It seems a long time since I last wrote up the rationale for a tip…
They say that a week is a long time in politics, well it is certainly a long time in race horse tipping !
Anyway, domestic NH racing looks like it will be back tomorrow – and whilst it will not be with the bang that Newbury would doubtless have provided, the card at Mussleburgh is quite acceptable.
I’ve decided to ease back into things with just a couple of small tips.
I could easily have tipped a couple more – but I missed the price on one, and the other is too short (even though I think it will hack up !)
So, without further ado, here is the rationale behind February’s first 2 tips…!
Mussleburgh 3:10
This is a very competitive race – and it is also likely to be something of a burn up !
Mussleburgh is a notoriously quick track – and there are also 4 or 5 runners in the race, who like to make the pace. As a result, the action is likely to be fast and furious !
With such competition for the lead, I think it makes sense to look for a horse who tends to be more patiently ridden (if there is a battle for the lead, a finisher should be able to take advantage).
Tara Royal is such a horse and I think he has a fair chance of getting involved where it counts.
He was shaping up into a decent novice chaser at the beginning of last season; finishing runner up to Divers, Wishful Thinking and Stagecoach Pearl (all 3 are now rated much higher than he is). His season was cut short however and he didn’t run from last November until this December.
Despite that absence, he was sent off a 4/1 shot on his seasonal debut, for a hot 2mile chase at Ascot. Unfortunately, he fell that day (when moving well) – and jumping has been a bit of an issue for him…
However, it has improved in his last 3 outings – and the fences at Mussleburgh are relatively soft.
In his penultimate run at Warwick , he finished third to Marodima, 5 lengths behind the runner-up, Gracchus. He meets that horse on 6lb better terms tomorrow, which should be enough to turn the tables – and yet is available at almost double the price…
One horse I will be keeping an eye on tomorrow, is Ultimate. In different circumstances, I could quite fancy him for the race but I believe he is being aimed at the Grand Annual chase at the festival. As thing stands, he will get into that race with a very low weight. If he were to win tomorrow, his rating would rise – and so his chances of winning the Grand Annual would reduce.
I expect to see him run a fair race tomorrow – but to weaken up the home straight. If that scenario does materialise, then there is a chance that we could be looking at one of our future Cheltenham ante-post bets ;)
0.5pt EW Tara Royal 16/1
Mussleburgh 3:45
Although there is a runner less than in the previous race, if anything, this is even more competitive !
You really couldn’t write off any of the runners with confidence, so it is a question of finding one with a chance better than the odds imply - and hopefully Shadows Lengthen falls into that category...
He had been progressing nicely this season, following a fair run at Bangor with a good win at Doncaster. However, he was then beaten at Catterick – though that was over 2m4f and the hope is that dropping him back to 2miles will see him continue with his earlier progression…
Koup De Kanon is the other horse in the race, that really interests me – and anyone who managed to secure some of the 10/1 offered early by Boylesports, has got themselves a decent bet.
He ran well in the Cheltenham race won by Module, seeming not quite to get home that day. On this easier course, he has to be a big danger, if he runs to the same level of form.
1pt win Shadows Lengthen 12/1
Just a few quick words on the ones that got away (or, more accurately, the ones I chose not to tip tomorrow !).
In the 2:45 race, I was tempted by both Moonlight Drive and Devotion to Duty (who I tipped when the race was originally scheduled to be run, last Sunday).
However, I missed the 8/1 available early on the former – and 6/1 is quite tight for a horse who comes with significant risks. Similarly, the 16/1 on Devotion to Duty, soon became a general 12/1, which didn’t look sufficiently attractive for a horse whom I feel has a ‘fair’ chance.
The other horse that I haven’t tipped tomorrow (!), is Cape Dutch, who runs in the finale on the card.
The reason for this, is simply the price. I don’t tip (or back) 5/2 shots – even if I think they should be much shorter !
If you do like to play at that end of the market, then I suspect he is a good bet – but I’m afraid he can’t be a TVB tip !
Let’s hope that at least one of the two horses that are tips, can get the month off to a good start (if a little belatedly). And if they can’t I just hope that non of the horses that I didn’t tip, make me regret my decision to leave them alone…
TVB.
I looked at the 3.45 and I like the way Koup de Kanon moved 2nd LTO and LTo he raced very well aswell. I just tink in this race that Ubi Ace is a rock solid Each Way at these odds, his form against Via Galilei, Edgardo Sol and Celestial Halo. I wouldnt bet on Shadows Lenghthen he lost 53 lenghts against Ubi Ace already, I would stay with your Koup de Kanon choice.
ReplyDeleteIf you simply look at the form book, then you are right in that Shadows Lengthen has to find 55 lengths with Ubi Ace on their running at Wetherby in November.
ReplyDeleteHowever, things are rarely that simple in this game…!
If you look at Shadows Lengthen’s runs this season, you will see a horse that has been progressing with each run:
He had a pipe-opener at Doncaster on the flat, where he was allowed to bowl along in front, but finished well beaten.
His first hurdles race of the campaign, was the race at Wetherby, were he was ridden with more restraint, but weakened quickly when put under pressure.
Next time out, he ran much better at Bangor to finish third – but was unable to quicken in the closing stages.
That was the run that put him spot on. Next time out, he won a shade comfortably at Doncaster.
His final run, suggested he was still progressing, as he travelled nicely but didn’t get home over the 2m4f trip.
The point is, he took on Ubi Ace, on the second of those runs (his first run of the season over hurdles) when he clearly wasn’t cherry ripe. If he had taken him on at Doncaster, in his penultimate run, I would suggest that he wouldn’t have been beaten 55 lengths !
There is also the matter of the weight turn-around. Shadows Lengthen is 14lb better off with Ubi Ace today – that alone should account for a good chunk of the 55 lengths he was beaten, ignoring the fitness aspect.
Finally, there is the price discrepancy: when I looked last night, Ubi Ace was 8/1 whilst Shadows Lengthen was 12/1. That suggests that Ubi Ace is 50% more likely to win that Shadows Lengthen, but I don’t see it that way…
To be honest, I think you can pick holes in the form of Ubi Ace. Nothing that he beat at Sandown has done anything subsequently, and he is also lumbered with top weight.
I think Koup de Kadron is a more likely winner – but again, price was an issue yesterday evening.
At the end of the day, it is all about opinions – and whatever the result, this is a very trappy race, which I think it is difficult to have a strong opinion on.
Few results would surprise me and the winner could easily be the horse who gets the best ride or a little bit of luck when required.
I’m just hoping that horse will be Shadows Lengthen !!
As you said, your horse improved a lot and raced a decent race off this weight, well done.
DeleteAnd what a start it is, nice one Andy and thank you. Top class picking as always mate.
ReplyDeleteNot bad Andrew not bad at all......
ReplyDeleteTara Royal a very good tip mate, very good reasoning behind it aswell, well done, respect.
ReplyDeleteWhat a great call Andy thanks for all the effort you put into the blog
ReplyDeleteThanks for another great tip!! :)
ReplyDeleteWhat a race !! Amazing........thanks as usual ;)
ReplyDeleteTop tipping with Tara Royal. He was in my notebook after Donnie. I thought he needed 2m4f and was out for a run today but McCain's comments that he would ridden closer to the pace and your preview convinced me to go in each way. Very well done!
ReplyDelete