20th January - Selection rationale

I was thinking last night, one thing that has fallen apart a bit during this poor run, has been the my staking…
To an extent, it is understandable: you don’t stake 3 points on the likes of Lucky Landing or Ranjobaie, and get burnt too often.
Consequently, my staking has become more conservative (this is a failing I constantly battle against !).
Therefore, I pick out a horse like Ockey De Neulliac – which was a great price in a really weak race – and I have 1 point on it…
Fair enough having a point on Rear Gunner – and a point and a half on Rougham – but by that criteria, Ockey was a 2 point bet as a minimum (ignoring the Ferdy factor !!).
As a consequence of this, I have gone for it a little more tomorrow.
The reason for this is that I feel Mark the Book is significantly over-priced in a relatively weak race.
Sure he comes with risks (though touch wood, not the jumping risks that the other selections this week have had). The risk with him is whether he retains his former ability – and also whether he has recovered from a tough race at Haydock last month.
If his ability is in tact and he is over the Haydock race, then he will hack up – and 8/1 will be an unbelievable price!!

In truth, I’m not overly worried about the effects of the Haydock race: it was more than a month ago and Mark the Book wasn’t given a hard time when beaten – the significant question therefore, is how much of his ability remains...?
That is an impossible question to answer, but the suggestion from the Haydock race was that it is sufficient to go very close in a race like tomorrow’s.
It is true that he was pulled up in that race, but he was still in fifth place entering the home straight. Furthermore, his jumping wasn’t particularly slick throughout the race, so there should be some room for improvement in that department.
Clearly, you would expect him to come on for his first race in 18 months – but in truth, he probably doesn’t need to.
In the past, Mark the Book, has been a horse of massive ability and massive potential. Just 4 runs ago, he went off 7/2 second favourite in a 15 runner class 3 chase at Wincanton. That was on the back of a 44 length demolition of Earth Planet in a 3 mile race at Chepstow (same conditions as tomorrow).
His 3 subsequent races have been in class 1 or class 2 contests – tomorrow he races in a class 4 contest of a mark 114.
Like I said before, if he retains his old ability, he wins !
He also has a tremendous record at Chepstow: 4 runs yielding 2 wins and 2 seconds…
I could go on – but I think you get the point !
Make no mistake, Mark the Book is a risky selection tomorrow – in that he might simply not run a race. However, if he does run his race, I’ll be staggered if he is beaten.
That’s why he warrants a 2 point bet at a time of relative conservatism ;)

2pt win Mark the Book 8/1