Saturday 5 November 2011

6th November - Selection rationale

Ffos Las hosts a decent card tomorrow afternoon and the early bird bookmakers priced up the 4 handicaps that take place during the afternoon.
I had an interest in most of the races, but non more so than Frontier Dancer in the 3m handicap hurdle that takes place at 3:10.
The season before last, Frontier Dancer was a decent handicap hurdler for Nigel Twiston Davies. He reached a rating of 139 over hurdles, following a good second in the Gerry Fieldon hurdle at Newbury.
He didn’t progress over hurdles from that point and was put over fences last season. After a victory first time out, he became progressively more disappointing and was sent back over hurdles for his final outing of the campaign.
That was also disappointing and he was evidently sold after that as he makes his first appearance for Lawney Hill tomorrow. She has a tremendous record wit horses like this, which she acquires from other stables and I have a feeling that she has the raw material to work with again here.
I was tempted by the 8/1 put up by B365 – but the 12/1 offered by Ladbrokes really was a stand out price (which is probably why it didn’t last long – tho hopefully long enough for some of you to get it).
Obviously there is some guess work involved here – and there are legitimate concerns that the favourite, Caddy Master, could still be one step ahead of the handicapper. However, all of this is more than factored into the price and Frontier Dancer deserves to be the biggest bet I have put up so far !

2pt win Frontier Dancer 12/1

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