22nd February - Selection rationale

I guess non of my regular followers will have been too surprised to see me tipping in the 3:30 race at Doncaster tomorrow, as it features a couple of the blogs favourites, in Mark the Book and Atouchbetweenacara.

What might have come as more of a surprise, is to see me tipping against them both…

I’ve mentioned in the past, how important it is to get a thorough understanding of the horses you are backing. This enables you follow them when conditions are right - but it also enables you to oppose them when conditions are unsuitable…

Now, I’m not saying that either Mark the Book or Atouchbetwenacara can’t win tomorrow – they have been put in as first and second favourites, at 11/4 and 4/1 respectively.

However, I do know that conditions won’t be perfect for either one – so at those kind of odds, you have to look to oppose them…

I would be keenest to oppose Mark the Book. He has a handicap rating that I’m sure he can be competitive off – but 3 miles on relatively quick ground, is not his optimum conditions. If this race was being run in the mud at Chepstow, I’d be all over him – but he doesn’t want a speed test, and that is what this race could end up as…

The ground is a positive for Atouchbetweenacara, but there are 2 issues with him: firstly, the 3 mile trip (I think his optimum trip is 2m6f) and secondly the fact he ran just 5 days ago (and I think he is best fresh).

If you take these 2 out of the equation (and at the available odds, I think you have to), you are looking at a very winnable race.

In fact, there are only 2 runners that I’m interested in: Faasel and Nikola.

There can be little doubt that Faasel has the natural ability to win this – and comfortably.

He was second in a couple of very big handicap chases on his final l2 outings of last season – and off pretty much the same mark he runs off tomorrow.

However, he finished last on his seasonal appearance – and his inconsistency is one of his issues. The other is, that he has a nasty habit of finding one too good.

If he wins tomorrow, it will be because he outclasses the opposition. That is not impossible – and I’ve had a saver on him just in case – but he could not be a solid selection.

Much more solid is Nikola.

He actually won a very similar chase off just a pound higher mark on his seasonal debut. He also ran very well at Cheltenham on new years day, on his penultimate appearance. He should really have gone very close that day, but his jockey went for home too soon and he ran out of steam over the final couple of fences.

He gets to run off a 5lb lower mark tomorrow, which is very generous. It is helped by the fact that he ran very disappointingly last time out – and for no obvious reason – sp you have to be prepared to forgive that run…

The other big issue with Nikola, is the form of his stable. The Twiston Davis yard tends to run hot or cold – and it is definitely going through a cold spell at the moment.

Consequently, I’ve held back on the staking of Nikola. If he could be guaranteed to run to the level of form he showed either first time out of at Cheltenham, then he would be a much stronger bet.

However, with a slight doubt about his form; a bigger doubt about his stable form and the possibility that Faasel might bring his ‘A’ game to party, he ends up as just a single point bet.
Let’s hope I’m regretting my conservatism at 3:45 tomorrow ;)

1pt win Nikola 8/1