Cheltenham Day 1

The wait is over – the week that the remainder of the year revolves around has finally arrived – the Cheltenham festival is here !!

And what a week it promises to be…

In a way, this moment in time is as good as it gets – pure anticipation of what lies ahead. I’m sure there will be countless ups and down – highs and lows – but right now, in the calm before the storm, everything still has the potential to go perfectly !!

That won’t actually happen of course – but hopefully we will have enough ups to offset the inevitable downs – and if luck happens to smile on us, then who knows what might occur !

As you will have seen, I’ve been quite liberal with my Cheltenham tipping. However, each tip was as carefully thought out as any I have issued in the preceding 4 months.

Cheltenham is unique is so much as it is always in your mind, so studying the form for Cheltenham doesn’t actually take anywhere near as long as it does ordinarily.

It’s simply a question of weighing up the variables and checking out the odds on offer.

Let’s hope that I’ve got sufficient calls right to make this a profitable – as well as enjoyable – week !!

Supreme Novice‘s Hurdle

19 runners and at least a dozen can be given a chance…

Worse still it is very difficult to draw comparisons between the various different form lines, so an element of guess work is required – with the available odds and hence that all important ‘value’, a big factor in selections…

My main fancy for the race is the horse that Gigginstown have evidently nominated as their number 1: Trifoloium…

He’s an ex-French horse who took a few runs before he finally broke his duck over hurdles in Ireland. That victory coincided with the fitting of cheek-pieces – and he has not looked back since…

He won his second hurdle race at Limerick on St Stephens day (Boxing day) – but it was his next outing over hurdles that really drew him to my attention.

In that race, he cruised up along side the now 158 rated So Young, approaching the second last, before that more experienced rival quickened away from him.

On his final outing, Trifolium was seriously impressive, pulling right away from Simeon, who re-opposes him tomorrow.

The big unknown with Trifolium is the ground. All his form is on soft or heavy ground, so it remains to be seen how he will handle a quicker surface. However, if he does cope with it, I think he will take all the beating.

In addition to Trifolium, I am proposing a couple of small each way bets on two other Irish trained horses…

Dylan Ross has been mixing it with the very best in Ireland – and generally coming second ! However, he has a very high cruising speed and I think that the quicker ground and bigger field could make the difference for him.

Expect to see Paul Carberry sat quietly out the back, and then to start picking off his rivals one by one.

Whether he will be good enough to pick them all of, is another matter – and even if he is, I’m not sure he is mentally tough enough to stay there ! But at around 8/1 to be placed, I think he is worth a small play…

In a similar vein, Distant Memories was not far off the best of this field, on the flat. He also made a successful transition to hurdles before finishing behind Dylan Ross and Midnight Game, at Naas.

On that form he can’t beat either of them tomorrow, however he did make a bad mistake at the second last that day – and he will be much better suited by the quicker ground that he will encounter tomorrow.

I struggle to split the home contingent: Cinders and Ashes should run well – I’m just a little concerned about his getting up the hill. Colour Squadron is another one that I could see running well – but his wayward tendencies at the end of his races would have to be a worry.

At the end of the day, I’m happy to stick with the 3 at decent prices and hope that the Irish get the meeting off to a cracking start !!

Arkle Chase

You maybe won’t be too surprised to hear that I’ve lost my appetite for this race a little…

I’ve written enough about this on the blog, so I won’t write much more on it here – but suffice to say, the Arkle without Peddlers Cross, won’t be the same race as an Arkle with Peddlers Cross in the field…

As I’ve said before, this race simply boils down to whether Sprinter Sacre is as good as he is being made out to be. If he is, he will win – but I some how doubt he will be…

That is not to say that he won’t win – he may very well do so – just that suggesting he is a better horse than Moscow Flyer, seems like a rash thing for Barry Geraghty to have done. In a way, I hope he is right – racing needs it’s superstars and if Sprinter Sacre is that good, he will be a superstar, make no mistake about that.

However plenty of potential superstars are proclaimed – but few actually reach the those lofty heights…

I actually think that it is quite easy to predict how the race should unfold: Cue Card is likely to make the running (Joe Tizzard has said he will – and I think it is his best chance of success). Sprinter Sacre will sit in just behind him – probably taking a strong hold.

Menorah will make too many mistakes – and the Irish horses won’t be good enough.

Geraghty will ask Sprinter Sacre for an effort round the home turn – and he will challenge Cue Card. The acid question is: what happens next…?

If Sprinter Sacre is as good as they say, he will lengthen away – that’s what Moscow Flyer would have done. However I suspect it might turn into a bit of a scrap.

Cue Card will fight back; Al Ferof will be finishing fast – and Sprinter Sacre will have to hold on. He may be good enough to do that – but then again he may not…

Anyway, that’s my prophecy on how it will unfold – and in that scenario, I would be happy to be on Al Ferof at 5/1 – in the knowledge that if Sprinter Sacre did hold on, I would get my money back !

Fortunately, that is the bet I have as I followed the ante-post advice on the blog !
Maybe I shouldn’t be down about the race after all ;)

Festival Handicap Chase

I’m happy enough to take on the market leaders in this particular race…

Whilst I rate Quantitativeeasing as a horse, he will be some animal if he can successfully carry 11st12lb to victory. That said, I would still take him over Hold on Julio, he ran in snatches and made mistakes, when winning at Sandown. He will need to improve if he is to take this contest. The Package is potentially the most interesting of the 3 market leaders – but only David Pipe and his team really know if his is in the form required to win a race such has this after an absence from the track of 18 months (though the market will doubtless be very informative, just before the off)…

Instead, I am going with 2 progressive horses: one is still a novice and whilst the other is a little more experienced, this will only be his sixth outing over fences…

The first is Baile Anrai, who was a decent novice hurdler last seen and actually finished a very creditable second to Fingal Bay in the Persian War novice hurdle at Chepstow in October. That was a tremendous performance, as he was only beaten 6 lengths by the winner, who would have started hot favourite for the Neptune Investment hurdle, had he not been ruled out through injury.

Despite that promise, Baile Anrai’s attention was then switched to fencing – where he has been gradually progressive.

The big concern is his jumping. He has fallen twice in his four outings – and they have been in smaller fields. However, it simply can’t be ignored that he is potentially thrown in at the weights – he could literally be over a stone better than his handicap mark.

Therefore, if he does jump round without blemish, he will take the world of beating and 16/1 seems a very fair price about that possibility.

The other selection is Zarrafakt…

It has taken his connections a little while to work out that the key to him is long gaps between his races. However, they have figured it out now and it is almost 8 weeks since he last ran…

That was at Wincanton,. When he simply toyed with Aldertune and Richards Sundance - both of whom ran very well at Sandown on Saturday.

Zarrafakt was raised 12lb for that win – but it is difficult to know just how much he had in hand. It’s unlikely to be a stone – but then his jumping comes with less risks !

Again, at a price of 16/1, he seems worth a risk.

Mossley and Pentiffic were the other 2 that caught my eye, but the jumping of both would be a concern.

On balance, I’m happy to be represented by Baile Anrai and Zarrafakt.

Champion Hurdle

Only 10 runners go to post for the prime hurdle race of the season – and it will be a shock if the winner doesn’t come from the first 5 in the betting.

Hurricane Fly is probably the most talented horse in the race – an assertion supported by the fact he is unbeaten in his last 7 outings, including in last years Champion. However, he is also quite fragile. That said, assuming he is fit and well – and nothing untoward happens during the race, he will take all the beating…

Zarkandar is all about potential: he is unbeaten over hurdles, with last seasons Triumph hurdle included in his list of victories. But that also signifies his potential Achilles heal. His is only 5 years old and horses of that age have a very poor record in the Champion hurdle. In fact, only one has won in the past 25 years – and that was in freakish circumstances. Many have tried – but generally, they lack the physical maturity to compete with their elders, off level weights.

Of course, that is not to say a 5 year old can’t win: if he is of exceptional ability (and Zarkandar might well be) or if the opposition is not up to scratch. However, Hurricane Fly is very much up to scratch – so it is difficult to see Zarkandar taking his measure.
Next year might be a different story of course...

Oscars Well threatened to be a very good horse this season, but hasn’t really delivered. He ran really well in last seasons Neptune novice hurdle, cruising into the lead round the home turn, before fluffing the last. There is always a chance that the return to Cheltenham and quicker ground will see him put in a better performance, but he’s not for me.

Rock on Ruby is a different matter. He finished 6 lengths ahead of Oscars Well at last year’s festival – and has continued his progression this season. He has only run over hurdles 6 times in his life, so there could still be improvement in him. At 12/1 or bigger, he would be worth a small a saver.

However, for the main bet, I have gone for Binolcular…

He is a bit of an enigma – but there can be little doubt that when on song, he too is a prodigious talent.

He was on song on this day 2 years ago, when he bounded up the hill for a comfortable victory in the 2010 champion. However, he has not been on song many times since that day...

That said, his last outing at Wincanton did seem to suggest that maybe he was still up to the task. He toyed with Celestial Halo that day – and whilst that one may not be Champion hurdle class, he still sets a reasonable standard.

The key aspect of that apparent return to form however, was that it was Binocular’s first run following a breathing operation. If an inability to breath properly is what has been causing Binocular to under-perform, then sorting it out could see him back to his brilliant best. If that is the case, then he and Hurricane Fly could end up having one hell of a battle.

In short, unless Rock on Ruby has taken another big stride forward, the only horse I see capable of beating a top form Hurricane Fly, is Binocular. In the hope that the breathing operation has returned him to his peak, I think he is worth a small play to topple the Fly and regain the hurdling crown

Cross Country Chase

When I first sat down and looked properly at the declarations for day 1, Balathazar King was my strongest selection…

The seasoned amongst you, will recall that we were on him when he ran in the cross country race at the December Cheltenham meeting.

That race descended into farce, with all but 3 of the runners taking the wrong course.

Balthazar King was one of the disqualified runners – and although it is impossible to say where he would have finished that day, he was still very much in with a shout, when his race came to an abrupt end.

Balthazar King apparently broke his cheek bone in the mellay and so has been out of action since.

Bizarrely this could prove to be a blessing in disguise though, as he invariably runs his best races when fresh. The other big thing in his favour, it that all of his best form is on quick ground. The ground on the cross country course will be significantly quicker than on the other courses, as it is not possible to artificially water it.

The case for Balthazar King is made stronger by the fact that there are chinks in the armour of at least a couple of his main rivals:

Scotsirish is a class act – but he prefers cut in the ground and isn’t sure to stay the marathon trip; whilst Garde Champetre is now 13 years old and unlikely to be the force he once was.

Uncle Junior and Sizing Australia aren’t as easily dismissed – but they are plenty short enough in the betting.

In fact the other one of interest is Maljimar. He has run well at the festival in the past – including in this race last season. He was sent off favourite that day and was cruising entering the home straight before emptying up the hill.

I suspect it might be the same story this season – but he has clearly been aimed at this race by connections, who must think he can get home.

At the prices, he is worth a small saver – but Balthazar King is the main bet.

David Nicholson Mares Hurdle

Although no horse is ever unbeatable – particularly at the Cheltenham festival – Quevega must get as close to a ‘banker’ as it is possible to get…

True she hasn’t run for almost a year – but it was the same story last year and she absolutely bolted up.

That was her third win on the bounce in this race – and it is difficult to imagine her not recording a fourth tomorrow, all things being equal.

That said, I feel I have found a tremendous bet to at least give her a race – and who knows, maybe even bustle her up a little ;)

Terre Du Vent had clearly crept under the radar of the odds compilers. I was a bit surprised when I saw her at 33/1 over the weekend – but literally staggered to see her at 50/1 on the opening show today…

I guess if you just look at her form figures, then 50/1 is not too surprising – but to say that a single ‘F’ doesn’t really tell the story, is a bit of an understatement…

Terre Du Vent was a high class staying mare on the flat, in her native France. There she won a couple of listed races – and finished just a few lengths off the winner in a group 2 and a group 1 contest, only last year.

She has been sent over to the UK and put into the care of Tom George, presumably with this race as her main objective. George already trains a number of horses for her owner, including the top class Nacarat and our old friend, Module.

Terre Du Vent made her hurdling debut in the Dovecot novice hurdle at Kempton on Racing Plus chase day in February.

She was well backed that day, despite taking on, amongst others, Grumeti, who was vying for Triumph hurdle favouritism.

Coming round the home turn, she looked like she was going to give him a good run for his money – and traded at just above 2 on BF, before taking a crashing fall at the second last.

However, what that race did show was that Terre Du Vent had an aptitude for hurdling and this coupled with her proven ability, should make her a potent hurdling force.

Whether she is potent enough to cope with Quevega, is of course a completely different matter – but, with improvement from the Kempton run pretty much assured, she could well be capable of coping with the remainder of her rivals – the best of whom are 140ish rated performers.

If Quevega wasn’t in the race, she would almost be a maximum bet – and the 14/1 on offer by Stan James without the favourite looks a great bet.

However, I’ll stick with the EW option – at 33/1, it’s still over 8/1 a place – and there is always the possibility that Quevega may not perform to the expected level ;)

Centenary Novice Handicap chase

The final race of the day – and the third great bet (in case you’ve not been paying attention, Balthazar King and Terre Du Vent are the other 2 !!).

However, a little like Terre Du Vent, I fear that it might not be quite good enough to be a winning one.

This time however, the reason has nothing to do with the opposition – and everything to do with the horse himself !

Vino Griego is a massive talent – and actually finished fourth in this very race last year (off a pound higher mark). Furthermore, he looked sure to bolt up that day, as he took up the running on the home turn, going very strongly.

However, Vino Griego is a law unto himself. He didn’t really finish his race that day – and a combination of that and sloppy jumping, invariably manage to catch him out.

However, the ability is there – and one of these days, everything will fall into place.

I really hope that day will be tomorrow – and it certainly isn’t beyond the realms of possibility, provided Jamie Moore can ride him with sufficient confidence and strength.

As you may have gathered from the way I have staked the bet, I have a horrible feeling that he will almost get it right.

I can see him being a few lengths clear jumping the last – and then just fading up the hill. I hope I’m wrong – but we are well placed financially if I am right.

If he does get nailed in the shadows of the post, then I think the horse most likely to get to him is Carrickboy – and not just because he is trained by Venetia Williams !!

He won really well at Hereford last week and is just the type of horse that Venetia is able to run up a sequence with. Even with a 5lb penalty for that success, he is not badly treated and should find conditions ideal.

I’ll be more than happy if he doesn’t quite manage to reel in Vino Griego – but I think he is worth a saver, just in case !!

 

Summary of bets for Day 1

1:30 Supreme Novice hurdle

Trifolium 0.5pt win 14/1

Dylan Ross 0.25pt EW 33/1

Distant Memories 0.25pt EW 50/1

2:05 Arkle Chase

Peddlers Cross 2pt win 6/1 (ante-post)

Al Ferof 1pt win 5/1 (ante-post)

2:40 Festival Handicap Chase

Baile Anrai 1pt win 16/1

Zarrafakt 1pt win 16/1

3:20 Champion Hurdle

Binocular 1pt win 5/1

4:00 Cross Country Chase

Balthazar King 1.5pt win 14/1

Maljimar  0.5pt win12/1

4:40 David Nicholson Mares Hurdle

Terre Du Vent 0.5pt EW 33/1 & 0.25pt EW 50/1

5:15 Centenary Novice chase

Vino Griego 0.75pt EW 25/1 & 0.5pt place 6/1

Carrickboy 0.5pt win 16/1

13.5 points staked in total