28th January - Selection rationale

It’s always great to see racing from Cheltenham – though today’s card doesn’t grab me quite as much as is often the case…

I suspect that is due – in part at least – to the absence of Grands Crus, from the Cotswold chase. I was really looking forward to seeing him taking on more experienced rivals – but alas it is not to be.

It seems most likely that he will now go straight to the festival (though a novice chase at Newbury is a fortnight’s time, is apparently under consideration). I hope that connections choose to target him at the big one – both for financial reasons and because I think it that race will suit him better – but only time will tell whether caution gets the better part of valour...

Anyway, the Cotswold chase without him in the field, looks a tough one to call.

I’d like to see Captain Chris win – but I would be very fearful of a peak form Diamond Harry. If Paul Nicholls could get the best out of Tidal Bay, he could very well win – but the most solid option is probably Time for Rupert…

All in all, a race to watch, rather than bet in.

The same is probably true of the Cleeve hurdle, where, as always, Big Bucks will take the world of beating.

I doubt anything will get the better of him – but if anything does, Dynaste would be the most likely…

Fortunately that still leaves a few races to bet in (!) and I’ve decided to take a slice of the action in 3 of them, plus the Sky bet chase at Doncaster.

I’ve again gone for a couple of selections in 2 of the races (trying to make very competitive races a little less competitive). Let’s hope we can get at least one winner – whether it is well backed or not !!

Cheltenham 1:30

What a race !

This really wouldn’t look out of place at the festival. A fiercely competitive 16 runner handicap chase, where no result would come as a complete surprise…

I’ve chosen to latch on to a couple of runners that I am very familiar with, in Roalco De Farges and Lexicon Lad.

Both have similar profiles, in so much as they were really impressive on their chasing debuts but slightly disappointing next time out. However, in both cases, their debuts came on left handed tracks and their disappointing runs on right handed ones.

I’m hoping that a return to racing left handed, will see them bounce back to form.

Both horses should be well suited by the conditions of today’s race: 2m5f on good to soft ground and both represent top class connections.

There are very few runners in the race which I feel can be safely discounted, however

combining these two gives odds of around 12/1, which feels about right for 2 chances in 16.

We will certainly need some luck in this one – but, as always, I feel we are in with a shout, so fingers crossed !!

0.5pt win Roalco De Farge 25/1

0.5pt win Lexicon Lad 22/1

Cheltenham 2:05

Hells Bay is probably my best bet of the day…

Despite his odds, I think he has a very solid chance: on recent form; course form and from a handicapping perspective.

His last run behind Calgary Bay, looks disappointing on the face of it, but at the top of the hill, he was in a break away group of 5, and nothing was travelling better…

Ultimately, he didn’t get home and finished a well-beaten tenth, but I suspect the run may have been needed that day.

Hells Bay is a horse who has run some of his best races at Cheltenham: he was runner up behind Time For Rupert, last November (again, travelling all over the winner for most of the race), before finally coming good in the Dipper chase, run at the course on last new years day.

It is that run, which makes him look a seriously well handicapped horse. There he beat Merdermit off level weights, with yawning gap back to the third – but he is now rated 11lb below that horse…

Both trip and ground should be ideal for Hells Bay today – and you have to see it as a bonus that the very promising Brendan Powell takes 5lb off.

Obviously there are dangers in the race – but I’ll be surprised if there are 3 that will finish in front of Hells Bay. Provided his jumping holds up, I think he is a rock solid selection.

0.75pt EW Hells Bay 16/1

Cheltenham 4:15

There is a bit of guess work involved here (!) but reading between the lines, I think Module is worth a small bet at 12/1…

He has only run 3 times in his life – and all of them in France – but he has already shown a decent level of form and was in the process of running a good race in a listed hurdle at Aueteil last time out, when he was brought down at the last.

There is no way of knowing how that form will translate over here – however, the interesting thing is that Tom George has a second runner in the race.

That horse is the very progressive Sivola De Sivola, who could be given a definite chance- and yet, stable jockey, Paddy Brenan is on board Module.

Of course that could be because he is considered the better long term prospect and the stable jockey wants to get a feel of him – but I think it is worth taking the risk that it’s because he thinks Module is the more likely winner…

Aside from these 2, it looks a very trappy contest, with the market being made by the 4 year old, Hinterland. I would be keen to take him on, though finding another one to do so with, isn’t that easy.

On balance then, this is a gamble – but hopefully an educated one ;)

0.5pt win Module 12/1

Doncaster 2:50

Yet another fiercely competitive handicap chase – and another one where I’m giving us 2 chances!!

The first is Shalimar Fromentro, a horse we were on when he last ran, at Aintree, at the beginning December.

We were on him that day despite the fact he was a novice, taking on the Aintree fences. Unfortunately, they proved a bit too much for him and he fell at Bechers Brook. However, he had travelled well until that point and I think it is worth forgiving him that lapse.

I suspect he will ultimately prove himself very well handicapped off a mark of 130 – and today’s test should suit him fine.

The other one I want onside, is Carrickmines. His chances have been dismissed by the bookmakers – no doubt in part because he is 2lb out of the handicap.

However, he is a strong travelling horse, who I think will be well suited by the big field and strong pace that he will get today. The course and distance should also suit him fine and I can see him going very well, at what is a huge price.

0.5pt win Shalimar Fromentro 10/1

0.25pt EW Carrickmines 40/1