Thursday 3 November 2011

3rd November - Update

It’s been a quiet couple of days for the early bird races. There are 2 reasons for this: firstly, a lack of decent quality jump racing, both today and tomorrow; and secondly a set of very defensive prices issued by the early bird bookmakers.
The former is a pet irritation of mine with UK NH racing. Come Saturday, we will doubtless be overwhelmed with decent racing – but mid-week, forget it. Prior to the Cheltenham festival, there are very few races run mid-week above grade 3. Tomorrow, grade 4 is as good as it gets – which is particularly poor for a Friday. I appreciate that racecourses need spectators – and spectators are in greater abundance on a Saturday – but there should be a balance. They manage it much better in Ireland – and that is with far less fixtures.

In fairness, the handicap hurdle run at Fontwell at 2:20 is quite an interesting race. There are a number of unexposed runners, who could be significantly better than their current ratings.
The most interesting of these is probably Mr Chow, whom I could easily see running up a sequence, now that he is under the care of David Pipe.
However, this is pure speculation on my behalf and whilst I’m quite prepared to speculate if the odds are generous and the opposition limited, 6/1 in a race with a few other interesting types, doesn’t really fit that bill.
Potentially more interesting as a bet is Magot De Grugy, who contests the following handicap chase at 2:50.
A couple of years ago, he was competitive off a rating of 110 – tomorrow he is running off a mark of 98. If I knew he was fit and ready to run, he would be a good bet at 5/1 – but I don’t, so he can’t be.

Early bird betting only accounts for around 10% of my betting activity (though I would like to increase it), so I’m sure I’ll find plenty of other opportunities tomorrow, either in the novice/maiden races – or over in Ireland, where more than half of my betting activity takes place - but that is a story for another day !

Until tomorrow evening then…
TVB.

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