Cheltenham Special - Update

When I looked at tomorrow’s declarations, earlier today, I thought there was a distinct possibility that I would have a tip…

The race I was targeting was the novice handicap chase that will be run at Carlisle at 3:15.

The race doesn’t have a lot of depth – and I was optimistic that Rich Lord would be under-estimated by the odds compilers….

I expected them to put in Ballyoliver as favourite – around the 5/2 mark – with Rich Lord somewhere between 6/1 and 8/1…

The opening shows went up and sure enough Ballyoliver was favourite – but at 7/2; whilst Rich Lord was 9/2 at best…

This has happened a few times lately – so what should I do ?

In theory, Ballyoliver is ‘value’ at 7/2 – but he’s not the one I wanted to tip.

Similarly, Rich Lord is not value at 9/2 – but I quite fancy him…

At the end of the day, I decided not to tip. I didn’t feel that strongly about the race, so it wasn’t a difficult decision to make. However, I do think it illustrates quite nicely the dilemma I’ve been facing on a regular basis over the past month or so.

Of course, if Rich Lord reaches 6/1 tomorrow (not to mention 8/1) – and I suspect he might – then you all know what to do ;)

Anyway, I digress !!

The main purpose of this post, is to outline a change in the way the Cheltenham special will work…

When I posted details of the special on Saturday, I said that I would only tip the afternoon/evening before race days.

However, I read today, that at last years festival, 23 out of the 27 winners were available at bigger prices (often significantly bigger) the week before.

As the majority of prices are now being offer NRNB (Non-Runner – No Bet) – with the BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed) concession also available with those that offer it, it does seem a bit silly to wait until the day before…

Of course, as I said on Saturday, prices weren’t the only reason I wasn’t going to tip earlier – neither the final field or the exact going are known a week in advance.

However, once the 5 day declaration are out, we’ve got a pretty good idea of the final field in most of the races (say 75% accuracy) and similarly, we now have a pretty good idea of what the ground will be like next week (on the soft side of good initially – probably getting a little quicker as the week goes on).

I’ve spent a lot of time over the past few days, ploughing through the fields for next week and watching replays of various races. I have therefore got a reasonable idea of what I’m going to tip, in around half of the races.

On balance, I therefore think it makes sense for me to issue some of the tips before the overnight stage.

I won’t issue any until the 5 day decs are out – and I will still issue some the day/evening before racing (savers, tops ups and tips in races where there is uncertainty now – or where things have changed significantly) – but I will issue some in advance, and this will start tomorrow evening…

Therefore, it is important that if you have not already subscribed – and you intend to do so – that you either do it before tomorrow evening or at least let me know that is your intention so that I can add you to the distribution list.

Similarly if you have already subscribed, you need to be tuned in for tips from tomorrow evening onwards.

In truth, I don’t expect the prices to shift dramatically over the next few days – and I doubt very much that me issuing will have an impact on the markets.

However, the price of one potential selection has already been cut from 33/1 to 25/1 – and I don’t want that happening on too many more…!
TVB