Before I created this closing post, I re-read my very first post – the ‘Introduction’ from the end of October…
I don’t know how many of you were around at that point in time, but whether you were or not, I think it is worth a read before you go any further…
Now we are all on the same footing !!
I created this blog, with the intention of demonstrating that I could identify ricks in the early bird prices issued by the bookmakers. The hope/belief was that if I could do this accurately then it should be possible to make money over a period of time, simply by backing these horses…
4 months on, and I think I have demonstrated pretty conclusively that I can spot ricks – and also that money can be made by this method.
I’ll start this review of this project, with the headline figures from the 4 months (I’ve excluded the Cheltenham festival because it was a one-off, in which different rules applied).
148 tips in 140 races (I tipped 2 horses in a race 6 times – plus 1 F/C and 1 double)
52pts profit (so an ROI of 33%)
Ultimately, these are the only numbers that matter…
Whilst 52pts profit on 159.25pt staked is a perfectly creditable performance, I have to say it is a little below where I had hoped…
Still, I set my minimum requirement when I began, at 50pts profit on 300pts staked – so achieving the profit target with only half the staking, has to be viewed positively…
Looking at the 140 races in a little more detail, they yielded the following:
1st – 14
2nd – 20
3rd – 12
4th – 12
Therefore, 34 selections finished first or second (24%) and 58 finished place (41%).
The first number is almost exactly where I want it to be, which is very pleasing. The second number is a little short of target, but within acceptable limits.
It’s obviously slightly irritating to see that so many more selections finished second that first – but that is one of those fine lines which I forever seem to be on the wrong side of…
The other measure that I’ve been keen to push during the period, has been the performance of price advised against BSP.
You will have noticed in the introductory post, that the object of this ‘project’ was to identify pricing ricks (ie. effectively beat SP). The hope was simply that if you can consistently do that, the profits will follow (as SP is as good an indicator of success, as you can get).
If, over the 4 months, you had simply backed every TVB selection at advised price, to advised stake – and then layed off your potential profit at BSP, you would have made 47.3pts profit. This is a ROI of 30% - which itself, is highly creditable…
So, there are all the key facts about the 4 months tipping – but here are a few more, just for your entertainment/amusement ;)
P&L by day of the week:
Mon: -10.5pts (0 from 12)
Tue: -5pts (1 from 15)
Wed: -11.5pts (0 from 10)
Thur: 16.5pts (3 from 16)
Fri: -1pt (1 from 24)
Sat: 24pts (9 from 58)
Sun: 40pts (3 from 11)
Which suggests that I am clearly a weekend tipster ! (I know someone who be pleased to read that ;) )
I tipped a number of horses, multiple times…
Here is the top of that particular chart:
Pocket Aces -4.5pts
Frontier Dancer +25pts
Lucky Landing +6pts
Plein Pouvoir -3.5pts
Despite this, I still managed to miss Sophonie’s victory – and another one by Lucky Landing !!
In terms of trainers, as I mentioned once or twice, Venetia Williams has been removed from my Christmas card list ! I tipped a horse trained by her 13 times – and managed to lose 13pts in the process !
Conversely, 10 tips of horses trained by Philip Hobbs, yielded 3 winners and a profit of 20pts (and that doesn’t include Balthazar King at the festival !).
So that is just about it in terms of numbers…
In terms of people, then I would like to thank you all for ‘tuning in’ every day.
If there was an award for ‘best viewer’ then it would undoubtedly be handed out to Ciaran (Villa Viper), who’s support – particularly during the dark days of December - was very much appreciated…
I would also like to single out Michael and Roy for special thanks. Neither name will mean much to blog readers – but these 2 guys sit behind the scenes, helping me keep sane on a daily basis…
The blog has enabled me to ‘meet’ a number of other guys, whom I have enjoyed ‘chatting’ with over the past few months: Steve, Dan, Jim, Kevin, Peter and Ian to name just half a dozen (and there have been a fair few more)…
Finding all these people has been a real bonus of creating the blog. And then there was Marvin – dear Marvin – I wonder whose life he is enriching now…?!
With regard to the future, then my plans are fluid…
I’ll continue to watch and bet on the racing (as I always have done !) – but I will also give some attention to the things I’ve been neglecting over the past few months.
At the moment, my intention would be to return late autumn, with a new blog – very much TVB – though possibly not ‘early bird’...
Towards the end of this project, I was getting a little frustrated with the lack of early bird opportunities that presented themselves. I tried, half heartedly, to create theoretical ‘tissues’ for one or two races, which people could then use to back (or even lay !) horses prior to the off, once particular odds had been reached. I may choose to build on that experiment (but then again, I may not !)…
Whatever, I have email addresses for everyone I sent the tips to – and I promise I will make contact with you all, well in advance of any new venture.
If anyone wants to contact me in the meantime, you have my email address, so please feel free.
For now though, I am going to sign off.
It’s been a heck of a journey – it’s been fun – it’s been emotional.
Thanks for the support !