15th November - Race thoughts

It’s pretty poor stuff tomorrow…
Just a couple of NH meetings at Folkeston and Fakenham respectively – but it is low grade fayre, with small fields to boot.
Ironically, a couple of the horses I’m keeping an eye on are running – but neither will be much of a price (due the strength of the opposition). I also had a look at the best race of the day (Folk 2:30) and whilst I don’t have a tip in it, I do have a view…!

Folk 1:30

In some ways, I think this is the most interesting race of the day – and there is a potential angle into it…
Arbeo, Ballyclough and Tony Dinozzo were all fair bumper horses last season – and all 3 make their hurdling debuts tomorrow.
The last 2 mentioned represent strong connection and consequently could be well-backed.
If the price is right, I might be tempted by a small play on Caulfields Venture, who caught my eye on his seasonal debut at Chepstow and now has the advantage of the others of both a recent run and some hurdling experience.
I’ve no idea what price he might be put in at – but anything around 5/1 would be potentially interesting…


Folk 2:30

If I had tipped tomorrow, it would most likely have been in this race…
I spent a little while looking at it, but couldn’t come up with a compelling angle.
The 2 that interested me most, were Edgefour and Set in her Ways – with a slight preference for the latter.
However, it wouldn’t be a tip that I would make with any conviction – and at odds of 7/1 and 5/1 respectively, I didn’t find it too difficult to move on…


Fakenham 3:40

Realisation was a horse that caught my eye last time out at Chepstow…
He was baulked when trying to make his run and then eased when beaten.
He is fair performer on the flat, where he is rated 83. If he can get anywhere near the equivalent rating over hurdles (around 120) he should win tomorrow.
However, I have 2 major issues with him: firstly the presence of Langley, who is a complete unknown quantity, making his debut for Tim Vaughan; and secondly his price of 11/4 – which leaves little margin for error.
On balance, I’ve decided to take a watching brief on the race…