25th February - Selection rationale

Tomorrow provides a relatively quiet afternoon’s racing, for a Saturday. Proof – as if it were needed - that Cheltenham is now just around the corner…

Realistically, tomorrow is the final day, when any of the horses with real Cheltenham aspirations, are likely to run prior to the start of the festival…

There is a smattering of Cheltenham possibles competing in the various races at Kempton. Most notably in the first race on the card – the Adonis juvenile hurdle. A shake up in the Triumph hurdle market could well follow the conclusion of that race.

That’s assuming that market has not been turned on it’s head 5 minutes earlier, when the incredibly well touted Minsk, makes his hurdling debut at Fairyhouse.

His is already vying for Triumph hurdle favouritism – and he hasn’t yet jumped a hurdle in public ! Assuming he shows himself proficient in that department, he could be a silly price for the big race by tomorrow evening – and that is regardless of what happens at Kempton…

The high-light of the Kempton card is the Racing Plus (formerly Racing Post) chase.

Planet of Sound looks rock solid in this to me – so much so, that I was half tempted to tip him, even at 4/1 !

If he drifts to 5/1 tomorrow morning, you can expect another email ;)

However, as things stand, I’ve just gone for the 2 tips tomorrow: 1 at Kempton and 1 at Newcastle.

I know that the various other distractions I have at the moment, mean that I’m currently not at the top of my game – so a cautious approach seems most sensible.

That said, I think both have a decent chance tomorrow – particularly Panjo Bere, who I do think is way over-priced…

So, onto the cases for the days selections…

Kempton 2:30

It’s an interesting thought, that if this race had been run when I started my blogging in November, Panjo Bere would have had to give Hunt Ball just under 5 stone ! (69lb to be precise) – tomorrow, Hunt Ball will be giving Panjo Bere 7lb

I appreciate that horses are improving/regressing all of the time – but that is some weight turnaround !

Clearly Hunt Ball was ridiculously well handicapped when he embarked on his chasing career off a mark of just 69 – but eventually the handicapper will catch up with him and running tomorrow off a mark of 127, could be the day…

Panjo Bere appears to be on the decline but as his run at Kempton over Christmas demonstrated, his decline might not be quite as rapid as the handicapper seems to think…

He ran well that day, to finish fourth to Fruity O’Rooney, over a 3 mile trip, which probably stretched his stamina. Next time out, he made no show at Newbury – but that was again over 3 miles and also on a big left handed track, where all of Panjo Bere’s best form has been on tighter right handed tracks.

Panjo Bere gets to run tomorrow off mark 9lb lower than he ran off over the Christmas period – and it strikes me that the official handicapper is taking a bit of a risk with that assessment.

So too were the bookmakers who put him in at 20/1 and 16/1 when they priced up the race earlier this evening.

It is not an overly competitive affair and Panjo Bere has a definite chance – he was no 20/1 shot, that’s for sure !!

I did ponder for a little while, over how best to stake him. Each way would have been the call – but with just 8 runners and one of them a possible NR, I decided to go win only with the majority – with just a place saver. I have to admit that I considered having more on him because of the ‘value’ element. However, I was in a similar position a couple of times during the cold snap (with Plein Pouvoir and Numide) and with hindsight, I figured that I had probably over-staked those 2 horses (even though neither actually got to run !).

The bottom line is, that if Panjo Bere wins tomorrow, I’ll be happy with 20 points profit. Anything more than that would just be greedy ;)

1pt win 0.5pt place Panjo Bere 20/1

Newcastle 3:25

I tipped Incentivise when he ran at Exeter early in December.

I was pretty sweet on him that day, based on a promising come back run at Bangor, the previous month. However he ran disappointingly at Exeter, appearing to find 4 miles under a burden of 11st7lb, just too much.

He followed that run with another disappointing run at Bangor – again under a big weight – and he’s not been seen since…

My hope is that he’s been absent from the course for over 2 months, because something was not quite right with him.

Certainly based on last seasons form – and his first run of this campaign – he should have performed better than he did in his last 2 outings.

On the plus side, the disappointing performances have seen his rating drop by 7lb from his seasonal debut – and yet he was competitive in that race.

The extreme trip and ground should pose no problem to him tomorrow – and it is nice to see him carrying a lower weight (10st 7lb).

It also strikes me as significant that Richard Lee sends up just the one horse from his Herefordshire base – and that Charlie Poste also travels all that way, for just the one ride.

If Incentivise is back to last season’s form – or even the form he showed first time out this season – then I can see him going very close tomorrow, at what is a very decent price…

1pt win Incentivise 14/1