28th February - Selection rationale

I thought long and hard about putting up Somewhatinevitable tomorrow and I don’t know why – it’s a tremendous bet !

The trouble is, it might not win – and whilst I can handle tipping double figure losers, I’m not so keen on tipping a loser at 4/1.

Still, value comes in all shapes and sizes – and Somewhatinevitable is value tomorrow, make no mistake about that – it’s just not packaged in the standard sized ‘value’ box, which I tend to get my selections from…

I tipped Somewhatinevitable the last time he ran – and was pretty sweet on him that day.

That race was over 3 miles in the soft at Huntingdon and having travelled really powerfully for the first 2/3rds of the race, he made a mistake at the first fence in the back straight and weakened very quickly.

The fact he weakened so quickly that day, is my main concern – particularly as he has shown a tendency to be a weak finisher in the past.

However, if he is ever going to get home, then 2 miles on quick ground is when it will happen – and he gets those conditions tomorrow.

I’ve mentioned in the past that there are 3 aspects to a bet: the horse; the opposition and the price.

I may have a slight concern about Somewhatinevitable tomorrow – but they are trivial

compared to the reservations I would have if I was tipping any of his opponents.

Somewhatineviable only has 5 runners to beat – and 2 of them, Kercabellec and Western Pride, are over a stone wrong in the weights and are both very exposed. I’m not saying they can’t win (I would never do that) but I would say it was unlikely.

Le Reveur must be a great horse to own, as tomorrow will be his ninth run since Christmas !! However, he’s got no nearer than fourth on his previous 8 attempts and that was on the AW at Kempton. By default, he may be able to improve that record slightly tomorrow, but I fancy that is all he will do…

Top weight, Tempting Paradise, sets the form standard, but he hasn’t run for 6 months and doesn’t look particular well handicapped. It will be disappointing and a little surprising, if he is good enough to win.

Which just leaves Coolbeg, whom I see as Somewhatinevitable’s main rival. Like the selection, he possesses some potential (which non of the others runners do) – but he also has significant question marks over him: He hasn’t run for over 3 months – and he finished last in that race. The form of his trainer, Tom George, is a big positive – and you have to think that he is capable of better than he has shown so far – but at 2/1, there is little value, with those kind of doubts.

Somewhatinevitable is twice that price – and really only has the one nagging doubt (whether he will last home).

There is no obvious pace in the race, so I’m hoping that Sam Jones will grasp the nettle and try to make all on him. Somewhatinevitable jumped well when given his head at Huntingdon and if the same thing happens tomorrow, I can see him drawing steadily clear of his rivals. Hopefully, by the time he jumps the last, he’ll be so far in front, that his suspect stamina won’t get put to the test !

That’s the theory, anyway ;)

2pt win Somewhatinevitable 4/1