Tuesday 22 November 2011

23rd November - Selection rationale

It’s pretty uninspiring stuff tomorrow, with just the 2 domestic NH cards at Wetherby and Fontwell.
Wetherby often produces reasonable mid-week fixtures, but tomorrow’s is a little below standard.
That said, there is very interesting novice chase at 12:55 for which, Charles Byrnes sends across Fists of Fury, from his Limerick yard.
He will take a bit of beating – though Honest John could make him pull out the stops, provided he has progressed from his seasonal debut.
More of a race to watch then to bet in though…

For tomorrow’s tip, I have turned to the 2m handicap chase, which will be run at 2:00.
It really doesn’t look like an easy puzzle to solve, but I’m going to take a chance on the Ferdy Murphy trained mare, Sophonie.
In truth, I rarely back Ferdy Murphy horses – and I suspect I will rarely tip them – but I’m prepared to make an exception with this one.
She has only run 4 times in England: 3 times over hurdles last season and a sole chase appearance this season.
However, she was quite experienced for her age, over both hurdles and fences in her native France, winning a 4 year old chase – and finishing runner up no less than 5 times (sounds ominous !!).
She made her seasonal debut at Kelso 3 weeks ago and travelled really well to the second last fence, but then stopped quickly. Apparently she broke a blood vessel that day, which is obviously a little concerning.
However, provided that was a one-off, I think she should be able to go close tomorrow.
Obviously, I could have put her up EW – but with just 8 runners in the field, that is always a slightly risky ploy – unless she finishes second of course !!

0.5pt win Sophonie 14/1

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