14th February - Update

Despite the lack of recent opportunities, I’m not particularly taken by either of tomorrow’s NH cards.

That said, there is a very decent (class 2) chase at Ayr, which I fully expected to have a tip in – especially when I saw that our old friend Buffalo Bob was running in the race.

It struck me as particularly significant that Kim Bailey was prepared to take the horse all the way up from Gloucestershire to the west of Scotland, on a Tuesday afternoon in February.

As some of you will recall, we have been on Buffalo Bob twice already this season – both times to a maximum stake – and on neither occasion did he let us down (finishing third, when we had backed him EW).

However, last time out (when I was quite keen on him but didn’t tip him because of the price), he ran very disappointingly – and for no obvious reason.

I found that quite concerning. Buffalo Bob is a horse I feel I know very well – and I just couldn’t see any reason for his poor run (apart from him maybe being in need of a break).

Connections have decided to reach for the blinkers tomorrow – but honestly, I can’t have that…

He is one of the most game, genuine horses you are likely to see, so I’m not sure how they are expecting them to liven him up – he’s never struck me as a horse who needs livening up !

It strikes me more as an act of desperation – and that clearly isn’t a good thing.

Obviously, I might be wrong – but that is my reading of the situation – and why I can’t select Buffalo Bob in the race.

However, the one thing the blinkers are likely to do, is make him run a little more freely – and for a horse who already prefers to front run, that could see him going off at quite a pace.

That isn’t good news for either Diamond Frontier or Pentiffic – both of whom also like to make the running.

Diamond Frontier has been fitted with a tongue tie after disappointing last time, so he seems likely to be ridden aggressively again.

Pentiffic ran really well from the front in a big handicap at Cheltenham last time – I also can’t see why connectiosn would choose to ride him any differently tomorrow.

As a consequence of all this, 2 horses are likely to be disappointed tomorrow- and 1 is likely to have to go faster than ideal.

I would therefore be forced to draw a line through all 3…

Of the other 4, I couldn’t back Dinarius in his current form. He ran really poorly last time and I would have to see something positive before I could consider backing him.

Which leaves 3…

Best Lover is probably the most solid of the 3, in that, despite being 10, he is apparently still progressing and should be well suited by tomorrow’s test.

However, he has to carry top weight, is unproven at this level and is 3/1 favourite…

I also couldn’t back Categorical at a best priced 5/1. I can see no reason why he shouldn’t run his race – and I could certainly see him finishing in the first 3, but I’ll be surprised if he is good enough to win.

Therefore, the selection – and would be tip – is Charingworth…

He should be well suited by the conditions of tomorrow’s race  - and the way it will be run. He is in good form (having won last time out) and has a good apprentice on board.

All this, yet for some reason, I can’t bring myself to tip him at 6/1…

Maybe it’s because 6/1 seems to small a price (even though there are only 7 runners !) or maybe it’s because he has an inconsistent profile. Maybe it’s because he is trained by Ferdy Murphy (who despite Ockey De Neulliac’s success, is not a trainer I could ever fully embrace !) or maybe it’s because there is a danger the race won’t actually be run as I expect it to.

Whatever the reason, I’m not putting him up as a tip – though I guess I might have a small wager on him.

Whether you choose to follow me in, will probably depend on how much you buy in to the above rationale…

Until tomorrow.

TVB.