I did wonder whether to post this tip – particularly as I missed the early 16/1 with Ladbrokes. However, on balance, I think it is worth a small play – so that is what I am suggesting !!
Leicester 3:40
This is quite a competitive race. In fact, I would go so far as to say, I wouldn’t be overly surprised if any of the runners won. As I’ve mentioned previously, in races where that is the case, I am always drawn to the outsiders…
Toby Belch is an outsider because he has apparently run disappointingly on his last 2 outings this term.
I say apparently, because to my eyes, he ran pretty well last time out – but the consensus seems to be that he didn’t and as a consequence, he has been dropped 8lbs in the handicap !
If you watch the race, you will see that he travelled round the outside throughout and yet still jumped the third last in the lead. He faded from that point, but in what was a stronger race than tomorrow’s I don’t really think that can be considered a disappointing run.
Certainly if Toby Belch is able to run close to his hurdles form, where he ran to a rating in the 120s, he must go close tomorrow off a mark of 108.
Furthermore, he has always looks like the sort who would do better over fences – and the ground tomorrow should suit him well.
If you add into the equation, the current form of his stable – and the fact that he is being tried in cheekpieces for the first time tomorrow, you have to come to the conclusion that he has a decent chance – certainly better than his odds imply.
As I said at the beginning, no result would surprise me. If forced to nominate the most likely winner, I would go for Plum Pudding – but a quote of 4/1 is tight. I am also interested to see money for the Venetia Williams trained Samurai Way. Victory for him wouldn’t be a complete surprise – though it would be a little irritating (considering the trainer), especially if he were to beat Toby !! Let’s hope at least, that scenario doesn’t unfold…!
good luck with the selection andy nice to see somone think outside the box when it comes to tipping and not just state the obvious
ReplyDeleteOh I can never be accused of following the crowd Derek - hence some of the losing runs - LOL !!
ReplyDeleteIn all seriousness, if you just make 'obvious' selections, you can be pretty sure that you will lose over time...
To make this game pay, you have to be prepared to go against the masses. The trick is to find a profitable edge that others have dismissed (and I guess that Toby fits that profile !).
Of course, he may not win tomorrow (and probably won't) - but provided he, or his like, win more often that 1 time in 14, I won't be complaining too much...
TVB.
Toby Belch tipped at 14/1 -- SP 11/4F what a plunge in price andrew. Can I borrow you crystal ball Please:-)
ReplyDeleteMark
It was unbelievable Mark !
ReplyDeleteThough I would have preferred him to stay a 14/1 shot and complete for a lucky win... Still, if I keep getting that close, the law of averages will be forced to come into play again !!