29th February - Update

There is a really nice meeting taking place at Bangor tomorrow afternoon – one which I was confident I would have some tips for…

This confidence increased further when I saw that Lucky Landing was running in the penultimate race on the card – and also that, superficially at least, it looked quite a competitive race.

I was expecting him to be priced up at around 7/2 and was hoping for anything up to 5/1 (I can be quite optimistic over these kind of things !).

As it turned out, he opened at 5/2 – and was soon cut to around 2/1.

That price is probably fair (I expect him to win) – but it is borderline value (I can give 3 or 4 others a chance and you have to retain a slight doubt about his physical well being).

As a consequence, I will be watching the race and just cheering him home (you have to do that with your old favourites, don’t you ?!).

One to look out for in the race, is the top weight Fishoutofwater. He ran a huge race last time out and has been dropped 2lb following it. The only trouble is, he needs really soft ground and he won’t get that tomorrow; he also hasn’t run for nearly 3 months – and he has to carry top weight.
All that said, with his connections, if the money comes for him, as a fan of Lucky Landing, I’ll be worried…

Elsewhere on the Bangor card, I like the look of Big Easy in the 3:25 – but he is 5/2 favourite for the race. The other one that appealed was Cantlow – but he is 7/1 second favourite…

In the 4:25, Dawn Commander looks very interesting – but he is also favourite (at 4/1); whilst the other one that caught my eye in that race was Requin.

He was mentioned by a guy who left a comment on the blog a month or so ago – and I’d be interested to know if he feels that Requin has a chance back over hurdles tomorrow (I do !)…

At Folkestone, Wide Receiver looks interesting in the 4:15 – but he’s also favourite.

I’m guessing that you can see my issue…!

There is one other horse that I’m quite interested in tomorrow – and he’s not favourite. However, the race he is running in has only been priced up by 1 bookmaker.

If he is still available at the same price tomorrow, when the market has more strength, I will send him out as a tip (though thinking about it, this will have to be around lunchtime, as I’m busy tomorrow morning – despite what I said in the email !!).

There are just a few other things that I would quickly like to cover:

Firstly, I sent out a ‘saver’ tip for the Arkle chase earlier today. I will update the Arkle posting in the ‘Cheltenham festival’ area of the blog, later this evening, to cover the thinking behind that move.

On the subject of the Cheltenham festival – it looks like I will be doing a ‘Special’ !  

The initial response to the proposal, has been really positive. In fact, sufficient people have already registered an interest to convince me to go ahead with the idea.

What I’ll do next, is remove the poll and create a ‘Special' section in the Cheltenham festival area. This is where I will put details on how it will work – plus payment details.

It will go up in the next couple of days and anyone who wants to receive the Special will then have plenty of time to make a payment.

I’m really looking forward to producing the daily previews – and hopefully, they won’t disappoint !

Finally, as tomorrow is the last day of February, I would ordinarily produce a monthly summary.

However, as the month has only been 2 weeks long (due to the bad weather) and as March will be of a similar length (due to the fact I’m stopping tipping after Cheltenham), I’m going to combine to 2 periods and make a new ‘month’ for reporting purposes.

As this period will cover the first 2 weeks of March (up until the start of Cheltenham) and the last 2 weeks of February , I have decided to call it ‘Maruary’ – LOL!!

TVB