I’ve been prolific with my posts over the past week or so, but things are going to slow down over this weekend… I’m tied up for most of tomorrow and Sunday, so I’m afraid, posts will be thin on the ground between tonight and Sunday evening.
You therefore better make the most of this one: the logic for tomorrow’s tips…
Haydock 12:50
I very rarely back Paul Nicholls/Ruby Walsh runners…
I’m a big fan of both (especially Ruby – though I don’t think he is quite in AP's class ;) ) but the trouble is, I’m a ‘value bettor’ and runners representing this combination are normally over-bet and consequently shorter in the market than they should be...
In theory, you could say that is the case for Indian Daudaie tomorrow – but I’m not so sure…
I like to think that studying form is as much an art as a science – with an ability to read between the lines absolutely crucial…
Based purely on the form book, Indian Daudaie has a fair chance tomorrow - but 6/1 probably looks on the short side.
However, if you look at the more subtle factors, I think they paint a very different picture…
Nicholls only took charge of the horse last Christmas time and if you examine the way he campaigned it, you can be pretty sure he thought it was a very decent animal…
It made it’s debut in grade 2 company at Cheltenham before going over to Ireland to contest a grade 1 race.
It’s 2 other races last season, were at the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals.
It ran really well at Cheltenham before falling at Aintree (when going well).
I just feel that with a summer on it’s back, Indian Daudaie will start to fulfil his potential this season.
Nicholls has said as much himself about the horse – and it is also very interesting that he has targeted it at a race sponsored by it’s owners.
I expect it to be backed tomorrow – and if it is, I think it will win !!
1.5pt win Indian Daudaie 6/1
Haydock 2:30
This is a hell of a race to have a crack at, but I’m going to give it a go…
In truth, I think half of the field can be relatively safely eliminated for one reason or another – and there are 2 runners I want to focus on with a split stake:
Sa Suffit is probably the more likelier winner. He is well treated over hurdles compared to his chase rating and looked to be back in form on his seasonal debut at Kelso.
If he’s the horse I think he is, he should go very close off a mark of 135.
Kayf Aramis is a funny one, in so much as I think he is almost the obvious choice – at the prices ! There is no doubt he is very well handicapped; he should be well suited by the trip/going; he represents top class connections and should have come on for his seasonal debut at Exeter (when I was half interested in him).
If he wins and I’ve not tipped him, I’ll be really irritated – so I’ve tipped him !!
0.5pt win Sa Suffit 16/1
0.5pt win Kayf Aramis 33/1
Ascot 3:20
Again, Rileyev is something of a ‘value’ bet at the prices – having read between the form lines a little !
According to the form book, he can’t beat Imsingingtheblues – who finished well ahead of him at Cheltenham last week.
However, I suspect that Rileyev is being brought to the boil more slowly – and that he will have made the greater improvement from the Cheltenham race.
In truth, I don’t see it as that competitive a race. I think Anquetta is the one to beat (along with Imsingingtheblues) and a lot will depend on how quickly that one is improving…
In short, at the available prices – and with the security of EW – I thought Rileyev was worth a small play.
0.5pt EW Rileyev 16/1
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