7th January - Race reviews

It was a disappointing return to the fray today, with both of the selections finishing well beaten.
Once again however, they were both really well backed – something which gave me food for thought…
In the handicap chase, Atouchbetweenacara, was backed in from a general 10/1 last night (11/1 in a place ) to 9/2 second favourite at the off. Meanwhile, Consigliere (whom I also quite fancied) drifted from 7/1 last night, to 10/1 at the off.
If the prices at the off had been the prices last night, Consigliere would have been the tip !
Of course, that is no use to anyone – but it does give me an interesting conundrum.
Last week, I resisted putting up a horse that was 7/1 in the evening – and it won with an SP of 14/1.
Obviously, it happens the other way too: I wouldn’t have put up Mostly Bob if his SP of 9/2 had been the price available the night before (when he could be backed at 12/1).
In all honesty, I don’t think there is a lot I can do about it. My objective is to find value in the early bird prices – and I think it would be difficult to argue that I do that !
Of course converting that ‘value’ into profits is a different matter. One that you hope will be addressed by the law of averages, over time – but there are no guarantees…

Anyway, on to the performances of the 2 tips:

Atouchbetweenacara ran very freely in his first time blinkers – and whilst for a few fences, it looked as if he might run away form the rest of the field, his early exertions soon took their toll and when he started to make mistakes, the writing was on the wall…
I have little doubt that he will bounce back and win a race this season. However, it will probably be in a lesser class, on quicker ground, after a short break –and without the blinkers on.
That might all occur after I’ve stopped blogging – so make sure you keep an eye out for him in the spring !

Non Dom ran no kind of race. He seemed to resent the application of blinkers and whilst he didn’t get pulled up (which I thought was sure to happen) he never remotely threatened to get involved in the race.
You simply couldn’t back him after that performance – either with or without the blinkers.
He may bounce back I guess, but if he does, I will just be an onlooker…