8th January - Selection rationale

There is a reasonable card at Hereford tomorrow and I’m hopeful that I’ve got a good bet for the handicap chase that will be run at 3:30.

Douryna was hugely impressive when wining a handicap chase at Huntingdon last March off a mark of 91. Unfortunately, she was so impressive, her mark shot up by a stone as a consequence. However, she then proceeded to run really well in the mares novice chase handicap final at the Newbury March meeting (from 10lb outside the handicap) and her rating was raised a further 8lb as a consequence…
Her 4 subsequent races have suggested that mark was beyond her – but she showed definite promise in the second of those races (and to a lesser extent, the third of them).
That was on her seasonal debut at Wetherby when she ran really well in a class 3 chase.
Whilst she appeared at the time to maybe need that run, I suspect that might not have been the case…
When you look at Douryna’s career record, you will she that she seems to run her best races after a break. She seems to be able to run a couple of decent races after a break – but if asked to race a third time, things tend to go to pot !
Last time out was her third run of the season – and the worst by some margin.
It is now over 2 months since she last saw the track and as a consequence, I would be optimistic that she will be able to run to her best.
If she can, off a mark of 106 – with a talented 7lb claimer on board – and with ground/trip seemingly ideal, I think she should be able to go very close.

1pt win Douryna 11/1