January monthly summary

The cold snap may not be good news for the tipping – but it should at least enable me to get on top of the admin, which has to be a good thing ;)

When I had a ‘proper’ job, I used to hate having to produce a monthly report – but now I do it out of choice, it is something I rather look forward to.
I find it really interesting to analyse my performance for the month and see where I got things right – and wrong !

Fortunately, there was a little more of the former than the latter, during January, which was good to see, after the disappointment of December…

Firstly the headline figures:

38 selections (in 34 races)

36.5pts staked

15pts profit (so an ROI of 41%)

The first thing to point out, is that I’ve recorded the number of races, in addition to the number of selections.

This is in response to me tipping multiple horses in some of the more competitive races (normally on a Saturday). 

Obviously, this makes no difference to the overall P&L for the month – however, when I start looking at how the horses actually performed, it does become important.

If I tip 38 horses in 34 races, then the maximum number of winners I can tip is 34. Not even I can tip multiple winners of the same race !.

The second thing of note from the headline figures, is that I staked significantly less points and in less races, than I did in December. The numbers are actually much closer to those posted in November.

I think the less races,was due mainly to me reacting to having less time. Simply, I didn’t look at as many races as I did in December, so I was always unlikely to tip in as many of them…

The less points, is probably a result of my conservative nature kicking in, partly in response to the poor December. Only 2 selections in January warranted 2pt bets – compared to 8 in December. I think I need to try and find a middle ground in this area…

Looking at the results in more detail:

9 of the selections finished first or second – which is around the target of 25% (just above or below, depending on whether you look at the number of selections or the number of races). Unlike December, 5 of these selections won – and this is the biggest single difference between the 2 months.

A further 5 selections finished third – but non fourth. Meaning that that just under the target 50% of selections, were placed (which is where I aim to be).

Average odds of selections were again just below 13/1, which is fine.

Interestingly, the 5 winners was actually more than I managed in November, yet the profits for the month were significantly less.

This is due in part to the fact that 2 of January’s 5 winners, were marginal bets (Reindeeer Dippin and Module). Although it would have been better if I had staked more on these 2 horses, the reality is that without a conscious switch to more marginal bets, both would most likely have been missed…

The ratio of price taken to Betfair Starting Price (adjusted for points staked) was roughly where it has sat throughout this ‘project’.

If you have simply bet every selection tipped in January, at the odds advised, to the stake advised – and then layed off the bet at BSP, you would have made 11.59pts profit.

With 10.6pts profit in November and 13.3pts profit in December, there is getting to be a scary consistency in this area !!

As I suggested earlier, if there is one area where January was weak, I think it was the staking. There were only 2 bets of 2pts – and non of more than this.

That said, I have no issue with the staking on any of January’s winners – apart from maybe Ockey De Neulliac, though I did reduce the potential stake on him because of ‘the Ferdy factor’ !

So, all in all, I think January can go down as a very solid month – and probably a fair reflection of what I can achieve.

From a profit perspective, it sat bang in the middle of November and December, which again, suggests it is a fair representation.

Despite the passing of Christmas, time continues to be a big issue for me – though I’m not sure there is a lot I can do about it.

As I’ve mentioned before, I fit the tipping in around my other commitments and they are currently running at a greater level than expected.

This situation is not likely to change this month, so I’ve just got to deal with it.

That said, I think I dealt with it reasonably well during January, so hopefully, I will be able to do the same during February !!

TVB.