Thursday 1 December 2011

1st December - Race reviews

I think it’s fair to say that the month could have got off to a worse start ;)
Just the one winner – but it did have the biggest stake I’ve risked so far riding on it’s back, so the P&L is looking pretty good !
It’s nice to start a new month with a win, as it immediately takes the pressure off.
The run of near misses at the start of last month probably caused me to be overly cautious on a couple of occasions (something I can be guilty of at the best of times !).
Going into day 2 of the month with a sizeable profit will hopefully reduced the likelihood of that happening (without encouraging recklessness !!)

So, onto the performances of today’s tips – starting with the high-light of the day…

I fear it might be difficult to write too much on the performance of Fiendish Flame, without sounding smug !
To be honest, after he had taken the first 2 hurdles in the lead – and in a relatively straight line – I knew that it was going to take some performance from Kells Belle to beat him.
Sure enough, Fiendish just ambled through the race, never looking in the remotest trouble – and generally jumping as straight as a gun barrel !
In fairness to Kells Belle, she would have had to have nearly 2 stone in hand to have beaten Fiendish today – and that wasn’t the case (nor was it ever likely to be).
In a way, it would have been easier to write this if Fiendish had been beaten – because win, lose or draw, he was a cracking bet. I honestly doubt I’ll find many better during the next few months (though I will try !).
In simple terms, if he jumped straight(ish) and provided Kells Belle wasn’t a super-star, he would win ! 11/1 on that scenario was value in the extreme !
I would have been happy to take 6/1 last night – so the SP of 11/2 seemed about right (though I would still have been interested in that price).
Of course, if his jumping had been all over the place again, or if Kells Belle had cruised up to him approaching the second last, then I would have looked pretty stupid !
But I get paid all this money to make tough calls (sic) – so that’s what I do !!
Anyway, suffice to say that non of the field ever looked like getting within a dozen lengths of him – Kells Belle included !
A follow up might be a bit trickier as his handicap rating will rise significantly for this win – though I reckon he could still be competitive off any mark in the 130s…

Over at Market Rasen, Lucky Landing ran a really creditable race – even though he was pulled up !!
He jumped well in a share of the lead and travelled nicely to about half a mile from home. He then weakened rapidly and was pulled up.
It looked to me as if he simply didn’t stay the 3 miles. It will be interesting to see how the handicapper reacts to this run, but over a more suitable trip, he could still be of interest.

The same couldn’t really be said of Tarkari.
I thought he ran a lifeless race and I would definitely need to see more before considering getting involved with him in the future.
He was held up at the back of the field and closed a little towards the end of the back straight. However his ‘run’ soon petered out and he came home in his own time.
A most disappointing effort…


Finally, I would just like to acknowledge the congratulatory messages that I have been receiving through Twitter.
When I started the blog, I hoped that it might get more comments and that a ‘virtual’ community might be formed via the blog.
However, I acknowledge that I am probably blogging a bit too much and so the comments that I am getting are quickly getting lost in the blogs history.
Twitter provides a more timely platform for celebration – and, to be honest, my ego doesn’t really mind where it receives it’s flattering !! Long may it continue !!
TVB.

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