Wednesday 28 December 2011

28th December - Selection rationale

I was unsure as to whether to tip tomorrow…
On the one hand, I was quite keen on finding something in the 2:30 race at Leicester. I’m familiar with a fair chunk of the field, and so feel I’ve got a good insight into how the race might develop. However, I couldn’t find a totally compelling case for any of the runners and so have been left with one which I feel has a chance better than it’s odds imply…
The horse in question is Quipe me Posted, whom I tipped last time out at Doncaster.
He actually ran a fair race that day – but his jumping was decidedly slip-shod and if he repeats that tomorrow, he won’t win !
Still, I think it is worth a small gamble that he won’t. He’d not shown any particular jumping frailties in the past, so hopefully Doncaster was a one-off.
Compared to Doncaster, he is now running off a 2lb lower mark; in a race a class lower; and with more suitable (quicker) ground. He should also be at peak fitness, as this will be his third run of the campaign.
There are some theoretical doubts about the trip – but he seemed to be staying on well enough last time and if he can get close to repeating the form he showed last season, when beaten by Rileyev, giving that horse 2lb, then he will go very close tomorrow…

0.5pt win Quipe me Posted 14/1

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