In different circumstances, we could have been looking at a maximum bet tomorrow – and when I say maximum, I mean 5 points win !!
If the ground was bottomless at Newbury, I really would be that confident, that Plein Pouvoir would score in the 4:55 race.
Forget value, he would be a near certainty – and I would be prepared to take any price down to 2/1 – never mind the 9/1 on offer !!
However, the ground is anything but heavy – and as ground is just about the most important variable when assessing a race (despite what Tom Segal might claim ; ) ) he has gone from a maximum bet to a marginal one…
However, the ground is anything but heavy – and as ground is just about the most important variable when assessing a race (despite what Tom Segal might claim ; ) ) he has gone from a maximum bet to a marginal one…
I feel for Venetia Williams a little (though god knows why, considering how her horses run when I tip them !). She’s tried and tried to find a suitable race for Plein Pouvoir (and I’ve been looking with her !) – but there just hasn’t been one.
And when one finally comes along, the ground has changed from heavy to good – and Plein’s chances of success have probably gone with it.
If I’m honest, I think he will get outspeeded on tomorrow’s quicker ground. However, everything – and I mean everything – else, is right for him to run a huge race…
The distance is spot on; the course is absolutely fine; Aiden Coleman is on board – and most importantly, he is carrying top weight against inferior rivals (the weight is unimportant to Plein – he is a massive horse). If only the ground hadn’t gone against him L
Furthermore, whilst the opposition looks OK – it doesn’t look outstanding.
On the ground, Roi de Rose will be a danger (I wouldn’t be worried about him of heavy) – though the biggest danger by far, looks to be the unexposed Ballyalia man.
On heavy, I think he would have to be some horse to beat Plein – or good, who knows…
So there you go – a half hearted 1pt bet !
Hopefully Plein will prove me wrong (or maybe right !) and hack up regardless. If he does, we will be able to cheer – and bemoan what might have been. If he gets beaten, then we can just hope that we get one more shot at heavy ground before the winter is out – because in heavy ground and a class 4 race, Plein Pouvoir would be the nearest thing you would get to a racing certainty !!!
1pt win Plein Pouvoir 9/1
Unlike Plein Pouvoir, Marodima will have no problem with tomorrow’s quick ground – and I honestly think he will take the world of catching…
He is going to be under-estimated tomorrow, because people will think that he has peaked for the season.
He hacked up at Fontwell; won grittily at Warwick and then was beaten at Wincanton.
Common consensus will be that the handicapper has got to him – common consensus, but not mine ;)
That Huntingdon race was over a 2m4f trip – but I believe that Marodima is best over the minimum. He won over 2m4f at Fontwell – but the race was over at half way, he was so far clear. He could have won over 4 miles that day !
He showed no shortage of pace over 2 miles at Warwick – and it was the same last time out at Wincanton.
He led the field a merry dance and had most of his rivals in trouble rounding the home turn. He was challenged at that point and whilst he tried to find some reserves, he had nothing left.
He was ultimately beaten a long way that day, but the horse that beat him was Hunt Ball. He was racing off a mark off 117 at Huntingdon – but is now rated 142. Marodima was trying to fend off a progressive rival who had 25lb in hand of his handicap mark…
His rivals tomorrow are reasonable enough – but I don’t see anything outstanding. I also don’t see any other competition for the lead (not that it would really matter !).
Consequently, I expect Marodima to be able to stride on in an uncontested lead, and hopefully his jockey will keep enough in reserve to enable him to get home up the long Newbury straight.
He’s shown himself competitive in the past, off a mark at least 10lb higher than tomorrows – and he is coming into tomorrow’s race in top form (despite what anyone might try to tell you !). I am sure he will run a really big race – and hopefully, there won’t be any progressive upstarts (particularly from the Venetia Williams stable) to ruin the day…
2pt win Marodima 8/1
On final comment:
I’m genuinely shocked to see Lucky Landing declared to run again at Doncaster tomorrow.
The horse had a really tough race yesterday – and apparently bled from his nose.
I’m no veterinary expert, so maybe I’m wrong – but I can’t help feeling that a horse who bled yesterday (and therefore under went extreme stress) shouldn’t be asked to run again tomorrow.
Hopefully he will be pulled out in the morning – or someone will be able to correct me and say there is no problem running him…
Best of luck tomorrow mate, lets hope marodima is a carbon copy of mark the book! An ew double is in order me thinks! :)
ReplyDeleteWin only double for me Ciaran ;)
ReplyDeleteI'll be happy with just the one winner tbh. I think Marodima has a great chance - and expect him to be under-estimated...
Plein is a little more difficult for me to be objective about ! I've waited all winter for tomorrow - and the ground has gone :( He might still be up to the task - but he would have been a near certainty on heavy ground (and you don't get many of those per season).
It would be nice to get back into the black - but as always, whatever will be, will be...
There was obviously no problem running him, perhaps the stable knew more than we did.
ReplyDeleteLes
It's difficult not to be a little cynical about it, I agree.
ReplyDeleteThe trouble is, we'll never know for sure. I guess that's the problem with being sat on the outside, trying to second guess what is going on...