1st January - Selection rationale

First things first, I would like to wish everyone a very happy, healthy and hopefully profitable, new year – and that includes you, Marvin ;)

When I had the original idea for creating a blog, my plan was just to run it from January 1st to the end of the Cheltenham festival – so the past couple of months have been a bonus (or not, depending on your perspective !).

In truth, the last couple of months have been a roller-coaster ride – which is often the case when you are gambling. I’ve tried really hard to not make it that way – but I’m afraid it really is the nature of the beast.

Doubtless the next few months will have their fair share of up and downs as well – but so long as the nett result sees us ending up higher than we started, I won’t be complaining…

As I said in one of my recent comments, I’ve pulled together the numbers for December and spent a little time analysing them. I’ll continue the analysis today and hopefully find time to produce a monthly report this evening.
I’m away for most of the forthcoming week, so things will be going very quiet on the blog from tomorrow onwards.

There is a cracking meeting at Cheltenham today – plus a very decent card at Mussleburgh - hopefully we can kick off the new month/year in style !


Cheltenham 1:35

Mostly Bob was a very decent novice chaser last season and was actually sent off an 11/1 shot for the ultra competitive grade 1 Racing Post chase. Furthermore, he was running off a mark of 136 that day…
Unfortunately, jumping frailties emerged and he fell at the third fence. His next 3 outings have all been relatively disappointing but as a result, his mark has slipped to 128 – just 3lb higher than his last winning mark (an 8 length win at Doncaster).
Last time out, he ran in a grade 1 chase over today’s course and distance. Once again it was his jumping that let him down – but he did at least manage to complete the course.
If the jumping issues re-surface today, then he won’t win. However, he has doubtless been well schooled at home since his last run and from a pure handicapping perspective, he is very well weighted today.
Trip and going will suit him fine, so provided Richard Johnson can get a tune out him, he should go very close.

1pt win Mostly Bob 11/1


Cheltenham 2:10

I remember the days when the Cheltenham new year fixture was relatively low grade, with the high light being a 4mile plus slog (often run in the mud). How times change…
This is a cracking race – not far off the likes of the Paddy Power gold cup and the 2m5f chase run at the December meeting (the Massey Ferguson, for us old timers ;) ).
However, it has a slightly unbalanced look to it this year, due to the presence of The Nightingale. The Nightingale is rated 167 and to win a handicap of this nature off that kind of mark would be a phenomenal performance. Good as he is, I just can’t see that happening…
His inclusion means that stablemate, Ghizao, gets a racing weight of 10st 13lb – which makes him look attractive. It also means that almost half the field have to carry more weight than the handicapper has allotted them. For most it is only a pound or two – but in a race like this, every pound counts…
One horse not negatively impacted by the compressing of the weights, is Hidden Keel.
The star of Charlie Longsdon’s stable, he was a cracking novice last season and threatened to be even better this season.
That hasn’t materialised yet – he was a little disappointing on his seasonal debut at Carlisle (when thought to need the run) and whilst he ran better next time at Huntingdon, he hardly set the world alight in finishing fourth.
However, I am hopefully he can bounce back and show his true colours today. The quicker ground should suit him well – as should the trip.
I’ve a slight niggle about the course- mainly due to his running style – but he finished fourth over hurdles behind Grands Crus on his only previous run at HQ, so hopefully my concerns will prove unfounded.
I can see a few dangers in the race, headed by Ghizao and Duke of Lucca. However they all come with doubts as well, so at 14/1, I think Hidden Keel is well worth a play.

1.5pts win Hidden Keel 14/1


Mussleburgh 3:00

I’m annoyed with myself again – I’ve missed another price !
Phidippides was 6/1 in 3 places yesterday evening – but seemingly under no pressure.
He is running in a very competitive race today and all of his opponents seem to be getting backed – but not him. This morning however, it is a different matter…
In truth, I can see exactly why – and whilst I honestly don’t think there is a great deal of margin in the 5/1, I simply can’t let him go untipped.
I was hoping that 8/1 might have been available – in which case he could have been a 3 point bet. As that isn’t the case (or nothing like !) the staking has been adjusted accordingly…
The case for Phidippides is as much about subtle factors as it is about form in the book.
I remember watching Phidippides run second at Exeter last season and in his post race interview, trainer Evan Williams made it clear that he considered this horse to be just about the best he had in his yard.
He won comfortably next time out – but has been a little disappointing since then. That was why I was hoping for a price today – but it would appear that I’m not the only one with a decent memory !
First time out this season, Phidipeddes was still cruising when he came down at Wetherby. Connections have waited 65 days before bringing him out again and are prepared to travel from South Wales to mid Scotland, with the one horse.
It strikes me that they fancy him a bit !
The race looks competitive – but most of the horses running at relatively exposed.
Provided Phidippides gets his jumping sorted, I think he will take all the beating.

1.5pt win Phidippides 5/1