It was good to see all 3 domestic cards get the green light this morning – particularly Haydock, where there was most doubt and where my 3 selections for the day are running.
There is also a nice looking card at Ascot – but try as I might, I couldn’t find a convincing angle into any of the races.
I’ll be watching them closely though, as I’m sure the big races will reveal many clues for the forthcoming months…
So, onto today’s selections:
Haydock 2:10
I can only imagine how desperate the conditions at Haydock will be this afternoon…
Half an inch of slush onto top of ground that was already heavy, must have left the going only just on the right side of raceable.
It will take a particular type of horse to cope today – and I can foresee very few finishers in most of the races…
I tipped Reindeer Dippin last time and was really disappointed when he was beaten by Featherbed Lane. He was in no way unlucky that day – just unlucky to run into such a promising opponent.
There is a danger he will be similarly unlucky today – but I can see no reason why he won’t run a very big race regardless.
The thing about Reindeer Dippin, is that he relishes the type of conditions that he will get today – and you can't say that of many horses !
He is also reasonably handicapped (just 1lb higher than last time) running over an ideal course and distance – and carrying a reasonable weight (11st 1lb).
In short, I can see no reason why he won’t run a very big race – he is definitely in the Buffalo Bob category !
I have 2 concerns: firstly, I don’t know why Jason Maguire isn’t on board. He is stable jockey to Donald McCain and I would therefore expect him to have the pick of his runners. He has sided with Across the Bay – who is reasonably handicapped and should also handle conditions. I would have preferred him on the Reindeer, but he’s not…
The second concern is that Reindeer might run into another very progressive rival (in the Featherbed Lane mould). The most obvious candidate for that, is Moonlight Drive. He has only run 3 times under rules and certainly looks progressive. However, his ability to handle ground like today’s would have to be taken totally on trust – and as the son of a Presenting mare (who generally have a strong preference for quicker ground) I would be wanting more than the 6/1 on offer, with those kind of doubts.
In summary, I think Reindeer Dippin is a very solid selection,. I will be surprised if he can’t go close and am optimistic that he might be good enough to win.
1pt EW Reindeer Dippin 9/1
Haydock 2:45
Atouchbetweenacara really caught my eye when running very well last time out at Chepstow.
It had been a long time since he has shown anything worthwhile, but the Chepstow run really did seem to signal a return to some kind of form.
Assuming that wasn’t a false dawn, then there can be little doubt, that he is very well handicapped today. Now rated 128, he is running off a mark 20lb lower than at his prime. He also has the services of apprentice Harry Challenor, who takes another 7lb off his back, meaning that he will only be carrying 10st 2lb today. The importance of carrying such a low weight in today’s gruelling conditions, can’t be under-estimated. Prior to his last run, I would have been concerned that today’s ground wouldn’t suit Atouchbetweeacara. However, he handled heavy at Chepstow -and if you can handle it there, you can handle it at most places !!
The other horse I want a little saver on, is Our Island. He hasn’t really had his conditions so far this year – I suspect he needs a real slog. He will get that today and could well prove that he is significantly better than his current 128 rating.
It will be a hell of a performance if Wymott can win this off 11st 11lb – and whilst Cannington Brook would have to rate a danger, I just wonder if he will really be suited to a war of attrition…
0.5pt EW Atouchbetweenacara 16/1
0.5pt win Our Island 14/1
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