12th January - Selection rationale (part 2)

Fontwell 1:35

I don’t suppose I’ll tip in many 3 runner race – and in truth, I didn’t expect to be tipping in this one..
When I said last night that there was a novice I was monitoring, it wasn’t Penn Da Benn, it was Honest John, who runs in the 1:15 at Catterick.
However, Honest John opened up at 7/2, which seems very tight; whilst Penn Da Ben was a 12/1 shot…

You could almost argue that 12/1 is a price worth taking about any horse in a 3 runner novice chase – it can’t be far off the ‘got lucky’ price (ie. when it’s the only horse that finishes the race !).
If that’s the way it pans out, then I’ll take it – but I think Penn Da Benn has a much better chance than that. In fact, I would be relatively hard pressed to choose between the 3 runners…

A couple of seasons back, Penn Da Benn was a very useful hurdler – in fact he was a 10/1 shot when running behind Andytown off a rating of 135, in the Martin Pipe conditional hurdle at the festival.
He has clearly had issues since then – and probably isn’t as good over fences as he was over hurdles, However, if he runs close to that level of form today, then Carpachine will have to run to a level of 142 to beat him – and I can’t see that happening.
Sherwani Wolf would also need to improve by a stone, which is also unlikely (though slightly more feasible).

Hopefully Sherwani Wolf will make the running today and provide a decent pace – Penn Da Benn definitely needs pace to chase.
In that scenario – and assuming his jumping holds up – then Penn Da Benn is no 12/1 shot.
Hopefully he will be able to prove the point – and If not, we can just hope gets lucky ;)

0.5pt win Penn Da Benn 12/1