31st January - Selection rationale

As many of you will know already, I took the plunge this evening and switched to issuing my tips by email - a day earlier than planned…

I had tested out the distribution lists earlier in the day and they appeared to have worked fine (I received responses from a number of people on both lists). I still tweeted the tips this evening – and not long after I had sent the emails - so if I did catch anyone on the hop, hopefully the damage was minimal.

It felt a little odd issuing the emails – and took a bit longer than normal – but hopefully I will be able to speed up the process over the next few weeks…

So, onto tomorrow’s racing, where one again, Taunton puts on a really good card.

I honestly don’t know if this is a recent thing – I’d never really considered Taunton to be a venue for good class action – but compared to the relative dross that is served up mid-week at most other courses, they are proving to be an absolute oasis…

There are 2 particularly good races: the handicaps at 3:10 and 4:10 respectively – and I have a selection for each.

If I’m honest, neither selection would be my first choice for their respective races. However, when the races where priced up, around 5:00, there was a fair amount of disparity amongst the early prices. This is an unusual situation, brought about I think, by the fact that all of the early bird bookmakers issued within about 15 mins of each other.

I was therefore able to cherry pick prices, putting us on a couple of horses whom I felt where significantly over-priced.

Needless to say, the bookmakers reacted pretty quickly (I’m not sure how much of that was down to me – though I suspect quite a bit) and the current prices don’t look quite so attractive. However, provided you have got the advised odds (or close to), I think you on a ‘live’ contender for each race, at a ‘value’ price – and, ultimately, you can’t ask for much more than that…

Taunton 3:10

As I’m sure a few of you will recall, we were on Aather last time out, when he made his seasonal debut at Cheltenham, early in December.

He finished well beaten that day, but travelled like a dream, at a course which wouldn’t have been ideal for him.

I was so taken with his performance, that in the subsequent race review, I stated that I was ‘happy’ to have lost, as I was sure it was only money lent !

Roll on 6 weeks and he makes his second appearance on the season at Taunton tomorrow.

Unfortunately, I’m not feeling quite so bullish now – and for 2 good reasons: Ted Spread and Ifyouletmefinish !

Put simply, these 2 horses could be stones better than their current handicap marks, Both have only run twice over hurdles – and on each occasion, they have run well against horses currently prominent in the market for the Triumph hurdle.

Both have endless scope – and it will come as no surprise if they prove to be just too good for their rivals tomorrow.

That said, they have been priced up accordingly, whilst Aather was a general 20/1 shot, on the opening show.

Take those 2 out of the race and I would be very keen on his chances.

The course should suit him much better than Cheltenham and the trip and going will be fine.

My biggest concern now, is that if Ted Spread and Ifyouletmefinsih do prove a class apart, whether the connections of Aather will want him to get too close to them at the finish.

I’m just hoping that those two don’t fulfil their potential and Aather is consequently able to take advantage.

0.5pt EW Aather 20/1 

Taunton 4:10

When I first looked at this race, there were 3 horses that caught my eye: Renard; Nomechecki and Wessex King.

I could see pros and cons with all 3, so decided to wait until prices were issued, to help me make up my mind !

In the initial shows, Renard was priced at 5/1; Wessex King at 7/1 and Nomechecki at 12/1 – and that helped clarify my thinking, no end !!

In fairness, of the 3, I think Renard is just about the most likely winner – however I am a little fearful that he might be done for toe over the sharp Taunton 2 miles.

Wessex King should have enough pace, but I wonder whether he is quite up to this class. He may well be – and if he drifts close to double figures, I’ll certainly have a saver on him.

However, Nomechecki has probably got the least question marks against him.

He travelled really well in a class 2 race over half a mile further, last time out. He appeared not to get home that day, so dropping him back half a mile should help.

In fact, this is the first time Nomechecki has dipped below class 2 in his last 10 outings – and he has run some very commendable races at that level.

His handicap mark has also dropped 5lb since the start of the season – and in what is undoubtedly a very tight race, I’m hoping that will help make the difference for him.

0.5pt EW Nomechecki 12/1