3rd March - Selection rationale

It’s another relatively quiet Saturday on the racing front – so much so, that you can almost sense the impending presence of the Cheltenham festival…

There are 3 domestic NH cards – but only 2 of them were of any interest to me.

I’ve gone for a single selection at both Doncaster and at Newbury.

I toyed with a third (and maybe even fourth) selection at Newbury, but the race I was considering was Newbury’s Greatwood Gold cup, and to be honest, I think any one of at least half a dozen could win it. Those of you who subscribe to other tipsters will doubtless receive a variety of selections for the race – and I probably couldn't narrow them down much for you.

It seems silly tackling such a competitive race when there are easier options available…

Doncaster 2:20

I am really keen on Kangaroo Court tomorrow – and I apologise to those of you who were unable to get on at the suggested 9/2.

Whilst there are theoretical benefits to tipping early in the evening – it also presents a few moral dilemmas (if you are that way inclined !!).

I spotted Kangaroo Court this afternoon when I was looking through the declarations  and whilst I consider him the most likely winner of the race, I was optimistic that he might be missed, due to his uninspiring recent form figures….

Sure enough, B365 opened up with him at 9/2 – which I thought was a most acceptable price (he would be around 3/1 on my tissue). However, I don’t really feel I can send out tips until at least 3 bookmakers (preferably 4) have priced up – ideally with 2 offering an acceptable price.

However, before a fourth bookmaker had priced the race, B365 cut Kangaroo Court to 7/2. Moments later, Coral put him up at 9/2, so I was forced to issue the tip…

I think 9/2 is a very good price – I actually think 7/2 is fair and would have considered a point on him at those odds…

Kangaroo Court was a very decent novice hurdler, who burst onto the scene with a scintillating wide margin victory at Doncaster. In his second hurdle race, he split Karabak and Somersby at Ascot, before going on to run midfield in the Supreme Novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.

It was expected that he would make an even better chaser, but after a promising start, things fell apart in that sphere and he was returned to hurdles last March.

He had 3 runs over hurdles last spring, improving with each, before being put away. 

He was next sighted, winning a flat maiden race at Lingfield in January. His SP that day was 14/1, so it would appear that he was expected to need the run.

That wasn’t the case next time out (his most recent run), when he was sent off 11/10 fav in one of the ‘bumpers for jumpers’ races run at Kempton. However, he was given too much to do that day and could only finish fifth.

He returns to hurdles tomorrow, off a mark of 134 – which looks very reasonable. He only has 6 opponents to beat – and whilst a couple of them look fair sorts, only Allow Me looks could be considered a relatively unknown quantity.

I actually think that Corkage will provide Kangaroo Court with his stiffest test tomorrow. He has been running very well lately – with his last run probably his best.

However, he had gone up a stone in the handicap over the past month or so, and has been involved in quite a few battles. He’s not overly difficult to oppose…

There is a slight question mark over the trip for Kangaroo Court, but his one previous attempt at it, suggested that it should be within his compass. The ground will be absolutely fine for him (he needs it on the quick side) and it strikes me as very significant that Emma Lavelle and her new stable jockey Noel Fehily, go to Doncaster for just the one ride (particularly as Lavelle has a couple of runners at Newbury).

All in all, Kangaroo Court looks a very solid selection and I am optimistic that he can provide us with an overdue success.

2pt win Kangaroo Court 9/2

Newbury 2:40

I thought that Wogan ran a really good race at Doncaster last week behind Faasel and if he can build on that, he really should go close tomorrow.

Good ground is key to Wogan and I’m hoping that it wasn’t just a coincidence that his return to form last week coincided with him running on better ground for the first time this season. It also coincided with him running in cheek pieces for the first time – and they are retained tomorrow.

Wogan will actually be running from 3lb out of the handicap tomorrow, but even with his ‘over-weight;’ he will be running of a mark over a stone less than he was competing from, last spring. That is quite a drop in the handicap for a couple of poor runs, which came after a lengthy absence and on unsuitable ground.

It is true that as a 12 year old, he may be in decline, but on the evidence of his last run, the handicapper may have been a little too enthusiastic in reducing his rating so drastically.

It strikes me as quite interesting, that Andrew Tinkler is on board tomorrow. He was Wogan’s regular partner when he was in training with Nicky Henderson, but he’s not partnered him since his transfer to Tom Symonds’ yard. Employing the services of a jockey who is familiar with him, seems a sensible move.

Looking through his opponents, it strikes me that most of them are either: badly out of form; likely to be using this race as a spring board to big end of season targets; or unlikely to be suited by tomorrow’s quick conditions.

The most obvious exception to this is Marufu – and I would see him as the main danger. That said, I could also see Hello Bud running a big race, despite being 14 years old !!

On balance however, I think Wogan is worth a risk. He is in good form; will have conditions to suit and was available at a generous looking 14/1.

1pt win Wogan 14/1