1st January - Race reviews

When I was talking of roller-coasters in my earlier post today – and suggesting that there would be some more ups and downs during the next couple of months – I could hardly have realised just how prophetic my words were going to be !!

The very first tip of the new year, Mostly Bob, managed to come from an impossible looking position, to record a gutsy 4 length victory.
Backed down from an early 11/1 (I even saw 12/1 in a place) he went off an amazingly well backed 11/2 joint favourite – showing that, if nothing else, I’ve not lost the knack of picking steamers !!
In truth, I think he got a little bit of luck in the race. Early on, the strongly fancied Richards Sundance fell, causing Minella Theatre to unship his rider. Mostly Bob could easily have been involved in the incident, but he managed to avoid it.
He was also a little fortunate that the other joint favourite, Runshan, was ridden overly aggressively and got into a protracted battle, with outsider Nikola. By the second last fence, both horses were spent forces.
That left the patiently ridden, Mostly Bob, to come through and pick up the pieces.
I don’t honestly think that he was patiently ridden just out of choice – he just wasn’t going well enough to stay with the leaders and his jumping was hardly fluent either. However, as I’ve said before, the one thing you get with Richard Johnson is perseverance – and although his cause looked hopeless, I wouldn’t have been wanting to lay him at 200 on Betfair 3 fences from home, as somebody did (Marv ?!).
Ultimately, he came through strongly and although Mon Mome looked briefly as if he might threaten, once he had successfully negotiated the last, he wasn’t going to be pegged back.
Despite the victory, I wouldn’t be rushing to back him next time out. I think he was a little flattered – and he will doubtless go up a few pounds for this win.

In the very next race, the tip Hidden Keel was again astoundingly well backed.
I tipped him at 14/1 – and he was back out to that mid morning. However, the money eventually came in force and he went off a 6/1 shot.
Sadly, he only made it over one fence- pulling up sharply before the second. He was clearly injured – the only uncertainty was how badly. Fingers crossed that it wasn’t as bad as it looked…
That left the way open for Calgary Bay to bounce back to form. The irony of his victory will be lost on those of you who have only followed my blog – but not on those who followed me on the TFA forum.
For a couple of years, Calgary was my ‘cliff’ horse (ie. I was prepared to follow him over a cliff edge !). That was on the back of a win at this very meeting 3 years ago. I’m not sure if I’ve ever backed him when he has won – but I was certainly cheering him up the hill today !
It’s horses like Calgary bay that make NH racing so special…

So, a high with Mostly Bob, followed by a low with Hidden Keel. What next with Phidipeddes, I was wondering…

Alas, it was to be another low – as the horse ran no sort of race.
Furthermore, the outcome of the race was again tinged with irony as it was Fiendsih Flame who came out victorious.
Doubtless you will all remember him as the horse who prevented December from being a complete disaster.
At 12/1 last night, he could have done the same for January – but I just couldn’t see it…
He was running off a mark over a stone higher than the one he was running off when he won at Leicester; he was running over fences – when he is clearly a more fluent hurdler; and he was running a race where there were 2 other front runners and he needs to be able to dictate.
However, somebody clearly didn’t see the race in the same was as me, as he was hammered in from 12/1 to 9/2 favourite.
Despite crashing through fence after fence, he proceeded to gamely make all and won by a very easy 9 lengths.
Phidippedes meanwhile, was in trouble soon after half way and never featured.
For different reasons, I’m not sure I will be rushing to back either horse next time out...

So, quite a first day of the month – if the rest of the month is as dramatic, I doubt I’ll make it to Cheltenham !
Still it resulted in an 8 point profit, so I can’t really complain – especially not when I consider what proceeded it !

As I mentioned earlier, I am now gong away for a few days.
There is a slim chance of a tip tomorrow – though looking at the early odds, I think it unlikely.
It is also unlikely that I will tip anything at all prior to Saturday – though not completely impossible.
If there are any tips, I will tweet them via my phone – but there is unlikely to be any write ups on the blog to support them.
Until next weekend then…
TVB.