29th February - Selection rationale

I mentioned last night that I might have a tip for today, if the horse in question was priced up as I hoped – and that priced remained until lunchtime…

Well, Longitude was the horse in question: he opened at 16/1 – and whilst he is now only 12/1, there have been a couple of withdrawals (including one potential danger), so I’m happy to accept the lower price.

In truth, he is a risky selection, that has required a fair bit of reading between the lines – but the price compensates for that, and I’ve only staked half a point on him, so any damage will be limited.

The case for Longitude is all based around potential – with just the odd hint from the formbook…

He is making his chasing debut today – and as you will doubtless recall from the past, I’m always quite interested in a horse that makes it’s chasing debut in a handicap.

Longitude is particularly interesting because he has acquired his rating via just 3 hurdle runs (the minimum normally required to get a handicap rating).

The first of those showed some promise – but the last 2 weren’t quite as good (this is not an uncommon pattern for a horse trying to get a favourable handicap mark).

He is also being stepped up in trip today and tackling the longest distance he has faced so far. However, he is bred to relish the task, so I see this as a positive move.

I also see as positive, the fact that his connections have waited for the better ground before letting him make his handicapping debut. His best hurdles run was on good ground, so hopefully he will be happy with today’s going.
His trainer, Henry Daly, has been in much better form this season, having been ravaged by a virus last season. He sends just the one runner to Southwell this afternoon..,

Finally, the race itself, doesn’t seem to contain any outstanding performers (maybe not too surprising for a class 5 event). I’m also heartened to see that nothing in the race has been particularly well supported - yet !

I actually think that if Longitude is going to win, he will be well supported (connections will have a feel for how good he could be), so we may well know our fate before the tapes go up.

If he’s 6/1 at the off, I’ll be optimistic – but if he’s 20/1, my expectation won’t be quite so great !!
TVB.

0.5pt win Longitude 12/1