intend to put up any more ante-post advices before the festival begins.

Whilst most of the bookmakers are now offering NRNB on the various races, the odds have all been cut accordingly.

To be honest, I can’t see a lot of merit in going through each race, trying to figure out what might run where and the various implications of such – I’d rather just wait until the final declarations are known and make a call on the most likely winner/value selections at that time.

There is a danger that we will miss out by a point or two on a few selections – but equally, we may gain a point or two on others (some prices will doubtless ease, when the final declarations are made).

The other big advantage of not getting involved now, is that we will know the precise make up of a race when we play – plus have a better idea of ground conditions. Knowing these, is worth sacrificing a potential small edge for (particularly as all the prices are going to be picked over to a ridiculous extent, during the next week).

If you do choose to subscribe to the Special, please bear in mind how much you are paying – and stake any bets accordingly..!

The cost will work out at £2:50 a day – by all means follow the tips (hopefully they will show a profit), but don’t go crazy. As with the blog, my primary objective will be to inform and entertain.

Anyone who chooses to stake tens of pounds on the selections, will get little sympathy from me if it all goes pear shape and they end the festival with heavy losses. You have been warned !!!

3rd March - Race reviews

No joy again today – and I’m starting to feel like I could just do with a slice of luck…

Not that I’m saying I’m getting bad luck particularly – I’m just not getting any good luck…

I managed to nominate the winners of both of today’ races as the main dangers to the tips. Obviously that is little consolation to anyone – but it does at least demonstrate that I’m am nearer to the mark, than might appear to be the case if you are just backing the tips !!

I was particularly disappointed by the run of Kangaroo Court, because I really fancied him today.

However, the other jockeys gifted the favourite Corkage, an uncontested lead – and more than that, he was just about the only horse in the race that settled.

Needless to say, he had loads left in the tank when he was challenged and just quickened clear of his toiling rivals.

The victory doubtless flatters him (as he had the run of the race) and he might struggle of his revised mark.

Kangaroo Court should probably be given another chance – but his next run is likely to be after I’ve finish tipping…

At Newbury, Wogan travelled fine until he reached the water jump at the end of the first circuit. He then came under pressure and was quickly a spent force.

Somewhat ironically, there was rain at Newbury this morning and it seemed to have got into the ground (we needed it yesterday for Plein Pouvoir). Give underfoot certainly wouldn’t have suited Wogan – but whether that was the issue, or some physical problem, I don’t honestly know.

Either way, I wouldn’t be in a rush to back him next time out…

3rd March - Selection rationale

It’s another relatively quiet Saturday on the racing front – so much so, that you can almost sense the impending presence of the Cheltenham festival…

There are 3 domestic NH cards – but only 2 of them were of any interest to me.

I’ve gone for a single selection at both Doncaster and at Newbury.

I toyed with a third (and maybe even fourth) selection at Newbury, but the race I was considering was Newbury’s Greatwood Gold cup, and to be honest, I think any one of at least half a dozen could win it. Those of you who subscribe to other tipsters will doubtless receive a variety of selections for the race – and I probably couldn't narrow them down much for you.

It seems silly tackling such a competitive race when there are easier options available…

Doncaster 2:20

I am really keen on Kangaroo Court tomorrow – and I apologise to those of you who were unable to get on at the suggested 9/2.

Whilst there are theoretical benefits to tipping early in the evening – it also presents a few moral dilemmas (if you are that way inclined !!).

I spotted Kangaroo Court this afternoon when I was looking through the declarations  and whilst I consider him the most likely winner of the race, I was optimistic that he might be missed, due to his uninspiring recent form figures….

Sure enough, B365 opened up with him at 9/2 – which I thought was a most acceptable price (he would be around 3/1 on my tissue). However, I don’t really feel I can send out tips until at least 3 bookmakers (preferably 4) have priced up – ideally with 2 offering an acceptable price.

However, before a fourth bookmaker had priced the race, B365 cut Kangaroo Court to 7/2. Moments later, Coral put him up at 9/2, so I was forced to issue the tip…

I think 9/2 is a very good price – I actually think 7/2 is fair and would have considered a point on him at those odds…

Kangaroo Court was a very decent novice hurdler, who burst onto the scene with a scintillating wide margin victory at Doncaster. In his second hurdle race, he split Karabak and Somersby at Ascot, before going on to run midfield in the Supreme Novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.

It was expected that he would make an even better chaser, but after a promising start, things fell apart in that sphere and he was returned to hurdles last March.

He had 3 runs over hurdles last spring, improving with each, before being put away. 

He was next sighted, winning a flat maiden race at Lingfield in January. His SP that day was 14/1, so it would appear that he was expected to need the run.

That wasn’t the case next time out (his most recent run), when he was sent off 11/10 fav in one of the ‘bumpers for jumpers’ races run at Kempton. However, he was given too much to do that day and could only finish fifth.

He returns to hurdles tomorrow, off a mark of 134 – which looks very reasonable. He only has 6 opponents to beat – and whilst a couple of them look fair sorts, only Allow Me looks could be considered a relatively unknown quantity.

I actually think that Corkage will provide Kangaroo Court with his stiffest test tomorrow. He has been running very well lately – with his last run probably his best.

However, he had gone up a stone in the handicap over the past month or so, and has been involved in quite a few battles. He’s not overly difficult to oppose…

There is a slight question mark over the trip for Kangaroo Court, but his one previous attempt at it, suggested that it should be within his compass. The ground will be absolutely fine for him (he needs it on the quick side) and it strikes me as very significant that Emma Lavelle and her new stable jockey Noel Fehily, go to Doncaster for just the one ride (particularly as Lavelle has a couple of runners at Newbury).

All in all, Kangaroo Court looks a very solid selection and I am optimistic that he can provide us with an overdue success.

2pt win Kangaroo Court 9/2

Newbury 2:40

I thought that Wogan ran a really good race at Doncaster last week behind Faasel and if he can build on that, he really should go close tomorrow.

Good ground is key to Wogan and I’m hoping that it wasn’t just a coincidence that his return to form last week coincided with him running on better ground for the first time this season. It also coincided with him running in cheek pieces for the first time – and they are retained tomorrow.

Wogan will actually be running from 3lb out of the handicap tomorrow, but even with his ‘over-weight;’ he will be running of a mark over a stone less than he was competing from, last spring. That is quite a drop in the handicap for a couple of poor runs, which came after a lengthy absence and on unsuitable ground.

It is true that as a 12 year old, he may be in decline, but on the evidence of his last run, the handicapper may have been a little too enthusiastic in reducing his rating so drastically.

It strikes me as quite interesting, that Andrew Tinkler is on board tomorrow. He was Wogan’s regular partner when he was in training with Nicky Henderson, but he’s not partnered him since his transfer to Tom Symonds’ yard. Employing the services of a jockey who is familiar with him, seems a sensible move.

Looking through his opponents, it strikes me that most of them are either: badly out of form; likely to be using this race as a spring board to big end of season targets; or unlikely to be suited by tomorrow’s quick conditions.

The most obvious exception to this is Marufu – and I would see him as the main danger. That said, I could also see Hello Bud running a big race, despite being 14 years old !!

On balance however, I think Wogan is worth a risk. He is in good form; will have conditions to suit and was available at a generous looking 14/1.

1pt win Wogan 14/1

2nd March - Race reviews

I think that today just has to go down as one of those days…

There may have been 2 tips (more on them in a moment) – but it was the performance of the ‘mention’ that grabbed all the headlines…

Lucky Landing was the mention – not that he was mentioned in a particularly positive fashion – but he was mentioned alright !

Regular readers of the blog, will know that I’m a big fan of the horse – and I fancied him quite strongly when he ran at Bangor on Wednesday.

He ran a reasonable race that day, but weakened late on – and apparently bled from the nose (this is something he has done before – at Catterick, if memory serves).

I was therefore shocked to see him declared to run again, just 48 hours later – and in truth, even more surprised when he actually took up that engagement…

But it gets better, Lucky Landing was only facing 3 rivals today – but 2 of them were rated 30lb superior to him (prior to him being re-assessed).

So, we had a horse running 2 days after he bled, against rivals rated over 2 stone superior to him – absolutely crazy, if you ask me – and the result, he hacks up !

Now the cynical amongst you might think that connections have landed a right touch – and I guess you might be right. However, if they did, the certainly kept it a secret…

The horse was around 20 on BF this morning – and went off around 34 (so 33/1). He also traded at over 100 IR quite early.

Someone might have made a lot of money on him – but if they did so, they did it quite discreetly…

Ofcourse, the horse has now shot his handicap mark completely (he will be raised at least a stone for winning today) – and that doesn’t really add up either – certainly not if connections were trying to do something crafty with him.

I guess in truth, I simply don’t know what was going on. At the end of the day, they are not machines – and the horse clearly has bundles of ability. There may have been something going on – but then again, there may not…

I know that one or two of you kept the faith with him, which was good to read.

I must admit that I had a few quid on him myself: part to trade IR – and part so that I didn’t feel completely gutted if he won !

I’ve been playing this game for long enough to know that you have to expect the unexpected. And if the unexpected makes no sense whatsoever, it is that much more likely to occur !!

Anyway, after all that on the mention – a few words on the tips…! 

Marodima ran an honest enough race from the front. He went clear early and then Tom O’Brien tried to get a breather into him.

I think he did that quite well, as he kept on battling. However he had no answer to the challenges of Lord Singer and Niceonefrankie.

In truth. That is probably as good as he is, nowadays…

Later on the card, Plein Pouvoir ran almost exactly as I feared he would…

He was always struggling to go the pace on the quicker ground and could only plod on up the straight.

He will doubtless be dropped a couple more pounds in the handicap for this run – which will make him even more of a certainty if he gets his conditions.

But as those conditions involve bottom less ground – and with spring rapidly approaching, he may just end up as the one that got away this winter…

2nd March - Selection rationale

In different circumstances, we could have been looking at a maximum bet tomorrow – and when I say maximum, I mean 5 points win !!

If the ground was bottomless at Newbury, I really would be that confident, that Plein Pouvoir would score in the 4:55 race.

Forget value, he would be a near certainty – and I would be prepared to take any price down to 2/1 – never mind the 9/1 on offer !!
However, the ground is anything but heavy – and as ground is just about the most important variable when assessing a race (despite what Tom Segal might claim ; )  ) he has gone from a maximum bet to a marginal one…

I feel for Venetia Williams a little (though god knows why, considering how her horses run when I tip them !). She’s tried and tried to find a suitable race for Plein Pouvoir (and I’ve been looking with her !) – but there just hasn’t been one.

And when one finally comes along, the ground has changed from heavy to good – and Plein’s chances of success have probably gone with it.

If I’m honest, I think he will get outspeeded on tomorrow’s quicker ground. However, everything – and I mean everything – else, is right for him to run a huge race…

The distance is spot on; the course is absolutely fine; Aiden Coleman is on board – and most importantly, he is carrying top weight against inferior rivals (the weight is unimportant to Plein – he is a massive horse). If only the ground hadn’t gone against him L

Furthermore, whilst the opposition looks OK – it doesn’t look outstanding.

On the ground, Roi de Rose will be a danger (I wouldn’t be worried about him of heavy) – though the biggest danger by far, looks to be the unexposed Ballyalia man.

On heavy, I think he would have to be some horse to beat Plein – or good, who knows…

So there you go – a half hearted 1pt bet !

Hopefully Plein will prove me wrong (or maybe right !) and hack up regardless. If he does, we will be able to cheer – and bemoan what might have been. If he gets beaten, then we can just hope that we get one more shot at heavy ground before the winter is out – because in heavy ground and a class 4 race, Plein Pouvoir would be the nearest thing you would get to a racing certainty !!!

1pt win Plein Pouvoir 9/1

Unlike Plein Pouvoir, Marodima will have no problem with tomorrow’s quick ground – and I honestly think he will take the world of catching…

He is going to be under-estimated tomorrow, because people will think that he has peaked for the season.

He hacked up at Fontwell; won grittily at Warwick and then was beaten at Wincanton.

Common consensus will be that the handicapper has got to him – common consensus, but not mine ;)

That Huntingdon race was over a 2m4f trip – but I believe that Marodima is best over the minimum. He won over 2m4f at Fontwell – but the race was over at half way, he was so far clear. He could have won over 4 miles that day !

He showed no shortage of pace over 2 miles at Warwick – and it was the same last time out at Wincanton.

He led the field a merry dance and had most of his rivals in trouble rounding the home turn. He was challenged at that point and whilst he tried to find some reserves, he had nothing left.

He was ultimately beaten a long way that day, but the horse that beat him was Hunt Ball. He was racing off a mark off 117 at Huntingdon – but is now rated 142. Marodima was trying to fend off a progressive rival who had 25lb in hand of his handicap mark…

His rivals tomorrow are reasonable enough – but I don’t see anything outstanding. I also don’t see any other competition for the lead (not that it would really matter !).

Consequently, I expect Marodima to be able to stride on in an uncontested lead, and hopefully his jockey will keep enough in reserve to enable him to get home up the long Newbury straight.

He’s shown himself competitive in the past, off a mark at least 10lb higher than tomorrows – and he is coming into tomorrow’s race in top form (despite what anyone might try to tell you !). I am sure he will run a really big race – and hopefully, there won’t be any progressive upstarts (particularly from the Venetia Williams stable) to ruin the day…

2pt win Marodima 8/1

On final comment:

I’m genuinely shocked to see Lucky Landing declared to run again at Doncaster tomorrow.

The horse had a really tough race yesterday – and apparently bled from his nose.

I’m no veterinary expert, so maybe I’m wrong – but I can’t help feeling that a horse who bled yesterday (and therefore under went extreme stress) shouldn’t be asked to run again tomorrow.

Hopefully he will be pulled out in the morning – or someone will be able to correct me and say there is no problem running him…

1st March - Race review

Well, we might be treading water on the P&L at the moment – but you can’t say that my tips don’t provide entertainment !!

Once again I managed to latch on to the steamer of the day – but alas, once again, it proved to no avail…

The problem is, what I am primarily trying to do, is identify ‘value’ in the early bird markets.

The belief is, that if you do manage to identify ‘value’ (and that can probably be defined by, significantly beating SP), then the profits should take care of themselves…

I could probably do exactly the same thing at other times: first thing in the morning; lunchtime and just before the off – but my personal circumstances dictate that the evening before, is when I’ve got the time available to go looking.

Unfortunately, at the moment, the profits aren’t really taking care of themselves – but I guess little damage is being done – and hopefully, you are all getting a good read and a little excitement !!

In the race itself, Maraafeq raced with little enthusiasm, running and jumping in a laboured fashion. It was hoped that the cheek-pieces he was wearing, would spark him into life, but this proved not to be he case.
Despite that, he was still in with half a chance turning for home. However, he weakened up the straight and ultimately finished well beaten.

I don’t expect I’ll be following him in the immediate future…

The big eye-catcher of the race was Rackham Lerouge. He loomed up, at the end of the back straight, looking like he was going to win hard held. However, he fell in a hole when the pressure was applied.

There are 2 ways of looking at his performance: He could be interesting dropped back half a mile; or he has a problem (breathing, bleeding etc.) that is prevented him going through with his effort.

One to keep an eye on though, I think…