I might have hoped that the day wouldn’t disappoint – but as has been the case most days recently, it did !!
Lucky Landing ran almost exactly the same race as he did last time out…
He travelled really well until the home turn – and then as soon as pressure was applied, he stopped to nothing. It does look like he has a breathing issue – and it also looks as if the tongue tie didn’t resolve it.
My guess is that we won’t see him for a while and he will be operated on.
In that scenario, I might be prepared to get involved with him again (the way he travels demonstrates he has significant ability) – but if connections persevere with him in the short term, it will be without my money on him…
Pocket Aces and jockey Tom Cannon, got no further than the fifth fence.
Pocket Aces made a mistake – and young Mr Cannon couldn’t stay aboard.
In truth, it didn’t look like the worse mistake ever – but I guess that’s part of the deal when you have an apprentice on board.
Pocket Aces then proceeded to jump round the course like a buck – and would all but have won the race, if it wasn’t a requirement to finish with your jockey on top !
I would be prepared to ignore this run and give him another chance.
The big eye-catcher was Midnight Tuesday, who pulled like crazy in the early stages but still looked likely to win coming down to the last.
I would expect him to go very close next time out – though it is unusual for fancied horses from the Pipe stable not to be backed, so he may just have to be watched…
Firstly Happy Birthday
ReplyDeleteYou sounded really bullish with your Lucky Landing write up yesterday
Confidence seemed to stem from the fact that you thought the Market Rasen run was promising and a decrease in stamina would be ideal
Even though todays race was over 5.5 furlongs less Im not convinced the race was a major drop in stamina demands from M/Rasen
Market Rasen is a tight,sharp track ,Towcester is the most demanding course with its punishing up hill finish,Landing Light did drop from a class 3 to a class 4 but this meant an actual increase in physical weight carried of 9lb
This combined with the tough course would have negated the drop in distance in my opinion
You may be totally right that the horse has a physical problem of some discription but If he runs again at an easier track or over shorter especially if dropped a couple of pounds would be very interested to see how he gets on
suppose the answer will be if he is off a long time a breathing problem is suspected by connections
Anyway keep up the good work
Regards Draquay
Thanks for taking the time to post a decent response, it’s appreciated.
ReplyDeleteI do think that today’s race would have presented less of a stamina test for Lucky Landing. In the Market Rasen race, he travelled easily to about half a mile from home: today, he again travelled strongly to about half a mile from home - even though he was running over half a mile less. I agree that Towcester is a stiffer track – but the stiff part is the finishing straight and he was beaten before he reached that, so it’s impact can’t be considered. If he had started rolling about on the climb from the final fence to the wining post, I might have agreed with you – but that wasn’t the case, he was beaten long before that.
I think the key point, is that he stopped in both races as soon as he was put under any pressure. That suggests a breathing issue – something that is backed up by the presence of the tongue tie. I hoped it would cure the problem (assuming he actually had a problem) – but it would appear that it didn’t.
The other reason for my confidence today however, was that is was a poor race – I think that is borne out by the fact that the winner had been beaten 71 lengths and 53 lengths in his 2 previous races. I still feel sure, that if Lucky Landing had run in the race without physical issues, he would have won – and probably quite easily.
Of course, we’ll never know for sure. Though I will be monitoring his progress from this point on, to try and build a full understanding of him. One way or another, I’ll be doing my best to ensure the money lost today is only on loan !!
Nil desperandum, your efforts are appreciated.
ReplyDeleteCheers K - I know they are, by most...
ReplyDelete