Thunder Child must be the most written about, untipped horse on the blog – until now…!
In fairness, I did actually try to tip him early in November, but he was withdrawn from his intended engagement that day.
I also toyed with tipping him last time out – but he was up against 3 unexposed sort – and running over an unproven distance.
He ran disappointingly that day but, as I said at the time, I am prepared to forgive that run. Certainly, his movement in the market prior to that race, suggested that someone thinks he can be very competitive off his current mark, in the right event…
Only time will tell whether tomorrow’s race is the ‘right’ event. However, the distance of 2 miles looks to be more suitable than the 3 miles he was asked to race over last time and the opposition also look a lot more exposed…
My main concern is probably the suitability of the ground. Thunder Child seems to have demonstrated a preference for quick going – and it is likely to be on the slow side tomorrow.
However, he hasn’t conclusively proved that soft ground is unsuitable – and the drop back to 2 miles should off-set, to an extent, the more taxing ground conditions.
I won’t go into the detail of why I think he has a good chance on form – if you want the logic for selecting him, you should check out the blog posts from 9th & 24th November.
If I’m being totally honest, I don’t see Thunder Child as a rock solid selection – but I do think that he is extremely interesting and that he has got a definite chance.
The 10/1 available early with Paddy Power therefore looked too big – I would be happy down to a price of around 15/2…
1pt win Thunder Child 10/1
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