I’m struggling to know where to start, with the review of today’s race…!
As you may have gathered, Toby Belch was a bit of a half hearted selection yesterday – the bet was more of an insurance against him winning (which I would have found very annoying if I’d not put him up).
I thought he represented some value at 14/1, and whilst I didn’t expect him to drift, I never could have imagined that he would be sent off 11/4 fav !
That was a plunge of epic proportions ! I’ve not put the numbers into my spread sheet yet, but I’m sure that will make him the biggest steamer I’ve put up so far (tbh, he was probably one of the biggest steamers of the year !).
If ever there was an advert for making sure you got the early price, then Toby was it !
Ofcourse, if you missed the early 14/1, I suspect it was probably available again in-running after they had jumped a fence ! I didn’t actually see the race live, so I can’t be sure – but as he was detached by about 10 lengths and under pressure, then I’ll be surprised if double figures wasn’t available at that point.
In the next twist, Toby came back onto the bridle, and travelled easily for a while – before, once again, hitting a flat spot at the end of the back straight.
Again, I suspect double figures would have been available in-running.
However, Toby then knuckled down and started to race. In fact, he raced so well, he took up the running at the second last and looked sure to win !
He traded at 1.22 at that point – but his earlier erratic behaviour had clearly taken it’s toll and he had no more to give when Don’t Tell Sailor made his final challenge.
So, it was an honourable second and half a point dropped – though in truth, I don’t think I’ve ever had so much drama out of a lost half point !
As for Toby, he clearly has more than enough ability to win a race of this nature off the mark he was running from today. Unfortunately, everyone is now aware of that fact – and whilst some more serious head gear might focus his mind a bit, he is evidently a bit of a thinker and certainly not one to take a short price on…
What a race.... and what a horse! Massive gamble nearly landed but just not near enough. Ran a cracker but used too much steam too early in the race trying to get up with the pace after the bad jump at the first. Imo he definatly would have won easy had that not have happened. To say it was a class pick is the understatement of the year ;)
ReplyDeleteAll in all we were unlucky but as iv said before if we keep backing 11/4 favourites at 14/1 then the bank balance wil keep rising :)
Still would have been nice if he had of won today but we cant win all the time.
Keep up the good work Andy
I'd like to say that I expected it to be backed like that - but I hadn't a clue ! I just thought it had a better chance than it's early odds suggested...
ReplyDeleteUltimately, I ended up disappointed that I lost my fiver - which is strange as I never expected to feel that way about it !
Mind you, how I felt is almost certainly nothing, compared to how the guys who backed it down at all rates, must have felt !!
TVB
Any thoughts on the Thyestes Andy?
ReplyDeleteCiaran
Funnily enough, I considered tipping one in it last night...
ReplyDeleteHowever, the 25/1 available early with WH wasn't there at 6:00 (though I got 34 on BF !) - and I made a conscious decision not to tip in Irish races, when I started this project (I needed some restrictions for my own sanity !).
The horse in question is Paddy Pub. He's been in the doldrums for a while but they fitted blinkers for his last run and they seemed to do the trick. He is very well weigthed on old form and should be perfectly suited by today's test.
There you go - an 'unofficial' TVB tip ;)