It always seems a little unfair, when I read a race almost perfectly – and make nothing on it. However, that is exactly what happened today…
I could only see a case for 2 horses, and they had the race between them all the way up the home straight.
Unfortunately for us, we came out on the wrong side of the result, with Coolbeg gradually getting the better of Somewhatinevitable.
Of course, it would all have been different, had Paddy Brennan not managed to escape the carnage that took place at the middle fence down the back straight; it might even have been different if Coolbeg had not cut up Somewhatinevitable when jumping the third last – but these things happen.
On the plus side, Somewhatinevitable did demonstrate that he has a fair chunk of ability – just not as much as Coolbeg.
He also demonstrated that he has a little bit of temperament (for a few moments, it looked like he might not start), so that is something to be wary of in the future.
Whether I would follow him again, depends on how good Coolbeg proves to be. I suspect he could be quite a decent animal – but it was a shockingly poor race today, so it was impossible to tell.
I’ll keep an eye on the first and second when they next run – hopefully the performance of one will be an indicator to he ability of the other…
Hi TVB - Tough luck with the selection today. I'd say a "2" in the form figures will mean your selection will likely be underpriced nto.
ReplyDeleteI've been watching more midweek racing these past few weeks than I use to and one thing that strikes me is the market being fairly accurate on the drifters from certain stables. Obv I've always been aware of this but you can get a fair indicator from the market moves as to how the race will shape up. Imo the race you tipped in today was a good example when you compare morning prices vs SP.
Somewhatinevitable was just unlucky that he ran into a better horse (who was the only horse in the race with the potential to be better than him).
ReplyDeleteThese things happen – but it is always a bit frustrating when you are ‘nearly’ right…
With regard to market moves, then I think you are spot on. The market is getting to be a more and more accurate predictor of the outcome of a race.
It would be interesting to know whether you could make a profit following these ‘steamers’. I’d always thought not – but if you can find the right ones (there are still plenty of well backed horses that lose) and back them at the right time, I suspect it might well be possible…
One things for sure though, you certainly don’t want to be on a late drifter nowadays…