26th February - Selection rationale

Fontwell 3:00

I don’t suppose that regular readers will be surprised to see me tipping Pocket Aces today (Ciaran certainly wasn’t !).

I have already tipped him 3 times this season, making him the most tipped TVB horse – and tipping him today, has sent him clear of the pursuing pack !

I won’t go into detail on why I think he can win today – if you look through the posts on the previous occasions that I’ve tipped him, you’ll see why I fancy him.

The only issue in my mind with regard to today, was whether I could forgive his last time out run, when pulled up at Fontwell.

In truth, I didn’t find it too difficult to let him off that particular run…

As you may recall, that was the race when Marodima just ran away from the opposition, wining unchallenged by over 50 lengths.

The race was also run over very soft ground and from around half way, it ceased to be a contest.

Up until that point, Pocket Aces had travelled very well – and although he was never going to get near the winner, I had him down as the second best horse in the race.

He was actually pulled up on the run to the last, but I’m pretty sure that was just to save him having a hard race for minimal reward.

Pocket Aces has been given 6 weeks to recover from that run, which should be more than enough. I think he will be better suited by the quicker ground today and he gets to run off a 3lb lower mark.

It’s difficult to be too bullish about his chances bearing in mind what has happened the last 3 times I have tipped ! However, I think he has a really good chance today – and I’m hoping that for the second Sunday in succession, me keeping faith with one of our old favourites, will reap rewards…

1pt win Pocket Aces 10/1

Towcester 4:25

There is a fair bit of guesswork and supposition involved here, but I think Fiveways is worth a small play…

He had some decent bumper form a couple of seasons back, including when finishing runner up in a bumper run at Cheltenham’s October meeting.

Presumably he then had some problems, as he wasn’t sighted for over 2 years, until he made his hurdling debit at Uttoxeter last November.

He was quite well fancied for that race (sent off a 6/1) and he travelled fine until lack of fitness began to tell…

He has subsequently run twice in novice hurdles, over reducing trips. The suggestion with that, is he was running to get himself a reasonable handicap mark.

The mark he has been allocated is 98 – and today he has his first start in a handicap.

As I said, there is a fair bit of guesswork involved here, but there has to be a chance that his handicap mark under-estimates his ability (when he was running his bumpers, he certainly looked like a horse who would ultimately get a much higher rating).

I can see lots of dangers – and potential plot horses in the race. However, if Fiveways is as good as he could be, there are all going to have to go some to beat him.

0.5pt win Fiveways 11/1