I like to think that TVB selections can come in a variety of shapes and sizes…
Whilst some are quite predictable, others definitely appear from left of field – and I think that Charming Lad falls into the latter category…
The case for Charming Lad, has 2 components to it: firstly, a need to oppose a falsely priced favourite; and secondly a desire to follow a potentially strong form line…
Dealing with the reasons on the sequence specified:
I can fully understand why Ballyoliver is favourite for tomorrow’s race.
He ran really well in a similar race at Ay, just last week. In that race, he arrived on the scene, 4 fences from home, apparently cantering. And whilst he didn’t quite manage to get home in front, he lost little in defeat, finishing second, just 5 lengths off the winner.
However, on the flip side: he had a hard race that day – which he didn’t even win and this looks a slightly tougher contest. More importantly, his last time out run has been missed by no-one and consequently he has been installed as a 7/4 fav for tomorrow’s race. I could maybe have him as favourite – though I can see vulnerabilities – and simply, 7/4 is too short…
However, on the flip side: he had a hard race that day – which he didn’t even win and this looks a slightly tougher contest. More importantly, his last time out run has been missed by no-one and consequently he has been installed as a 7/4 fav for tomorrow’s race. I could maybe have him as favourite – though I can see vulnerabilities – and simply, 7/4 is too short…
I always think that it pays to identify ‘strong’ races and follow runners who perform with credit in them.
Charming Lad made his seasonal debut in a novice handicap chase at Newbury on New years eve. The race looked strong before hand – and the form has subsequently received a few boosts from the runners who competed in it. Toby Belch finished just in front of Charming Lad that day and he was subsequently backed off the boards, before finishing runner up at Leicester; whilst Ring Bo Ree, was just ahead of Charming Lad when he fell at the second last fence, he has subsequently won at Southwell…
Charming Lad himself, was well backed for the Newbury race, considering it was his chasing debut and he hadn’t set foot on a racecourse for 9 months.
He also ran pretty well, disputing the lead until tiring up the home straight, he has been dropped 2lb for that run – and I would expect it to have brought him on.
As a hurdler, Charming Lad had also shown some decent form. Particularly when runner up to the now 125 rated Mister Hyde. Invictus finished back in fourth that day, and he is now fourth favourite for the RSA chase at the Cheltenham festival.
In summary, Charming Lad is an unexposed chaser, who has already shown glimmers of potential – and who I think is ready to step his form up to a higher level.
The opposition isn’t weak, but it is headed by a horse who is arguably a falsely short price and as a result of this, there is value elsewhere.
Charming Lad cannot be considered a rock solid selection – but I do think he is a very interesting one – and one whom I believe has a live chance at a very attractive price ..!
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